剩余型直觉模糊推理的三I方法

要本文研究了由左连续三角模所生成的直觉三角模的性质,给出了与直觉三角模相伴随的剩余型直觉蕴涵算子的等价刻画,揭示了直觉模糊蕴涵算子和模糊蕴涵算子的关系．结合模糊推理的三I方法,针对剩余型直觉蕴涵算子,提出直觉模糊推理IFMP问题的三I方法和分解方法,给出两种方法的求解公式,并讨论了它们的还原性,证明了三I方法和分解方法具有良好的还原性．最后提出了IFMP问题的a-三I方法．并给出相应的算例分析．     

新的不确定推理真值传播计算方法

针对现有不确定推理真值传播方法存在的缺陷 ,提出一种新型不确定推理真值传播的计算方法 .该方法简单、直观 ,与已有方法相比更具有应用价值.     

基于正则蕴涵算子的三I算法

给出了基于常见正则蕴涵算子的三I算法的计算公式,并考虑算法的还原性.     

科学普适性信念批判的SLK进路研究及其意义

西方学术传统所坚持的科学普适性信念,多年来受到来自数学哲学、物理哲学等多条进路的批判。布鲁尔的SSK思想也是对这种信念的一种批判,作为其SSK组成部分的SLK思想,是这种批判的集中体现。他以逻辑学这门硬科学为例,从逻辑基础和逻辑规则社会性两个方面,提供了对于科学普适性信念更为深入的批判路径,从而导致了科学形象的极大变革。     

Temporal and spatial distribution of tropospheric CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> over China based on satellite observations

Mid-troposphere CO₂ data retrieved by the AIRS (atmospheric infrared sounder) were validated with five ground-based stations and aircraft measurements in the Northern Hemisphere. AIRS CO₂ products show good agreement with ground and aircraft observations. The data had a monthly average accuracy better than 3 ppmv. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of mid-troposphere CO₂ from January 2003 to December 2008 was analyzed based on this satellite product. The average concentration of atmospheric CO₂ was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The yearly average results show a gradual increase from 2003 to 2008. In China, the annual growth rate was about 2 ppmv/a, similar to the United States, Europe, Australia and India, but was slightly lower than Canada and Russia. Mid-troposphere CO₂ concentrations were higher over northern China than over southern areas, due to differences in natural conditions and industrial layout. There were four centers of high CO₂ concentration between 35° and 45°N over China, with low concentrations over Yunnan Province. There was a significant seasonal CO₂ variation with peak concentration in spring and the lowest concentration in autumn.     

一种基于网络分析的语义冗余发现方法

以农业AGROVOC本体为例,结合语义万维网推理机制定性分析冗余信息产生原因,利用复杂网络分析方法量化推理过程中产生的冗余,进而确定本体中的核心概念,解决推理冗余问题。实验表明,复杂网络分析方法可从定量角度找出核心节点及导致推理产生冗余的边,并揭示了语义冗余引起的推理效率降低问题。为优化本体设计、提高推理效率提供了一种新的可行方法。     

道德语言、规定语言和祈使句——黑尔对道德语言的分析

黑尔认为，伦理学的研究就是对道德语言的逻辑研究。道德语言是一种规定语言，其功能是指导我们的行为，所以道德语言的模糊歧义不仅会造成理论上的困惑，更会引起实践上的混乱。因此，道德语言的明晰十分重要。黑尔对道德语言的分析主要立足于对描述语言和规定语言的比较以及对道德判断和祈使句的比较。按照人们一般的思维模式，文章将从道德概念的分析开始，进而到道德判断，再到道德推理，介评黑尔对道德语言的分析。     

Representing with imaginary models: Formats matter

Models such as the simple pendulum, isolated populations, and perfectly rational agents, play a central role in theorising. It is now widely acknowledged that a study of scientific representation should focus on the role of such imaginary entities in scientists’ reasoning. However, the question is most of the time cast as follows: How can fictional or abstract entities represent the phenomena? In this paper, I show that this question is not well posed. First, I clarify the notion of representation, and I emphasise the importance of what I call the “format” of a representation for the inferences agents can draw from it. Then, I show that the very same model can be presented under different formats, which do not enable scientists to perform the same inferences. Assuming that the main function of a representation is to allow one to draw predictions and explanations of the phenomena by reasoning with it, I conclude that imaginary models in abstracto are not used as representations: scientists always reason with formatted representations. Therefore, the problem of scientific representation does not lie in the relationship of imaginary entities with real systems. One should rather focus on the variety of the formats that are used in scientific practice.     

基于改进主观Bayes方法的不确定推理模型设计

通过分析主观Bayes方法与专家系统中不确定推理的研究现状,提出了一种加入可信度的主观Bayes方法模型.该方法消除了可信度CF和规则成立的充分性量度LS之间可能存在的不一致性,减少了后验概率对先验概率的依赖,并在森林病虫害专家系统中进行应用实现.     

论表征形式与教育背景对于概率推断准确性的影响

在本研究中,实验人员就上述两种因素对于一例医疗诊断问题的影响进行了调查,997名不同专业背景的本科学生对于妇女是否患有乳腺癌进行了概率推断.研究所用的诊断题目采用了一种概率格式(probabilistic format)和三种频率格式(frequency format).调查结果显示,具有理科背景的学生综合表现优于文科背景的学生;相比于概率格式,两种频率格式(树状图和表格频率)改善了所有学生的表现,而标准频率格式只提高了理科学生的表现.此次研究为今后概率推断的教育工作提供了更广阔的思路.