人因分析:需要、问题和发展趋势

论述了人因分析对人机系统的合理设计、特别是对提高系统可靠性、安全性的重要意义 ,界定了系统人因分析概念的涵义 ,提出了人因分析学科在理论与应用方面面临的九大问题 :人因分析的难度 ;对人因的再认识——个体、群体、组织 ;环境与人行为的关系 ;人员可靠性分析 ( HRA)方法 ;人误机理 ;客观性与一致性 ;数据的可用性 ;文化因素 ;组织管理层的人因分析 .最后从理论与应用两方面讨论了人因分析学科近期应发展的三个范畴 :人因分析基础研究 ;人 -机系统设计指导 ;安全评价与事故防范 .     

长江上游铜锣峡河段卵砾石推移质输沙规律研究

西部山区河段具有水面比降大、河床推移质粒径粗、糙率较大等特点,因此西部山区河段的水沙特性与平原河流差异明显,采用现有的推移质输沙公式来预测山区河段的泥沙输移情况存在较大误差。针对这一现象,基于爱因斯坦均匀沙无量纲输沙公式,考虑到推移质周围床沙对其遮蔽影响,以V/Uc=1为推移质起动临界状态建立了输沙率计算公式,最后以长江上游铜锣峡河段为研究对象,根据近二十年实测的水沙数据,将新计算式与多个经典公式进行精度比较,从计算结果来看,在预测大比降卵砾石山区河流时,新建立的计算式计算精度更高,能更好的反映其输沙规律。     

实物期权视角的CAPM有效性检验

实物期权对资产定价的非线性影响会导致本质为线性定价的CAPM模型失效.本文以沪深A股2000-2014年间1503家上市公司为样本,利用市值规模、账面市值比、资本支出和总资产回报四个企业特征变量作为实物期权的代理变量,分别对个股贝塔和预期超额收益率进行实物期权调整,给出了经实物期权调整后CAPM有效的证据;而且,较之市值规模和账面市值比,资本支出和总资产回报更加能够反映实物期权对CAPM有效性的影响.此外,实物期权调整对CAPM有效性的影响对处于生命周期早期阶段的企业、高科技行业以及对股权分置改革和次贷危机后的子样本更为明显.     

Natural history of the Lined Seedeater Sporophila lineola (Aves: Thraupidae) in southeastern Brazil

The Lined Seedeater (Sporophila lineola) is a migratory species that inhabits a variety of open habitats in South America. We studied the breeding biology and territorial behaviour of a colour-banded population of the species in the Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Campus Florestal (1–19,8808ºS, –44,4136ºW), during two breeding seasons (2014/2015 and 2015/2016), which spans from December to April. We monitored 74 nests of this species. The nest is a low cup supported between a fork. Nests are mainly built with grass stems and rootlets, with spider-web used to hold the material together and to bind the nest to its supporting plant. Females are solely responsible for nest building and incubation, which is synchronic, and also for feeding nestlings to a large extent. Males are responsible for defending the territory, which corresponds to a small portion of the home range restricted to the nest environs, and also feed the nestlings. Mean clutch size is two eggs (78% of nests monitored), with clutches of three (20.3%) and four (1.7%) eggs also observed. Eggs are whitish, covered with dark brown blotches and spots to a variable extent. Mean incubation period, considered as the period between the onset of incubation and hatching of the first egg, is 11 days. Nestling period, considered as the period between hatching of the first egg and fledging of the last young, is 10 days. During the first breeding season, the simple percentage of successful nests was 34.1%, while the Mayfield success was 29.8%, with slightly higher values observed during the second breeding season, with 39.4% and 35.7%, respectively. We recorded, for the first time, three cases of polygamy in the species. We also recorded breeding site fidelity for the first time in the species, with males returning to the same territory owned in a previous breeding season.     

The US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate: Structural Modeling and Forecasting During the Recent Financial Crises

The paper investigates the determinants of the US dollar/euro within the framework of the asset pricing theory of exchange rate determination, which posits that current exchange rate fluctuations are determined by the entire path of current and future revisions in expectations about fundamentals. In this perspective, we innovate by conditioning on Fama–French and Carhart risk factors, which directly measures changing market expectations about the economic outlook, on new financial condition indexes and macroeconomic variables. The macro‐finance augmented econometric model has a remarkable in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictive ability, largely outperforming a standard autoregressive specification. We also document a stable relationship between the US dollar/euro Carhart momentum conditional correlation (CCW) and the euro area business cycle. CCW signals a progressive weakening in economic conditions since June 2014, consistent with the scattered recovery from the sovereign debt crisis and the new Greek solvency crisis exploded in late spring/early summer 2015. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting key US macroeconomic variables with a factor‐augmented Qual VAR

In this paper, we first extract factors from a monthly dataset of 130 macroeconomic and financial variables. These extracted factors are then used to construct a factor‐augmented qualitative vector autoregressive (FA‐Qual VAR) model to forecast industrial production growth, inflation, the Federal funds rate, and the term spread based on a pseudo out‐of‐sample recursive forecasting exercise over an out‐of‐sample period of 1980:1 to 2014:12, using an in‐sample period of 1960:1 to 1979:12. Short‐, medium‐, and long‐run horizons of 1, 6, 12, and 24 months ahead are considered. The forecast from the FA‐Qual VAR is compared with that of a standard VAR model, a Qual VAR model, and a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR). In general, we observe that the FA‐Qual VAR tends to perform significantly better than the VAR, Qual VAR and FAVAR (barring some exceptions relative to the latter). In addition, we find that the Qual VARs are also well equipped in forecasting probability of recessions when compared to probit models.     

纤维增强薄壁注塑件翘曲变形耦合有限元分析

基于耦合有限元分析方法,运用模流分析软件Moldflow和结构分析软件Abaqus进行联合仿真,计算了脱模后薄壁塑件的应力分布和翘曲变形情况,并通过对比验证了该方法的有效性,随后考察了主要工艺参数和壁厚对翘曲变形的影响。研究结果表明：随着翘曲变形的产生塑件内的残余应力随之减小;在考察的工艺参数范围内,壁厚是影响翘曲变形的主要因素,随着壁厚的增加,翘曲变形量减小,而工艺参数对翘曲变形的影响则相对较小;但随着壁厚持续增加,因塑件刚度的增加,壁厚对翘曲变形的影响程度随之减小。该结果与文献结论一致。     

基于限制因素分区的耕地质量保育与提升探讨——以湖北鹤峰县为例

以湖北省恩施州鹤峰县为研究区,以地类图斑为研究尺度,从立地条件等方面入手构建耕地质量等级评价指标体系.运用障碍度模型和局部自相关方法,揭示研究区耕地质量现状和空间分布特征,识别鹤峰县耕地质量提升主导限制因素,划分限制因素类型区,最后综合之前分析成果进行耕地质量提升分区,探讨不同分区下耕地质量的提升措施.结果表明：1) 鹤峰县整体耕地以中等级耕地为主,耕地质量空间分布呈现北部、西南部高和西北、东南低的格局;2) 存在主导限制因素为灌溉能力、有效磷2类的共7种“主导限制因素－次要限制因素”类型分区;3) 将现有耕地分为耕地核心保护区、适度改良区和重点整治区3个一级类和8个二级类,针对各分区特点重点实施蓄水保土和养分提升等措施.研究成果可为鹤峰县乃至鄂西南山区耕地质量提升和耕地保护整治提供方法借鉴.     

墨西哥Perdido带上Wilcox组油藏富集模式分析

为了明确Perdido带上Wilcox组油藏富集控制因素,以上Wilcox组油藏为研究对象,通过有效供烃范围、油输导方式、圈闭形成与生排烃期匹配关系及保存条件对比分析,探讨了Perdido带上Wilcox组油藏富集控制因素及成藏模式。研究认为,供烃区规模对油藏规模控制作用明显;上Wilcox组油藏存在顺源式、向源式和背源式3种垂向运移方式,其中,顺源式和向源式运移有利于油藏富集;圈闭形成与生排烃期匹配较好的油藏,供烃充足,油藏规模大;保存是油藏富集的必要条件,遭受严重破坏的油藏规模小;建立了Perdido带上Wilcox组3种油藏成藏模式,其中,“双侧供烃-顺源输导”和“单侧供烃-向源输导”有利于油藏富集,是该区寻找规模性油藏的有利模式。