首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
文章检索
  按 检索   检索词:      
出版年份:   被引次数:   他引次数: 提示:输入*表示无穷大
  收费全文   2502篇
  免费   123篇
  国内免费   100篇
系统科学   234篇
丛书文集   69篇
教育与普及   30篇
理论与方法论   5篇
现状及发展   32篇
综合类   2331篇
自然研究   24篇
  2024年   12篇
  2023年   13篇
  2022年   44篇
  2021年   38篇
  2020年   44篇
  2019年   35篇
  2018年   34篇
  2017年   27篇
  2016年   48篇
  2015年   74篇
  2014年   140篇
  2013年   87篇
  2012年   194篇
  2011年   191篇
  2010年   164篇
  2009年   144篇
  2008年   164篇
  2007年   171篇
  2006年   151篇
  2005年   110篇
  2004年   127篇
  2003年   97篇
  2002年   87篇
  2001年   66篇
  2000年   62篇
  1999年   47篇
  1998年   38篇
  1997年   61篇
  1996年   41篇
  1995年   32篇
  1994年   28篇
  1993年   36篇
  1992年   21篇
  1991年   19篇
  1990年   26篇
  1989年   25篇
  1988年   12篇
  1987年   7篇
  1986年   1篇
  1985年   4篇
  1984年   3篇
排序方式: 共有2725条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
通过对大学生进行中国文化和美国文化象征对比调查,分析大学生认同的美国文化象征及其汉语翻译情况,以及大学生认同的中国文化及其英语翻译情况,了解文科大学生和理工科大学生在选取中国文化象征和美国文化象征上的差异。调查表明大学生能准确地表达美国文化象征及其汉语翻译,而表达中国文化象征及其英语翻译时却不尽如人意。通过在大学英语教学课程目标中明确提出中国文化在英语教学中的作为和地位,在教学内容上增加英语介绍中国文化的相关题材和信息,在教学方法上运用多种策略激发学生学习中国文化,以及教师提高中国文化素养等措施,将中国文化融入大学英语教学,使文化教学和语言教学有机融合。  相似文献   
2.
By linking measures of forecast accuracy as well as testing procedures with regard to forecast rationality this paper investigates aggregated survey forecasts with forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months for the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar and, hence, for four different currency regimes. The rationality of the exchange rate predictions is initially assessed utilizing tests for unbiasedness and efficiency which indicate that the investigated forecasts are irrational in the sense that the predictions are biased. As one major contribution of this paper, it is subsequently shown that these results are not consistent with an alternative, less restrictive, measure of rationality. Investigating the order of integration of the time series as well as cointegrating relationships, this empirical evidence supports the conclusion that the majority of forecasts are in fact rational. Regarding forerunning properties of the predictions, the results are rather mediocre, with shorter term forecasts for the tightly managed USD/CNY FX regime being one exception. As one additional important and novel evaluation result, it can be concluded, that the currency regime matters for the quality of exchange rate forecasts.  相似文献   
3.
An implied assumption in the asymmetric conditional autoregressive range (ACARR) model is that upward range is independent of downward range. This paper scrutinizes this assumption on a broad variety of stock indices. Instead of independence, we find significant cross‐interdependence between the upward range and the downward range. Regression test shows that the cross‐interdependence cannot be explained by leverage effect. To include the cross‐interdependence, a feedback asymmetric conditional autoregressive range (FACARR) model is proposed. Empirical studies are performed on a variety of stock indices, and the results show that the FACARR model outperforms the ACARR model with high significance for both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample forecasting.  相似文献   
4.
Economists have increasingly elicited probabilistic expectations from survey respondents. Subjective probabilistic expectations show great promise to improve the estimation of structural models of decision making under uncertainty. However, a robust finding in these surveys is an inappropriate heap of responses at “50%,” suggesting that some of these responses are uninformative. The way these 50s are treated in the subsequent analysis is of major importance. Taking the 50s at face value will bias any aggregate statistics. Conversely, deleting them is not appropriate if some of these answers do convey some information. Furthermore, the attention of researchers is so focused on this heap of 50s that they do not consider the possibility that other answers may be uninformative as well. This paper proposes to take a fresh look at these questions using a new method based on weak assumptions to identify the informativeness of an answer. Applying the method to probabilistic expectations of equity returns in three waves of the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999–2001, I find that: (i) at least 65% of the 50s convey no information at all; (ii) it is the answer most often provided among the answers identified as uninformative; (iii) but even if the 50s are a major contributor to noise, they represent at best 70% of the identified uninformative answers. These findings have various implications for survey design.  相似文献   
5.
《Journal of Natural History》2012,46(15-16):919-935
A new giant cave-dwelling species of planthopper of the family Meenoplidae (Fulgoromorpha) is described from the Tsingy de Bemaraha National Park in western Madagascar, with information on its distribution and ecology. As the new species could not be placed in any of the previously described genera, a new genus is established. This is the first record of a cavernicolous meenoplid from the Afrotropical Region, and the second cave-dwelling Fulgoromorphan species from Madagascar. It is also the second example of island gigantism in the Fulgoromorpha from Madagascar.  相似文献   
6.
《Journal of Natural History》2012,46(37-38):2413-2435
ABSTRACT

The Blackcap, Sylvia atricapilla, is one of the few passerine species that breeds in all the Macaronesian archipelagos. The sedentary habits of these populations contrast with the migratory populations from the Western Europe. However, little is known for Azorean populations. We assessed the phylogeography of populations from the Azores based on sequences of two mitochondrial genes and one nuclear gene in the Z-chromosome. We also analysed differences in eight morphometric characters from a total of 282 Blackcaps from all the Azores islands. Our results suggest the occurrence of historical and/or current gene flow among birds from all the islands. Blackcaps from the Azores are close relatives of those from Madeira and Portugal, indicating a recent range expansion to the Azores in the last 0.1 million years. The analysis of morphometric data showed a high morphological diversity among and within the islands, probably related to ecological traits.  相似文献   
7.
The paper considers the return and range model with dynamic conditional correlations (DCC). The paper suggests the new specifications for the asymmetric effects on log‐volatilities and dynamic correlations, combined with long‐run dependences. The new DCC model can be estimated by the quasi‐maximum likelihood method. Empirical analysis on Nikkei 225, Hang Seng and Straits Times indices shows the daily, weekly and monthly pattern of asymmetric effects. For the period including the global financial crisis, the new DCC model provides plausible one‐step‐ahead forecasts of the VaR thresholds, and yields positive economic values of switching from other DCC models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
8.
Assuming that private forecasters learn inflation dynamics to form their inflation expectations and that they believe a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) to capture the true data‐generating process of inflation, we aim at establishing the role of backward‐ and forward‐looking information in the inflation expectation formation process. We find that longer term expectations are crucial in shaping shorter horizon expectations. While the influence of backward‐looking information seems to diminish over time, we do not find evidence of a structural break in the expectation formation process of professional forecasters. Our results further suggest that the weight put on longer term expectations does not solely reflect a mean‐reverting process to trend inflation. Rather, it might also capture beliefs about the central bank's long‐run inflation target and its credibility to achieve inflation stabilization.  相似文献   
9.
GPS-RTK技术在建筑轴线放样中的应用   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
全球卫星定位技术(GPS)作为一项高新技术,具有全天候、高精度、速度快等显著特点,在建筑业中已得到广泛应用,但是目前GPS-RTK技术(GPS实时动态定位技术)用于建筑轴线放样的还不多。通过实例将利用GPS-RTK技术放样结果与GPS静态观测结果进行对比分析,证实了GPS-RTK技术放样建筑轴线的精度能够满足要求。  相似文献   
10.
We study the performance of recently developed linear regression models for interval data when it comes to forecasting the uncertainty surrounding future stock returns. These interval data models use easy‐to‐compute daily return intervals during the modeling, estimation and forecasting stage. They have to stand up to comparable point‐data models of the well‐known capital asset pricing model type—which employ single daily returns based on successive closing prices and might allow for GARCH effects—in a comprehensive out‐of‐sample forecasting competition. The latter comprises roughly 1000 daily observations on all 30 stocks that constitute the DAX, Germany's main stock index, for a period covering both the calm market phase before and the more turbulent times during the recent financial crisis. The interval data models clearly outperform simple random walk benchmarks as well as the point‐data competitors in the great majority of cases. This result does not only hold when one‐day‐ahead forecasts of the conditional variance are considered, but is even more evident when the focus is on forecasting the width or the exact location of the next day's return interval. Regression models based on interval arithmetic thus prove to be a promising alternative to established point‐data volatility forecasting tools. Copyright ©2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号