一种利用遗传算法自动生成模糊规则方法

将遗传算法用于模糊系统的建模中,在分析经典遗传算法基本原理的基础上,提出了算法的改进措施;重点阐述了模糊系统中遗传与变异的作用,从而提出了一种具有很强进化能力的模糊规则生成算法,为智能系统获得模糊规则提供了一种有效方法。模拟结果验证了该算法的正确性。     

小议“有高森林火险气象等级”

“有高森林火险气象等级”的表述有欠严密、简练,也不符合天气预报节目口语化的表述风格,文章分析了其中的原因并提出了合理可行的建议。     

基于MATLAB的煤与瓦斯突出BP网络预测方法

影响煤与瓦斯突出的各种要素与突出现象之间的关系复杂,且具有明显的非线性特点.BP人工神经网络模型可以很好地逼近这种非线性函数关系.基于煤与瓦斯突出特征指标的分析,建立了合理的单隐层结构的BP预测模型,并利用MATLAB神经网络工具箱实现了模型的训练与预测,应用结果表明,这种突出预测方法具有很高的计算效率和预测精度.     

报汛站水位远程自动测报系统的设计

介绍一种利用单片机系统设计的报汛站水位远程自动测报系统。该系统采用压力传感器测量水位,通过无线方式向中心站发送水位信息,并自动形成各种报表,以便对水位数据进行统计分析,对实时水位监测起着很重要的作用。     

Meteorotropy and medical-meteorological forecasts

The meteorotropic reaction of the human organism is a function of different factors, such as the type and intensity of the effects of the physical environment as well as individual conditions like adaptive capacity and state of health. Many medical-meteorological studies show causal correlations between conditions in the lower atmosphere and reactions of the human organism, but also combined or synergistic effects of different weather situations, which can only be proved stochastically. These effects are described and the methodology of the investigations, as well as the results, critically discussed. Furthermore, application of the results in the areas of medical-meteorological consultation, with the goal of improving living conditions, is considered.     

Economic and statistical measures of forecast accuracy

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between the decision and the forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued to be used with meteorological forecasts, it is hardly mentioned in standard academic texts on economic forecasting. Some of the main issues involved are illustrated in the context of a two‐state, two‐action decision problem as well as in a more general setting. Relationships between statistical and economic methods of forecast evaluation are discussed and links between the Kuipers score used as a measure of forecast accuracy in the meteorology literature and the market timing tests used in finance are established. An empirical application to the problem of stock market predictability is also provided, and the conditions under which such predictability could be explained in the presence of transaction costs are discussed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青藏高原季风的气候振荡和预测试验

利用奇异谱分析等方法,分析了1961-1995年青藏高原季风的气候振荡。结果表明：自60年代以来,季风的总趋势是加强的,即夏季青藏高原暖低压加强;冬季青藏高原冷高压减弱,这可能是对全球变暖的响应。季风的主要周期是3-4年,其次是6年,高原季风在1985年存在着由偏弱向偏强的突变。利用SSA-MEM方法可以预报春季高原季风指数未来2年的趋势和季高原季风指数未来9个季的趋势。     

随机局部弹性及其在利润预测中的应用

利用文[1]提出的随机局部弹性理论,针对企业利润预测问题,研究了产品的产销售量和销售价格同时为连续型随机变量时,利润对销售量和销售价格的随机局部弹性．给出了利润弹性的分布函数和概率密度函数,讨论了销售量和销售价格的变化对利润弹性的影响．进一步讨论了利润弹性的经济意义．通过实例研究了当销售量和销售价格服从某种分布时,利润弹性的变化范围及在该变化范围的可信度．     

我国居民消费水平的中长期预测

根据全国1992－1999年居民消费水平的统计数据，采用灰色系统理论的数据预测及缓冲算子公理，结合定性分析，建立了GM（1，1）模型，预测了我国2000－2005年居民消费水平的发展前景。     

黄土滑坡空间预报的一种新理论

在对黄土力学性质大量测试的基础上,结合５０多个典型黄土滑坡灾害实例的研究反演,提出了考虑滑出条件的一种新的黄土滑坡空间预报理论。