局部接触变形模型对简支梁多次弹塑性撞击模拟结果的比较

针对钝圆柱头刚性质量水平撞击理想弹塑性简支梁问题,比较分析了3种典型的局部接触变形模型,即弹塑性剪切变形(EPS)模型、Johnson钝楔压入(BI)模型和单轴压缩(UC)模型对可能出现的多次弹塑性撞击现象的模拟结果的影响.通过引入多次撞击和分离条件,将3种模型加以推广,并结合有限差分法,提出了求解多次弹塑性撞击问题的方法.通过对算例的比较可知,3种模型均可推广用于多次弹塑性撞击现象的模拟,它们对撞击力的模拟结果有差别,对撞击区的开始和结束时间等多次弹塑性撞击的分布特征的模拟结果则完全一致,对梁中端位移、刚性质量速度和梁上的应力等弹塑性撞击动力响应的模拟结果也完全一致.     

Mathematical formalisms in scientific practice: From denotation to model-based representation

The present paper argues that ‘mature mathematical formalisms’ play a central role in achieving representation via scientific models. A close discussion of two contemporary accounts of how mathematical models apply—the DDI account (according to which representation depends on the successful interplay of denotation, demonstration and interpretation) and the ‘matching model’ account—reveals shortcomings of each, which, it is argued, suggests that scientific representation may be ineliminably heterogeneous in character. In order to achieve a degree of unification that is compatible with successful representation, scientists often rely on the existence of a ‘mature mathematical formalism’, where the latter refers to a—mathematically formulated and physically interpreted—notational system of locally applicable rules that derive from (but need not be reducible to) fundamental theory. As mathematical formalisms undergo a process of elaboration, enrichment, and entrenchment, they come to embody theoretical, ontological, and methodological commitments and assumptions. Since these are enshrined in the formalism itself, they are no longer readily obvious to either the novice or the proficient user. At the same time as formalisms constrain what may be represented, they also function as inferential and interpretative resources.     

Spatial dependence model with feature difference

This paper presents a new spatial dependence model with an adjustment of feature difference. The model accounts for the spatial autocorrelation in both the outcome variables and residuals. The feature difference adjustment in the model helps to emphasize feature changes across neighboring units, while suppressing unobserved covariates that are present in the same neighborhood. The prediction at a given unit incorporates components that depend on the differences between the values of its main features and those of its neighboring units. In contrast to conventional spatial regression models, our model does not require a comprehensive list of global covariates necessary to estimate the outcome variable at the unit, as common macro-level covariates are differenced away in the regression analysis. Using the real estate market data in Hong Kong, we applied Gibbs sampling to determine the posterior distribution of each model parameter. The result of our empirical analysis confirms that the adjustment of feature difference with an inclusion of the spatial error autocorrelation produces better out-of-sample prediction performance than other conventional spatial dependence models. In addition, our empirical analysis can identify components with more significant contributions.     

Multicategory Purchase Incidence Models for Partitions of Product Categories

We analyze multicategory purchases of households by means of heterogeneous multivariate probit models that relate to partitions formed from a total of 25 product categories. We investigate both prior and post hoc partitions. We search model structures by a stochastic algorithm and estimate models by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The best model in terms of cross‐validated log‐likelihood refers to a post hoc partition with two groups; the second‐best model considers all categories as one group. Among prior partitions with at least two category groups a five‐group model performs best. Effects on average basket value differ for the model with five prior category groups from those for the best‐performing model in 40% and 24% of the investigated categories for features and displays, respectively. In addition, the model with five prior category groups also underestimates total sales revenue across all categories by about 28%. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国洛阳牡丹文化节发展现状与对策研究——以第31届中国洛阳牡丹文化节为例

中国洛阳牡丹文化节的前身是始于1983年的洛阳牡丹花会,迄今已经连续举办了32届,尤其自2011年升格为国家级节会以来更是取得重大突破,其对地区经济社会发展的促进作用也日益凸显。然而,升级后中国洛阳牡丹文化节仍存在若干问题,突出表现在宣传工作、文化活动、节会瓶颈、旅游消费等方面。未来完善和提升牡丹文化节的对策主要有:加强创新、完善节会宣传模式;广泛参与、彰显民众主体地位;凝聚合力、突破节会发展瓶颈;积极引导、挖掘公众消费潜力等。     

具有不可忽略退出的面板数据混合半参数变系数模型

由于面板数据经常出现由信息性退出而引起的缺失数据,故其统计分析比较复杂。本文假定响应变量服从部分线性半参变系数混合效应模型,其中非参数系数函数依赖于相应的退出时间。利用二步估计方法的思想求得参数与非参数部分的相合估计,减少了同时估计的参数的个数,避免了估计方程中由较多参数引起的多重共线性问题。     

音频贝叶斯谐波模型中参数的提取

由于音乐信号具有暂态特性、夹杂噪声、且它的基频在频域上具有复杂的结构,因此分析音乐信号是一项复杂的工作.本文在分析音乐信号时引入了音频贝叶斯谐波模型,并在此基础上提出了一个基于贝叶斯谐波模型的简化模型,然后采用可逆跳转蒙特卡罗(RJMCMC)采样算法对此模型中基频参数和谐波幅度进行了估计,仿真结果表明该算法取得了较好的效果.     

全隐式E-CUSP迎风格式大攻角分离流数值模拟

采用全隐式、低耗散E-CUSP格式,通过求解雷诺平均Navier-Stokes方程耦合Spalart-Allmaras(SA)湍流模型,模拟了细长旋成体在超声速、大攻角下的流场,分析了背风面涡的发展过程.结果表明:E-CUSP格式耦合SA湍流模型能够准确地模拟背风面的流动分离和精细的二次涡,对横向分离具有较高的模拟精度;预测的物面压力系数分布和激波位置与实验数据吻合良好,力和力矩的相对误差在1.98%之内;E-CUSP格式可用于模拟复杂的分离流动,具有高的计算精度和效率.     

基于有序Logistic回归模型的北京高校男生有氧能力

为探索北京高校男生有氧能力的影响因素,通过随机抽样法抽取134名18~25岁北京高校男生,空腹抽静脉血测血液指标,用德国MetaMax 3B系统实时监测气体代谢,通过线性递增方案测得VO2max相对值。基于Spearman相关、有序Logistic回归等分析方法进行分析处理。结果表明：北京高校男生有序Logistic回归方程：Ln{P(Y≤1|x)/1-P(Y≤1|x)}=-2.757-0.067*X1-0.025*X2+0.066*X3+0.018*X4-0.009*X5;Ln{P(Y≤2|x)/1-P(Y≤2|x)}=-0.771-0.067*X1-0.025*X2+0.066*X3+0.018*X4-0.009*X5（X1=体重、X2=心率(heart rate, HR)、X3=每搏输出量(stroke volume, SVI)、X4=心室射血时间(ventricular ejection time, VET)、X5=血红蛋白(hemoglobin, HGB)）。回归方程模型系数综合检验步(step)、块(block)、模型(model)检验的P值均小于0.01;拟合优度检验的-2对数似然值(-2LL)为159.374,Cox&SnellR2为0.331,NagelkerkeR2为0.373;预测等级1准确率为45.5%,等级2准确率为100%,等级3准确率为100%,综合为81.8%,说明Logistic回归模型性能良好。Hosmer和Lemeshow检验预测值与观望值无显著性差异（P>0.05）。可见北京高校男生定量负荷心功能、血液指标与有氧能力的多元Logistic回归模型拟合度较好,且HR、SVI、VET、HGB是有氧运动能力的重要预测因素。     

几个导出模型的BLU估计间的关系的研究

首先给出分块奇异模型的一种新的导出模型,得出其M2X1β的BLU估计;讨论分块模型与几个导出模型的BLU估计之间的关系,给出这几个分块导出模型的M2X1β的BLU估计相等的充要条件.