加速寿命数据的贝叶斯建模与分析

在加速寿命试验的可靠性设计中, 随机化设计的限制以及删失数据不可避免地导致低分位数估计出现较大的偏差。针对上述的问题, 结合贝叶斯抽样技术以及非线性混合模型(nonlinear mixed model, NLMM)提出了一种可靠性改进的分析方法。首先, 需要检验所收集的数据是否服从威布尔分布以及验证形状参数是否是恒定常数。其次, 考虑随机效应对尺度参数和形状参数的影响, 运用NLMM构建了尺度参数和形状参数与试验因子之间的函数关系。然后, 利用贝叶斯方法估计低分位数的可靠性寿命。最后, 实际案例研究表明, 在考虑删失问题和未完全随机设计的影响时, 所提方法能够获得更为稳健和可靠的估计结果。     

塞曼效应实验的一个应用

由塞曼效应实验结果去确定原子的总角动量量子数J值和朗德因子g值,近而去确定原子总轨道角动量量子数L和总自旋量子数S的数值.此方法的运用,对知识巩固和加深的同时,训练学生由实验结果得到理论结论,实现物理学理论指导实践、实践反作用理论的宗旨.这无疑对增强学生的创新能力有巨大的帮助.     

Correcting the January optimism effect

Each month, various professional forecasters give forecasts for next year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and unemployment. January is a special month, when the forecast horizon moves to the following calendar year. Instead of deleting the January data when analyzing forecast updates, I propose a periodic version of a test regression for weak-form efficiency. An application of this periodic model for many forecasts across a range of countries shows that in January GDP forecast updates are positive, whereas the forecast updates for unemployment are negative. I document that this January optimism about the new calendar year is detrimental to forecast accuracy. To empirically analyze Okun's law, I also propose a periodic test regression, and its application provides more support for this law.     

参照价格效应下的绿色供应链协调机制

在考虑消费者的参照价格效应下,研究绿色供应链的协调机制问题。构建了基于参照价格的分散决策模型、集中决策模型、成本分担契约和收益共享契约,给出了各优化模型下的最优均衡策略,并对其进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：成本分担契约和收益共享契约可以提高供应链系统的利润,却不能达到一体化下的最优利润;收益共享契约优于成本分担契约;随着参照价格效应的增加,产品绿色度、批发价格和零售价格减小,制造商和零售商的利润增加;考虑消费者的参照价格效应可以提高制造商和零售商的利润。     

中国经济增长与杠杆率的非线性关系研究--基于制造业面板数据门限回归分析

传统理论基于有效市场理论(EMH)主要从公司财务视角研究杠杆率问题,忽略了生产环节的决定机制.本文从决定生产效率的全要素生产率视角对杠杆率的决定机制重新认识.并采用制造业29个行业1995-2016年的面板数据,以杠杆率为门限变量构建动态面板门限模型,主要研究结论为:1)经济增长-杠杆率的门限值位于名义杠杆率114,在门限值左侧,杠杆率增加促进经济增长,在门限值右侧,杠杆率增加"拖累"经济增长,杠杆率对经济增长整体表现"倒U"型关系;2)经济增长-杠杆率的泡沫杠杆率门限值位于泡沫杠杆率65,当名义杠杆率包含的泡沫杠杆率低于65时,杠杆率增加对经济具有显著的促进效应,当包含的杠杆率大于65时,杠杆率对经济增长的作用并不明显,说明经济可能进入了滞胀阶段;3)经济增长-足值杠杆率的关于对泡沫杠杆率存在双门门限效应,分别是43、49,当泡沫杠杆率小于43时,增加泡沫杠杆率对经济的增长的促进效应小于泡沫杠杆率介于[43,49]区间的效应,当泡沫杠杆率大于49时,泡沫杠杆率对经济增长的促进作用不再明显.     

佛山城市绿地系统环境效益的研究

选取佛山代表公园绿地、生产绿地、防护绿地和附属绿地等绿地系统作为研究对象,对其系统中的环境效益进行了研究。研究表明,各类绿地系统均具有减少噪声、降低温度、吸收CO2、增加湿度、吸收有害气体、净化环境等功能,并从环境效益的角度,提出了适当的栽种密度、常绿阔叶植物有利于充分发挥绿地系统的环境效益功能等建议。     

温度和湿度对P-CNT自感知混凝土压敏性的影响

为研究温度与湿度对自感知混凝土(SSC)感知性能的影响,通过低温等离子体改性处理技术对碳纳米管(CNT)进行官能团嫁接,使其在水性体系下获得较好的分散性,并将改性后的CNT(P-CNT)加入混凝土中制备P-CNT/SSC传感器,通过改变含水率与温度条件研究P-CNT/SSC传感器的极化效应与循环加载下的自感知性能。试验结果表明:过高或过低的含水率均不利于SSC的感知性能,其中变化最为明显的是饱水状态下的P-CNT/SSC传感器,其应力敏感系数下降89.8%,并且压敏曲线极不稳定;在变温试验中,P-CNT/SSC传感器的电阻率与温度之间呈现负相关性,高温和低温下的应力敏感系数相较于常温组试件,分别下降了约35.66%和44.53%,并且压敏曲线整体出现了上移或下滑的趋势;P-CNT/SSC传感器在工程应用中的最佳测试环境为常温、自然含水率。     

Patterns of artificial avian nest predation by introduced rats in a fragmented laurel forest (Tenerife,Canary Islands)

The importance of introduced rats as damaging factors on island biotas is globally recognized. The predation of artificial avian nests by Ship rats (Rattus rattus) in fragmented laurel forests in Tenerife (Canary Islands) was explored. The influence of road edge, patch type, and position (ground versus tree) on nest survival in two forest remnants differing in conservation degree, were assessed using failure‐time analysis. Overall, nest predation was greater in the preserved than in the disturbed remnant. Nest predation also differed among and within patches, variation being greater within the disturbed remnant. The probability of nest failure was higher at the interior than along the road edge in both remnants, but the road edge effect on nest predation was more intense in the disturbed remnant. Predation pressure was higher in patches of mature, closed canopy or dense understorey with stump sprouting. Ground nests were predated at higher rates than tree nests at any location. These results contrast with other nest predation studies in fragmented landscapes where forest edges rather than the interior are more frequently used by predators. Predatory activity by rats seems negatively affected by forest disturbance and road edge effect. Overall, artificial nest predation patterns by rats confirm a potential predation risk for the avifauna of the Canarian laurel forest. This should be considered in implementing conservation management programmes.     

改善供应链库存管理绩效的系统思考——以啤酒游戏为例

运用基于系统动力学的动态研究的方法,以啤酒游戏为例,从动态复杂性的视角,探讨了改善供应链库存管理绩效的影响因素和解决方案。认为"系统结构""控制策略"和"控制参数"是影响供应链库存管理绩效的3类要素,提出了调整订货周期匹配订货提前期的"结构性解决方案"、基于考虑已发出订单和在途货物量的"策略性解决方案"和基于参数控制的"操作性解决方案"。并且,通过系统仿真分析和人工试验,研究了这3类要素在集中控制和分散控制模式下对库存绩效的影响。结果表明,这3类解决方案在集中控制模式下的有效性依次递增,而在分散控制模式下的有效性依次递减。该结果展示了多级供应链库存系统的动态复杂性,以及系统思考在处理动态复杂性方面的重要性和有效性。     

Cladocera and Copepoda of Shokalsky Island: new data from northwest Siberia

Information on the freshwater fauna of the remote Arctic territories is very patchy, and most of the isolated islands of the Arctic Ocean remain absolutely unexplored. The pioneer data on the species composition of microcrustaceans of Shokalsky Island (northwest Siberia, Russia) is reported here. The initial three-year research revealed a total of 31 new for the area species of Cladocera and Copepoda, including new records for the whole of northwestern Siberia. Comparing the interannual differences in faunal composition, we suggested the hypothesis of the existence of a cryptic pool of species’ resting stages, which can invade the community in the event of favourable environmental conditions in the Arctic freshwaters. We also compiled all the available data from different parts of northern Siberia and compared them with the fauna of Shokalsky Island to analyse the connection between the diversity and distributional patterns of copepods and cladoceran species and the climate conditions of different territories.