商业市场信息随机预测模型的研究和计算机实现

本文针对商业市场信息的特点，选用了随机预测模型ＡＲＩＭＡ的基本模式；深入研究ＡＲＩＭＡ模型建立的全过程，开拓性地采用了功率谱估计方法，确定市场预测模型的阶数ｐ和ｑ；利用多种高级语言的混编程序技术，在微机上完全实现了商业市场信息预测系统；运行结果表明；该模型及其实现系统是可行的。     

Decision Support Systems (DSS) development using a model of user inquiry types: Methodological proposals and a case study

A study of the DSS implementation area reveals an increased emphasis on methodologies for DSS development. As the DSS field matures, a larger number of methodological options are becoming available to the DSS developer. Existing methodologies have adopted various methods for performing the important task of DSS requirements analysis and specification. In envisaging a hierarchy of requirements analysis methods, a method for improved requirements analysis is proposed to remedy observed deficiencies within it. This method is based on a view of generic types of inquiries or solicitations made by the DSS user during decision-making. This formalism constitutes the basis of a proposed DSS development methodology that offers several benefits to DSS development. The intended benefits include a sharper and more focused requirements analysis to improve the DSS development process. This paper describes the model and methodology, alongside details of a real-world example of their use in developing a Marketing Decision Support System (MKDSS) for the support of marketing decision-making.     

非线性连续时间系统L1控制的非线性反馈

用集值分析方法研究了仿射非线性连续时间系统具λ-指数收敛率和ρ-性能的L1-控制问题.首先,引入连续时间系统的受控λ-收缩集概念,并建立了与其Euler逼近的离散系统的受控收缩集之间的关系.然后,结合此概念,得到了这个问题有静态连续非线性解的充分条件.这推广了在稳定性意义下文献中的结果.     

电离层薄层倾斜带来的电离层附加时延偏差分析

在考虑电离层薄层倾斜的基础上,数值模拟、分析了电离层倾斜带来的电离层附加时延相对不考虑电离层倾斜的偏差,从而说明了在电离层倾斜地区消除电离层倾斜的必要性     

“解方程器”软件包(EQNS-SOLVER)

作者提出了对于任意多项式方程组的一种带有普遍性的求解方法。多项式方程组可能没有解,或者有无穷多个解,或者有有限个解,解是实数也可以是复数。在有限个解的情况下,所创建的方法能够求出所有的解。作者完成了一个软料包,称为《解方程器》,曾在微型计算机上用FORTRAN语言完成计算过程。本文是《解方程器》软料包的说明,内容包括基本原理、方法、程序结构、应用举例以及使用的步骤。     

Unit roots versus other types of time heterogeneity,parameter time dependence and superexogeneity

This paper stresses the restrictive nature of the standard unit root/cointegration assumptions and examines a more general type of time heterogeneity, which might characterize a number of economic variables, and which results in parameter time dependence and misleading statistical inference. We show that in such cases ‘operational’ models cannot be obtained, and the estimation of time‐varying parameter models becomes necessary. For instance, economic processes subject to endemic change can only be adequately modelled in a state space form. This is a very important point, because unstable models will break down when used for forecasting purposes. We also discuss a new test for the null of cointegration developed by Quintos and Phillips (1993), which is based on parameter constancy in cointegrating regressions. Finally, we point out that, if it is possible to condition on a subset of superexogenous variables, parameter instability can be handled by estimating a restricted system. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Survey of the Use of the Discrete-event Simulation in Manufacturing Industry

In this work, a survey of companies has been produc ed from a questionnaire and in-depth inter-views. The aimof the paper is to give a current view of the use of DES (Discrete- Event Simulation) in the indust ry. The companies have been selected in a wide range in e.g. size, capital turno ver and employees. The survey was restricted to Sweden, although the results may be applicable to other countries with similar industrial structure. Some of the companies investigated are also multinational with branc...     

T＝∞跟踪问题的一种解法

跟踪问题是线性系统二次型性能指标最优控制讨论的一个重要应用问题。当终端时间T为有限时 ,很多文献都给出了适当的解法 ,但T =∞时的求解还有很多问题值得探讨。本文给出了终端T =∞时预期输出满足一定条件的跟踪问题的一种解法。此种情况可转化为输出调节器问题 ,并给出了具体的求解方法和例子。     

遗传算法在网上谈判支持系统中的应用研究

从 8 0年代后期首次出现谈判支持系统至今 ,国外许多学者从不的角度对其进行了大量的研究 ,而国内在这方面的研究尚处于起步阶段 .网上谈判支持系统不仅要为谈判人提供方便的交流媒介 ,更要为其提供合理的协调解 ,以减少冲突 ,提高谈判的成功率 .目前 ,对于网上谈判支持系统中谈判解支持的研究 ,尚未取得重大突破 ,采用的方法仅仅局限于效用函数法、对策分析法以及国内近期研究出的基于兴趣点的选择方案搜索算法等等 .但是 ,这些方法在实际应用中很难方便、及时地为谈判人提供有效的建议解或方案支持 ,无法满足网上谈判的实际需求 .本文针对遗传算法的全局收敛性快速寻优、可并行性寻优以及模拟自然进化过程解决最优问题等特点 ,尝试着将遗传算法用于网上谈判支持系统中 ,为谈判人提供对于双方而言满意的协调解 ,对此 ,文中进行了一系列的理论分析及实践检验 ,证明了这种方法的可行性及特殊的优越性 .