多阶段任务系统任务持续能力仿真模型研究

多阶段任务系统(PMS)是一种典型的复杂系统,它包括多个在时间上连续且无相互重叠的阶段任务,执行作战与使用任务的武器装备多数属于这种复杂系统。分析了PMS及任务可靠度、可信度和任务效能等任务持续能力评价参数。结合实际装备系统大都属于可用马尔可夫过程进行描述的可修复系统的特点,为简化模型复杂程度提出了一些合理的假设条件。在此基础上,结合多阶段任务系统自身特点,通过分析多阶段任务系统任务持续能力建模仿真步骤,多阶段任务系统任务效能仿真方法,建立了基于Petri网的多阶段任务系统任务效能多层仿真模型。最后结合常见的"靶场打靶"任务进行了实例验证,并对仿真结果进行了分析。     

A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?

Predicting the future evolution of GDP growth and inflation is a central concern in economics. Forecasts are typically produced either from economic theory‐based models or from simple linear time series models. While a time series model can provide a reasonable benchmark to evaluate the value added of economic theory relative to the pure explanatory power of the past behavior of the variable, recent developments in time series analysis suggest that more sophisticated time series models could provide more serious benchmarks for economic models. In this paper we evaluate whether these complicated time series models can outperform standard linear models for forecasting GDP growth and inflation. We consider a large variety of models and evaluation criteria, using a bootstrap algorithm to evaluate the statistical significance of our results. Our main conclusion is that in general linear time series models can hardly be beaten if they are carefully specified. However, we also identify some important cases where the adoption of a more complicated benchmark can alter the conclusions of economic analyses about the driving forces of GDP growth and inflation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The neurotrophic receptor TrkB: a drug target in anti-cancer therapy?

Increasing evidence implies altered signaling through the neurotrophic receptor tyrosine kinase TrkB in promoting tumor formation and metastasis. TrkB, sometimes in conjunction with its primary ligand BDNF, is often overexpressed in a variety of human cancers, ranging from neuroblastomas to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas, in which it may allow tumor expansion and contribute to resistance to anti-tumor agents. In vitro, TrkB acts as a potent suppressor of anoikis (detachment-induced apoptosis), which is associated with the acquisition of an aggressive tumorigenic and metastatic phenotype in vivo. In view of its predicted contribution to tumorigenicity and metastasis in humans, TrkB corresponds to a potential drug target, and preclinical models have already been established. The encouraging results of pharmacological Trk inhibitors in tumor xenograft models suggest that TrkB inhibition may represent a promising novel anti-tumor therapeutic strategy. This hypothesis is currently being evaluated in clinical trials. Here, we will discuss the latest developments on TrkB in these contexts as well as highlight some critical questions that remain to be addressed for evaluating TrkB as a therapeutic target in cancer. Received 12 October 2005; received after revision 19 December 2005; accepted 11 January 2006     

DBD大气压等离子体的数值模拟研究进展

介绍了大气压介质阻挡放电(DBD)的一般结构及其特性,并说明对其数值模拟的必要和意义。同时在介绍了一些常用的模拟模型基础上,重点对流体模型和粒子云—蒙太卡洛模拟加以描述。最后结合模拟研究的历史和当前进展,展望了DBD大气压等离子体的数值模拟研究的难点和前景。     

超纯铁素体不锈钢热变形过程中的析出行为

利用热力模拟实验机及试验轧机研究了添加Ti,V的超纯中铬铁素体不锈钢热变形过程中的析出行为变化特点,并采用热动力学计算及透射电子显微镜观察来表征析出相特征.结果表明:热变形过程中形成的析出相主要为TiC,这与热动力学分析一致.这些析出相的特征与变形温度密切相关,随着变形温度的降低,析出相TiC尺寸更加细小且分布更加弥散.这主要是由于变形温度降低时扩散速率相对较低,不利于析出相长大,而晶体缺陷增加,形变诱导析出的有效形核位置增加.这一热变形过程中的析出行为变化规律在中试试验条件下得到了验证.     

阀控非对称缸液压系统建模研究

考虑了阀控非对称缸液压系统中阀与缸之间采用软管连接的情况,构建了系统方程,推导了活塞杆在两个方向,活塞杆伸出和活塞杆缩回时的两个传递函数,分析了两个方向的增益与固有频率,采用了SimHydraulics实物仿真,仿真结果验证了对传递函数的理论分析.     

球体-平面黏附模型分析

为确定Bradley黏附模型与Hamaker假设黏附模型之间的关系和差异,运用Hamaker假设和原子间的Lennard-Jones势能推导出了两平面间的相互作用力,通过与平面间的Lennard-Jones势能进行对比分析,得到了原子势参数与平面势参数间的关系式.根据此关系式将Bradley模型转化为由Hamaker常数描述的黏附模型,并根据Hamaker常数的定义式将Bradley模型最终转化为由原子势参数和Hamaker常数描述的黏附模型.理论分析与仿真结果表明,基于Hamaker假设的黏附模型与Bradley黏附模型完全一致,证实了原子势参数与平面势参数间关系式的正确性,为采用连续介质力学方法研究微观离散世界的黏附问题提供了理论基础.     

基于时间序列的灰色预测技术在估产模型中的应用

在建立估产模型过程中，引进基于时间序列的灰色预测技术，通过对样本点建立基于时间序列的灰色预测模型和常规的多元线性回归气象模型的分析比较，试图找到一种计算简单，数据要求少而精度较高，时效性较好的建模方法，为时间序列预测在农作物估产方面的应用作出一点探索。     

闪速燃烧合成的Fe-Si3N4中FexSi粒子的形成机理

采用SEM、EDS等手段研究了闪速燃烧合成的氮化硅铁及其原料FeSi75的组成、结构,并结合闪速燃烧合成工艺和热力学分析,揭示氮化硅铁中FexSi粒子的形成机理.结果表明:在以74μm的FeSi75氮化制备氮化硅铁过程中,金属硅和ξ(FeSi2.3)相中部分硅氮化为氮化硅,而氮化硅铁中FexSi粒子则来源于ξ相的氮化;当ξ相被氮化到其中的[Si]摩尔分数降低近25%时,[Si]的活度aSi趋于0,氮化趋于平衡,ξ相中不能被继续氮化的部分即为FexSi粒子,其Fe∶Si原子比例大约为3∶1;FexSi粒子的大小、均匀分布状况与ξ相颗粒粒径大小及分布状况有关.     

民办本科高校科学发展的新途径研究

在问卷调查的基础上,以郑州科技学院为典型个案进行详细的论证分析,提出民办高校应该以现有的基础为突破口,发挥其特长,走职业教育之路.