城市人口-城区面积异速生长模型的理论基础、推广形式及其实证分析

从基于广义Beckmann Davis模型的关于城市人口规模分布的三参数Zipf模型P(r) =C(r-α) -dz 和城市人口 城区面积的异速生长定律A(r) =aP(r) b 出发 ,导出关于城区面积规模分布的三参数Zipf模型A(r) =K(r -α) -d,然后将它们还原为一组奇异对称序列 :Pm =P1λ1-m,Am=A1γ1-m,fm =f1δm -1,从这一组几何级数序列出发推导出城市人口 城区面积异速生长模型的一般形式 ,进而证明 :当令Ps =∑rP(r)、As =∑rA(r)时 ,下式成立 :As(t)∝Ps(t)bs,且当λ≤δ、γ≤δ ,即城市规模分布的分维D≥ 1时 ,标度因子bs =1;当λ >δ ,γ>δ ,即分维D <1时 ,有bs=(d - 1) / (dz- 1) ,从而将城市人口 城区面积异速生长关系推广到城市体系的总量分析领域 ,并且发现bs =(lnA1-lna) /lnP1,即城市体系总量的异速生长系数在理论上等于最大城市的异速生长系数 .以河南省的城市和城市体系为检验对象对本文的理论推导结果进行了实证分析 .     

基于电刺激的多模式康复系统设计和研究

针对脑卒中后肢体功能障碍、褥疮及疼痛,分析了临床上常用的治疗参数,设计了多模式电刺激治疗系统。该系统通过触摸屏与主芯片STM32L152RCT6进行通信,控制升压和极性转换电路产生幅值、频率及脉宽均可连续调节的双极性电刺激脉冲,验证了系统的稳定性和镇痛的效果。通过试验验证了系统能稳定工作,且电脉冲幅值与电阻值的变化无关,且能提高受试者的疼痛阈值。能产生临床使用的电刺激疗法的各类参数,有利于临床实验和相关科研的开展。电刺激技术能够缓解人体疼痛,提高疼痛阈值。     

语音识别中HMM与自组织神经网络结合的混合模型

基于隐马尔可夫模型和自组织神经网络模型提出了一种用于语音识别的混合模型,给出了训练调整权向量的算法,实验结果表明其在语音识别中具有很好的性能·     

Forecasting regional house price inflation: a comparison between dynamic factor models and vector autoregressive models

This paper uses the dynamic factor model framework, which accommodates a large cross‐section of macroeconomic time series, for forecasting regional house price inflation. In this study, we forecast house price inflation for five metropolitan areas of South Africa using principal components obtained from 282 quarterly macroeconomic time series in the period 1980:1 to 2006:4. The results, based on the root mean square errors of one to four quarters ahead out‐of‐sample forecasts over the period 2001:1 to 2006:4 indicate that, in the majority of the cases, the Dynamic Factor Model statistically outperforms the vector autoregressive models, using both the classical and the Bayesian treatments. We also consider spatial and non‐spatial specifications. Our results indicate that macroeconomic fundamentals in forecasting house price inflation are important. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What do numerical (climate) models really represent?

The translation of a mathematical model into a numerical one employs various modifications in order to make the model accessible for computation. Such modifications include discretizations, approximations, heuristic assumptions, and other methods. The paper investigates the divergent styles of mathematical and numerical models in the case of a specific piece of code in a current atmospheric model. Cognizance of these modifications means that the question of the role and function of scientific models has to be reworked. Neither are numerical models pure intermediaries between theory and data, nor are they autonomous tools of inquiry. Instead, theory and data are transformed into a new symbolic form of research due to the fact that computation has become an essential requirement for every scientific practice. Therefore the question is posed: What do numerical (climate) models really represent?     

基于改进隶属云模型蚁群算法的喷涂机器人喷枪轨迹组合优化

摘要： 针对复杂曲面分片后的喷枪轨迹组合优化问题,利用哈密尔顿图将其转化为广义开环旅行商问题(OTSP),采用“问题无关的进化算法与问题相关的局部搜索相结合”的策略,首先引入隶属云模型来自适应调节蚁群算法中控制的随机性,然后引入K-opt局部搜索策略的基于改进隶属云模型蚁群算法(MCMACA)对喷枪轨迹组合优化的OTSP问题进行求解.仿真结果表明,改进隶属云模型蚁群算法的全局搜索性和局部收敛性更佳,在复杂曲面上对喷涂机器人喷枪轨迹进行优化具有明显的优越性.
关键词： 组中图分类号：文献标志码： A     

基于时间序列的灰色预测技术在估产模型中的应用

在建立估产模型过程中，引进基于时间序列的灰色预测技术，通过对样本点建立基于时间序列的灰色预测模型和常规的多元线性回归气象模型的分析比较，试图找到一种计算简单，数据要求少而精度较高，时效性较好的建模方法，为时间序列预测在农作物估产方面的应用作出一点探索。     

祁连山地区高分辨率气温降水量分布模型

充分利用气温、降水量空间统计分析的结果，通过在模型中引入坡度（SL）、坡向（SD）变量，对祁连山中东部地区气温、降水量空间变化模式进行尺度下移，得到了该地区具有多尺度特性的高空间分辨率气温、降水量的分析模型：T=a＋bH—kT cos SD sin SL，P=（a＋b ln H＋C ln y）（1＋kp sin SL）；进而计算了该地区7月份和年平均气温的分布式模型和年降水量分布式模型，得到了相应的栅格地图．验证结果表明这两个模型可以与山地冰川和森林分布区的气候分析资料很好地匹配．根据年降水量栅格地图的统计分析，将本区域内的最大降水高度带确定在4500m．     

Bioaccumulation processes in ecosystems

The fate of environmental pollutants — the various isotopes of elements, and inorganic or organic compounds — is a fundamental aspect of ecology and ecotoxicology, and bioaccumulation is a phenomenon often discussed in this context. Human activities have drastically altered natural concentrations of many substances in the environment and added numerous new chemicals. An understanding of the processes of bioaccumulation is important for several reasons. 1) Bioaccumulation in organisms may enhance the persistence of industrial chemicals in the ecosystem as a whole, since they can be fixed in the tissues of organisms. 2) Stored chemicals are not exposed to direct physical, chemical, or biochemical degradation. 3) Stored chemicals can directly affect an individual's health. 4) Predators of those organisms that have bioaccumulated harmful substances may be endangered by food chain effects. While former theories on the processes of bioaccumulation focused on single aspects that affect the extent of accumulation (such as the trophic level within the food chain or the lipophilicity of the chemical), modern theories are based on compartmental kinetics and the integration of various environmental interactions. Concepts include results from quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR), pharmacokinetics, ecophysiology and general biology, molecular genetic aspects and selection, and finally the structure of communities and man-made alterations in them.