南水北调东线工程调水期洪泽湖水质变化规律分析

为了解南水北调东线工程调水期间洪泽湖水质变化,基于2013—2020年洪泽湖调水期水质监测数据,采用Daniel趋势检验分析水质年变化趋势,通过空间插值得出各湖区水质分布规律,并进一步用主成分分析法分析水质主要污染类型。结果表明：2013—2020年洪泽湖调水期水质在合格至轻度污染之间,TP和TN为主要超标因子;时间上水质有变好趋势,空间上过水区水质最差,但有转好趋势,而成子湖区和溧河洼区有所恶化;污染类型以富营养化污染为主,氮磷营养盐影响较大;水质污染以入湖河流输入和建设用地增加人类活动的污染为主要来源,还伴有偶发污染事故;时间上洪泽湖对东线输水的综合水质有改善趋势,建议进一步加强相关污染防治工作,保护洪泽湖水环境,保障南水北调东线工程输水水质安全。     

Innovators and contrapreneurs: Crucial alliances that connect and separate organizational change processes

This paper focuses on the coupling among alliances, relationships, management, and activities, when major strategic changes are carried out in an old organization. The paper also points out hownew alliances andchanged relationships seem to be developing in a Norwegian company. As a conclusion, we point out six elements which, according to our research, have to be present to minimize the implementation of reversible processes in organizations where organizational change processes have been implemented so that continued change can go on in the company.     

Microstructure and optical properties of Ag5In5Te47Sb33 phase change thin films with high reflection in thermal annealing process

The microstructure and optical properties of Ag-5In-5Te 47Sb 33 phase change films with high reflection in the thermal annealing process were systematically reported. The as_deposited film is amorphous and its crystalline temperature is 160℃. The annealed films are crystalline. The crystalline phases are AgInTe-2, AgSbTe-2 and Sb when annealed at low temperature. When annealed at 220℃, the AgInTe-2 phase disappears and the amount of AgSbTe-2 is the largest. The research of electronic transmission microscopy shows that the morphology of AgSbTe 2 is sphere and that of Sb is bludgeon. The reflection of the annealed films is higher and reaches its peak value at 220℃.     

A continuous 200-ka palaeoclimatic record from stalagmite in Tangshan Cave, Nanjing

An oxygen isotope temperature record from 381 to 166 kaB. P. (²³⁰Th/²³⁴U dating and tuned ages) has been obtained by combining data on the isotopic composition of calcites with that of fluid inclusions trapped in a stalagmite from a limestone cave in which a fossil cranium deposited. Several laminae in microsequence of the stalagmite represent climatic events or shifts. The Nanjing man fossil was older than 381 kaB. P.     

秦安大地湾高分辨率全新世植被演变与气候变迁初步研究

主要根据孢粉分析结果,并结合磁化率,碳酸钙恢复了陇西黄土高原地区全新世期间植被气候的变化过程。结果表明全新世气候存在３个大的阶段,全新世早期气候以寒冷为主要特点,中全新世气候温暖湿润,晚全新世气候以干旱为主要特征。     

长江中下游地区汛期降水量异常与旱涝趋势

在（25°～35°N．100°～125°E）范围内利用48个测站1950～1991年降水资料和1470～1974年旱涝等级资料对长江中下游地区汛期（6～8）月降水异常和旱涝趋势进行了统计分析和推断,得出：长江中下游地区汛期降水量一般在450～600mm．相对变率为0.25～0．40．历年降水量最大值出现在武汉地区、浙皖赣交界地区以及苏北兴化─东台地区、最小值出现在安徽合肥─霍山地区,20a、30a、50a─遇的异常多降水量的最大值出现在武汉、衢县及兴化─东台地区,异常少降水量的最小值出现在大别山及长江三角洲地区．大范围旱涝连续出现和交替出现的可能性很小,在长江中游地区汛期旱涝具有50a和20a的周期变化,长江下游地区具有100a和20a的周期变化,本世纪80年代以来长江下游地区降水量波动增加．预计下世纪10～30年代将是洪涝多发期．10～20年代长江中游地区将是干旱多发期．     

Predicting returns and volatility with macroeconomic variables: evidence from tests of encompassing

Tests of forecast encompassing are used to evaluate one‐step‐ahead forecasts of S&P Composite index returns and volatility. It is found that forecasts over the 1990s made from models that include macroeconomic variables tend to be encompassed by those made from a benchmark model which does not include macroeconomic variables. However, macroeconomic variables are found to add significant information to forecasts of returns and volatility over the 1970s. Often in empirical research on forecasting stock index returns and volatility, in‐sample information criteria are used to rank potential forecasting models. Here, none of the forecasting models for the 1970s that include macroeconomic variables are, on the basis of information criteria, preferred to the relevant benchmark specification. Thus, had investors used information criteria to choose between the models used for forecasting over the 1970s considered in this paper, the predictability that tests of encompassing reveal would not have been exploited. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浅谈开放教育与图书馆服务

广播电视大学图书馆是电大的文献信息中心,随着开放教育这一新的教育模式的出现,图书馆也应在整体上做出相应的改革,树立“以人为主体”的服务理念。未来图书馆事业发展的核心是信息增值服务和人本服务。     

中国小冰期区域气候演化研究

在我国不同地区通过不同代用资料如冰芯、树轮、孢粉、湖泊沉积物、历史文献记录等恢复的小冰期气候的基础上, 分析总结了小冰期我国气候演化的区域分异特征,并探讨其原因机制,力图为未来气候变化提供参考。