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81.
Forecasting VaR models under Different Volatility Processes and Distributions of Return Innovations
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This paper provides clear‐cut evidence that the out‐of‐sample VaR (value‐at‐risk) forecasting performance of alternative parametric volatility models, like EGARCH (exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) or GARCH, and Markov regime‐switching models, can be considerably improved if they are combined with skewed distributions of asset return innovations. The performance of these models is found to be similar to that of the EVT (extreme value theory) approach. The performance of the latter approach can also be improved if asset return innovations are assumed to be skewed distributed. The performance of the Markov regime‐switching model is considerably improved if this model allows for EGARCH effects, for all different volatility regimes considered. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
82.
Mortality models used for forecasting are predominantly based on the statistical properties of time series and do not generally incorporate an understanding of the forces driving secular trends. This paper addresses three research questions: Can the factors found in stochastic mortality‐forecasting models be associated with real‐world trends in health‐related variables? Does inclusion of health‐related factors in models improve forecasts? Do resulting models give better forecasts than existing stochastic mortality models? We consider whether the space spanned by the latent factor structure in mortality data can be adequately described by developments in gross domestic product, health expenditure and lifestyle‐related risk factors using statistical techniques developed in macroeconomics and finance. These covariates are then shown to improve forecasts when incorporated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Results are comparable or better than benchmark stochastic mortality models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
83.
We present a mixed‐frequency model for daily forecasts of euro area inflation. The model combines a monthly index of core inflation with daily data from financial markets; estimates are carried out with the MIDAS regression approach. The forecasting ability of the model in real time is compared with that of standard VARs and of daily quotes of economic derivatives on euro area inflation. We find that the inclusion of daily variables helps to reduce forecast errors with respect to models that consider only monthly variables. The mixed‐frequency model also displays superior predictive performance with respect to forecasts solely based on economic derivatives. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
84.
For wireless ad hoc networks simulation, node's mobility pattern and traffic pattern are two key elements. A new simulation model is presented based on the virtual reality collision detection algorithm in obstacle environment, and the model uses the path planning method to avoid obstacles and to compute the node's moving path. Obstacles also affect node's signal propagation. Considering these factors, this study implements the mobility model for wireless ad hoc networks. Simulation results show that the model has a significant impact on the performance of protocols. 相似文献
85.
多阶段任务系统任务持续能力仿真模型研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
多阶段任务系统(PMS)是一种典型的复杂系统,它包括多个在时间上连续且无相互重叠的阶段任务,执行作战与使用任务的武器装备多数属于这种复杂系统。分析了PMS及任务可靠度、可信度和任务效能等任务持续能力评价参数。结合实际装备系统大都属于可用马尔可夫过程进行描述的可修复系统的特点,为简化模型复杂程度提出了一些合理的假设条件。在此基础上,结合多阶段任务系统自身特点,通过分析多阶段任务系统任务持续能力建模仿真步骤,多阶段任务系统任务效能仿真方法,建立了基于Petri网的多阶段任务系统任务效能多层仿真模型。最后结合常见的"靶场打靶"任务进行了实例验证,并对仿真结果进行了分析。 相似文献
86.
Massimiliano Marcellino 《Journal of forecasting》2008,27(4):305-340
Predicting the future evolution of GDP growth and inflation is a central concern in economics. Forecasts are typically produced either from economic theory‐based models or from simple linear time series models. While a time series model can provide a reasonable benchmark to evaluate the value added of economic theory relative to the pure explanatory power of the past behavior of the variable, recent developments in time series analysis suggest that more sophisticated time series models could provide more serious benchmarks for economic models. In this paper we evaluate whether these complicated time series models can outperform standard linear models for forecasting GDP growth and inflation. We consider a large variety of models and evaluation criteria, using a bootstrap algorithm to evaluate the statistical significance of our results. Our main conclusion is that in general linear time series models can hardly be beaten if they are carefully specified. However, we also identify some important cases where the adoption of a more complicated benchmark can alter the conclusions of economic analyses about the driving forces of GDP growth and inflation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
87.
Increasing evidence implies altered signaling through the neurotrophic receptor tyrosine kinase TrkB in promoting tumor formation
and metastasis. TrkB, sometimes in conjunction with its primary ligand BDNF, is often overexpressed in a variety of human
cancers, ranging from neuroblastomas to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas, in which it may allow tumor expansion and contribute
to resistance to anti-tumor agents. In vitro, TrkB acts as a potent suppressor of anoikis (detachment-induced apoptosis), which is associated with the acquisition of
an aggressive tumorigenic and metastatic phenotype in vivo. In view of its predicted contribution to tumorigenicity and metastasis in humans, TrkB corresponds to a potential drug target,
and preclinical models have already been established. The encouraging results of pharmacological Trk inhibitors in tumor xenograft
models suggest that TrkB inhibition may represent a promising novel anti-tumor therapeutic strategy. This hypothesis is currently
being evaluated in clinical trials. Here, we will discuss the latest developments on TrkB in these contexts as well as highlight
some critical questions that remain to be addressed for evaluating TrkB as a therapeutic target in cancer.
Received 12 October 2005; received after revision 19 December 2005; accepted 11 January 2006 相似文献
88.
在室内空气稳定性的概念和判断依据基础上,对其进行数学验证,根据环境温度垂直递减率的正负将其分为稳定型、中性稳定型和不稳定型.建立不同温度梯度下的数学、物理模型.并利用计算流体动力学(CFD)软件对NH3等污染物侧送风条件下,在室内传播的特性进行模拟,得出不同稳定性条件下污染物扩散的规律.在对污染物下进上出的通风方式的研... 相似文献
89.
阀控非对称缸液压系统建模研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
考虑了阀控非对称缸液压系统中阀与缸之间采用软管连接的情况,构建了系统方程,推导了活塞杆在两个方向,活塞杆伸出和活塞杆缩回时的两个传递函数,分析了两个方向的增益与固有频率,采用了SimHydraulics实物仿真,仿真结果验证了对传递函数的理论分析. 相似文献
90.
为确定Bradley黏附模型与Hamaker假设黏附模型之间的关系和差异,运用Hamaker假设和原子间的Lennard-Jones势能推导出了两平面间的相互作用力,通过与平面间的Lennard-Jones势能进行对比分析,得到了原子势参数与平面势参数间的关系式.根据此关系式将Bradley模型转化为由Hamaker常数描述的黏附模型,并根据Hamaker常数的定义式将Bradley模型最终转化为由原子势参数和Hamaker常数描述的黏附模型.理论分析与仿真结果表明,基于Hamaker假设的黏附模型与Bradley黏附模型完全一致,证实了原子势参数与平面势参数间关系式的正确性,为采用连续介质力学方法研究微观离散世界的黏附问题提供了理论基础. 相似文献