分时电价下电锅炉经济运行的BP网络负荷预测

随着我国电力需求侧管理(DSM)的日益深入和分时电价制度的日益完善,蓄热式电锅炉的应用将越来越广泛.利用人工神经网络的BP预测模型对蓄热式电锅炉供热系统进行了热负荷预测.并以某医院1 200kW蓄热式电锅炉优化运行的研究为例,得到了某日预测的逐时热负荷与实际热负荷的对比关系,预测值与实际值吻合良好.     

组合灰色预测模型在电力负荷预测中的应用

基于灰色预测理论,研究了基本灰色预测模型及其几种传统改进模型的原理和它们在电力负荷预测中存在的局限性,提出了电力系统中长期负荷预测的实用新方法--组合灰色预测模型.以实际算例为基础,应用基本灰色预测模型和传统改进模型以及组合灰色预测模型分别对电力负荷进行了预测,并进行了分析比较.结果表明,用灰色理论预测电力负荷,理论可靠、方法简单.对于中长期电力负荷预测这样复杂的问题,组合灰色预测模型具有预测精度高、简捷实用等优点,该方法可作为中长期电力负荷预测的工具之一.     

基于小波理论对负荷预测中不良数据的处理

历史负荷数据的真实可靠是电力系统负荷预测的基础,而在电力系统运行中产生的冲击负荷,以及由SCADA系统采集数据时产生的随机干扰数据都会导致历史数据中含有不良数据.提出采用小波分析与局部奇异性理论通过对模极大值的调整和细节信号的软阈值处理可以达到检测并消除不良数据的目的,从而为负荷预测提供能反应其变化规律的真实历史信息.通过仿真算例验证了所提方法的有效性.     

基于递推合成BP网络的多变量时间序列预测模型

提供了一种基于递推合成BP网络的非线性时间序列预测方法,并针对具体实例建立多变量时间序列模型.将其预测结果与灰色预测模型及常规BP网络的多变量时间序列预测模型的结果进行比较,其仿真实验结果表明该网络具有很强的学习特性和泛化能力,适合进行非线性时间序列建模及预测.     

敏感点预报地震的一个震例及有关几个问题的讨论

本文介绍了1982年6月16日甘孜6级地震预报成功的有关情况,并对敏感点前兆信息提取,地质、地理条件,综合预报及其机理进行了讨论。对地震预报和理论研究,提供了一个新的思路。     

Forecasting the price evolution of new electronic products

This study tests the hypothesis that prices in new markets change in a pattern similar to and related to the product life cycle. Three stages of price decline have been identified in electronic product markets and can be associated with the introduction, take-off and growth, and maturity stages of the product life cycle. The study integrates the methodologies of the product life cycle concept and experience curve theory and analyses price and product behaviour for radios, monochrome (black and white) televisions, colour televisions and video cassette recorders. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis and suggests, as a general rule, that a better understanding of a product's life cycle and the factors that affect it can aid in the development of price forecasts. In fact, the marriage of experience curve theory and the product life cycle concept provides a methodology for quantifying the impact of influential factors and gives the analyst the ability to bound the uncertainty around price forecasts, ultimately leading to better strategic decisions, today, for tomorrow's markets.     

我国个人所得税制存在的问题及优化

个人所得税是世界性重要税种，在促进经济发展、维护社会公平方面具有不可替代的作用。我国现行的个人所得税制因存在种种不足，而未能发挥其特有的作用。本文就课税模式等五个层面存在的主要问题进行剖析，进而提出了优化个人所得税制的建议。     

Long-term forecasting with innovation diffusion models: The impact of replacement purchases

The model presented in this paper integrates two distinct components of the demand for durable goods: adoptions and replacements. The adoption of a new product is modeled as an innovation diffusion process, using price and population as exogenous variables. Adopters are expected to eventually replace their old units of the product, with a probability which depends on the age of the owned unit, and other random factors such as overload, style-changes etc. It is shovn that the integration of adoption and replacement demand components in our model yields quality sales forecasts, not only under conditions where detailed data on replacement sales is available, but also when the forecaster's access is limited to total sales data and educated guesses on certain elements of the replacement process.     

DMC在pH调节系统中的应用

本文提出一种动态矩阵控制的改进算法，这种算法应用于具有纯滞后特性的系统中，可以明显地减少控制量的增量。本文中还给出详细的理论推导和在ｐＨ调节系统中的使用结果。     

New product forecasting

Forecasting new-product performance has been called ‘one of the most difficult and critical management tasks’. It has attracted considerable attention because of the magnitude of the resources devoted to product development and because of the sizeable risks involved in making the go–no-go decisions. In comparison with forecasting sales for established products, there is no sales history, or more generally, the company has no product specific experience related to consumer acceptance, trade support and competitive reactions. This article first presents a review of new product forecasting techniques with an emphasis given to the more recent developments in forecasting models. Then, forecasting procedures are assessed by discussing their benefits and their costs. The third part of the article discusses trends in new product forecasting.