我国乡村旅游研究进展

随着我国乡村旅游的快速发展，乡村旅游研究也受到愈来愈多的关注。本文从乡村旅游概念、乡村旅游资源研究、乡村旅游与农业发展关系及乡村旅游发展策略四个角度对近几年我国乡村旅游研究脉络进行梳理，以期反应这一领域研究进展及未来研究方向。     

浅谈英语教学中的情感教育

英语教学作为语言教学的一个过程,同时也是一个情感交流的过程.本文以英语教学中的情感教育为基础,深入分析了情感教育对于提高英语学习效率的重要性.教学中如果能正确的把握情感教育,既可以塑造学生良好的品行,又能激发学生的学习兴趣,从而提高教学质量。     

技术经济论证在旅游项目开发中的作用

随着旅游热潮涌动，各地纷纷开发旅游项目，但是大多数旅游项目的开发都缺乏严格的论证。对旅游项目开发进行技术经济论证的主要目的在于为开发规划和投资决策提供科学依据，以提高项目决策的成功率，促进投资决策的科学化。要重点论证开发者的实力和资格，进行旅游资源的调查与评价，做到有的放矢，使旅游开发取得最佳的社会效益、经济效益和环境效益。     

Correcting the January optimism effect

Each month, various professional forecasters give forecasts for next year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and unemployment. January is a special month, when the forecast horizon moves to the following calendar year. Instead of deleting the January data when analyzing forecast updates, I propose a periodic version of a test regression for weak-form efficiency. An application of this periodic model for many forecasts across a range of countries shows that in January GDP forecast updates are positive, whereas the forecast updates for unemployment are negative. I document that this January optimism about the new calendar year is detrimental to forecast accuracy. To empirically analyze Okun's law, I also propose a periodic test regression, and its application provides more support for this law.     

产学研协同发展、知识积累与技术创新效率——基于动态面板门限机理实证分析

基于产学研耦合协调度测度模型、数据包络分析模型以及动态面板门限回归模型,运用2013～2017年中国30个省市的面板数据,研究以知识积累为门限变量时,产学研协同发展水平对区域技术创新效率产生的影响.实证结果表明:当以知识积累水平为门限变量时,产学研协同发展水平与技术创新效率间存在明显的双门限效应;随着知识积累水平的提升...     

孔子仁学及其现代意义

孔子仁学包含着东方人文主义和中国封建社会道德伦理体系及其建构的方法论。在我国目前的转型期社会,一方面应积极弘扬孔子仁学中的人文主义,达到为先进道德伦理的生成进行“烧荒育肥”的目的;另一方面应积极借鉴其在构建封建社会道德伦理规范方面的方法论经验,结合我国目前社会发展的实际情况,建立和完善先进的道德伦理规范。     

Can We Predict the Financial Markets Based on Google's Search Queries?

We look into the interaction of Google's search queries and several aspects of international equity markets. Using a novel methodology for selecting words and a vector autoregressive modeling approach, we study whether the search queries of finance‐related words can have an impact on returns, volatility of returns and traded volume in four different English‐speaking countries. We identify several words whose search frequency is associated with changes in the dependent variables. In particular, we find that increases in search queries including the word stock predict increased volatility and decreased index returns over the next week. On top of that, we investigate the performance of a market‐timing strategy based on the search frequency of this word and benchmark it against random words from the Word‐Net database and a naive buy‐and‐hold strategy. The results of this empirical application are positive and particularly stronger during the global crisis of 2009. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

上市公司期权激励公告的市场反应研究

在回顾期权激励相关研究的基础上,利用事件研究法对《上市公司股权激励管理办法》实施以来我国上市公司期权激励公告的市场反应进行了研究,并检验了不同市场对期权激励公告的反应是否相同.研究表明,市场对期权激励公告持积极态度,公告公司股票能获得比非公告公司股票更高的累积超额收益,且不同市场股票的CAR没有差异.     

基于MDA机制的跨洋航空网时隙分配方法

考虑到飞机跨洋飞行的限制性条件,提出了一种改进的多单元双向拍卖机制来满足跨洋航空主干网的时隙分配的需要。该机制将VCG双向拍卖和传统的多单元双向拍卖进行结合和改进,并从激励相容、预算平衡、个人理性和机制效率等方面证明了该双向拍卖机制的性质。最后的仿真结果表明,该双向拍卖机制具有较高的效率。     

Overreaction in Survey Exchange Rate Forecasts

We use survey data on five bilateral exchange rates to provide empirical evidence of the fact that professional forecasters of foreign exchange rates behave irrationally, in the specific sense that they respond inaccurately to available information in the market when forming their predictions. In particular, we find systematic biases in the forecasts resulting in the overreaction of analysts to past information contained in the exchange rate dynamics: forecasters change their prediction more than it would be rational on the basis of past realized changes. In addition, forecasters are heterogeneous in their irrationality: low performers in previous periods show a more pronounced overreaction effect. This can be read as an indication of perpetration of past errors and continued inability to learn from the past. In the second part of the paper, we exploit the novel structure of our dataset, which consists of survey data extracted from the Bloomberg platform and readily available to anyone. This feature allows us to consider their own and others' past forecasts as part of the information set that analysts use in making their predictions. By using past forecasts as proxies for relevant macroeconomic variables, we find evidence that analysts fail to correctly process not only the information contained in the spot rate past dynamics but also the information in this broader set. We see this as confirmation of the existence of inefficiency and heterogeneity between low and high performers also when full information is available. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.