Forecasting in the presence of level shifts

This article addresses the problem of forecasting time series that are subject to level shifts. Processes with level shifts possess a nonlinear dependence structure. Using the stochastic permanent breaks (STOPBREAK) model, I model this nonlinearity in a direct and flexible way that avoids imposing a discrete regime structure. I apply this model to the rate of price inflation in the United States, which I show is subject to level shifts. These shifts significantly affect the accuracy of out‐of‐sample forecasts, causing models that assume covariance stationarity to be substantially biased. Models that do not assume covariance stationarity, such as the random walk, are unbiased but lack precision in periods without shifts. I show that the STOPBREAK model outperforms several alternative models in an out‐of‐sample inflation forecasting experiment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种基于小波变换的语音增强新方法

根据随机噪声的小波变换系数在不同尺度上的传递特性和噪声信号奇异性与小波模极大值的关系，提出用一个随尺度变化的软阈值来抑制带噪语音信号在不同尺度上的噪声小波系数的语音增强方法．实验结果表明：该方法既能减小语音畸变，又能有效地去除噪声，具有较好的语音增强效果．     

蜂窝网络中基于遗传算法的信道分配

信道分配问题属于组合优化中的NP完备问题 ,为了更有效的利用频率资源 ,在遗传算法的基础上提出了一种新的信道分配方法·在信道分配中主要考虑三种限制 :同频限制、邻频限制和同位置限制·目标是得到一个用最少的信道数 ,满足话务需求和电磁兼容限制的信道分配方案·采用了最小间隔编码方案 ,利用固定遗传算子 (交叉和变异 ) ,在整个迭代过程中始终满足话务需求的要求·提出了几种遗传算子并进行了验证 ,比较结果表明选择性变异技术能得到很好的结果·对几个著名的benchmark问题进行仿真 ,结果表明 ,它对解决信道分配问题是一个非常有效的方法     

二极管端面泵浦Nd:YAG 946 nm激光器理论分析及其相关量的数值模型

利用激光谐振腔处于稳态时的速率方程导出了准三能级Nd：YAG　946nm起振时透射损耗与最佳激光晶体长度的关系，我们直观地给出了其计算机模拟，在与1064nm透射损耗相比较的基础上，形象给出了一系列情况下的最低镀膜要求(对这个问题系统、细致的讨论在以往的文献中还没有见过)，并且计算机模拟了阈值、输出功率和它们各自相关量的关系，为设计室温下高效运转的946nm激光器提供了必要的理论数值参照．这种分析方法对此类低增益，准三能级或三能级系统有借鉴意义。     

XT-14型电视信号发生器的改进

在XT-14型彩色电视信号发生器的电路基础上,增加了U分量逐行倒相、色度逐行倒相、非逐行倒相和隔行色度四种编码方式,给出对应电路和调整方法。改进后电视信号发生器效果良好,具有更为广泛的使用范围。     

Shift visual cryptography scheme of two secret images

A new visual cryptography scheme of two secret images, which is named the shift visual cryptography of two secret images, is given. The compound function family of a general construction model is also introduced. The uniqueness and validity of this model are proved, and the minimum rows and columns for realizing the scheme are obtained. Compared with visual cryptography of one secret image, the shift visual cryptography scheme can share two secret images with the same size of pixels expansion without losing the contrast. It has randomness and various forms, and furthermore, we can also visually recover two secret images even if the two shares are different in form and color.     

Stress corrosion cracking and its anisotropy of a PZT ferroelectric ceramics

It is known that some types of ceramics, like Al2O3 and ZrO2, undergo stress corrosion cracking (SCC) or static fatigue fracture under static loading, ever in a rela-tively mild environment, such as moist atmosphere or water at room temperature, which leads to a time-dependent fracture[1—4]. For a transmission electron microscopy specimen of YBa2Cu3O7-x ceramics superconductor, SCC induced by residual stress can occur in an atmosphere with low moisture content[5]. For a lead zirconate ti…     

铁素体球墨铸铁损伤力学特性

根据损伤力学的基本原理,利用测量电阻的方法,研究了拉伸受力状态下,铁素体球墨铸铁的损伤力学特性。得出了损伤变量随应力和应变而变化的演变规律。认为球墨铸铁存在损伤阈值,其大小随球化率提高而呈直线增大,但损伤阈值皆小于屈服强度;临界损伤变量与球化率的关系不大,在本试验条件下,约为0.060～0.068。研究结果表明,当应力大于一定程度时,损伤发生,且随应力增加而逐渐增大。     

改良遗传算法在图像多阈值分割中的应用

最大熵原则是图像阈值分割的一个重要方法、但是用此方法进行多阈值分割时，存在着计算开销巨大的问题．笔者在M．Srinivas的自适应遗传算法基础上提出一种改良的遗传算法，用于基于模糊最大熵图像多阈值分割，克服了此分割方法计算量大的问题．通过实验，比较了改良遗传算法和M．Srinivas自适应遗传算法及模拟退火算法，显示了改良遗传算法的有效性．     

一类带有因病死亡率的SIS流行病积分模型的分析

本研究一类带有因病死亡率的SIS流行病积分模型，得到地方病平衡点存在的阈值，当该阈值小于1时，无病平衡点是全局吸引的，当该阈值大于1时，给出了地方病平衡点局部稳定的充分条件。