Identifying US business cycle regimes using dynamic factors and neural network models

We use dynamic factors and neural network models to identify current and past states (instead of future) of the US business cycle. In the first step, we reduce noise in data by using a moving average filter. Dynamic factors are then extracted from a large-scale data set consisted of more than 100 variables. In the last step, these dynamic factors are fed into the neural network model for predicting business cycle regimes. We show that our proposed method follows US business cycle regimes quite accurately in-sample and out-of-sample without taking account of the historical data availability. Our results also indicate that noise reduction is an important step for business cycle prediction. Furthermore, using pseudo real time and vintage data, we show that our neural network model identifies turning points quite accurately and very quickly in real time.     

Biological characterization of the obligate symbiosis between Acropyga sauteri Forel (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and Eumyrmococcus smithii Silvestri (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae: Rhizoecinae) on Okinawa Island,southern Japan

The ant Acropyga sauteri Forel has an obligate, mutualistic symbiosis with a mealybug, Eumyrmococcus smithii Silvestri, on Okinawa Island, southern Japan. The mealybugs live inside ant nests nearly all their lives, and the ants depend on them for food. Alate foundress queens carry mealybugs during their nuptial flights, using them to establish new colonies at new sites. However, important aspects of the symbiosis have not yet been elucidated. The present study characterizes the basic biology of the symbiosis and describes for the first time the morphologies of all growth stages of E. smithii. Our study suggests that E. smithii has only one nymphal stage, followed by a female pupal stage or male prepupal stage. Intensive sampling of ant nests across seasons showed that A. sauteri prefers nest sites 5–20 cm underground. Acropyga sauteri produced reproductive stages mainly in mid‐March or early April, and numbers of both ant workers and mealybugs increased from spring to summer. Experimental determination of colony identity with a method using nestmate recognition by ants suggested that each ant colony rarely has a perimeter greater than 30 cm, that the ants are monogynous, and that different ant colonies are densely aggregated along the root system of a plant, adjacent to each other but not interflowing. Both symbiotic partners were vulnerable to attacks by several common subaerial ant species following physical disturbance to their nests.     

Nitric oxide biosynthesis, nitric oxide synthase inhibitors and arginase competition for L-arginine utilization

Nitric oxide (NO) is a recently discovered mediator produced by mammalian cells. It plays a key role in neurotransmission, control of blood pressure, and cellular defense mechanisms. Nitric oxide synthases (NOSs) catalyze the oxidation of L-arginine to NO and L-citrulline. NOSs are unique enzymes in that they possess on the same polypeptidic chain a reductase domain and an oxygenase domain closely related to cytochrome P450s. NO and superoxide formation as well as NOS stability are finely regulated by Ca²⁺/calmodulin interactions, by the cofactor tetrahydrobiopterin, and by substrate availability. Strong interactions between the L-arginine-metabolizing enzymes are clearly demonstrated by competition between NOSs and arginases for L-arginine utilization, and by potent inhibition of arginase activity by N^ω-hydroxy-L-arginine, an intermediate in the L-arginine to NO pathway.     

芽殖酵母细胞周期过程不同时期的定量观测

在芽殖酵母中构建CDC10-mCherry和SPC42-mCherry荧光蛋白, 作为酵母细胞周期不同时期的报告系统。根据酵母细胞中芽环(CDC10-mCherry)的产生和消失以及纺锤体极体(SPC42-mCherry)的复制和分离,可以测量细胞周期中 G1期、S期、Early M期和Late M期的时间长度。在此报告系统的基础上, 分别构建S期细胞周期蛋白CLB5-GFP和M 期细胞周期蛋白CLB2-GFP菌株, 实现单细胞观测, 检验报告系统工作的稳定性和准确性。该报告系统可作为研究酵母细胞周期不同时期时间长度等定量生物学问题的背景菌株。     

一类Kolmogorov系统的极限环

对一类n次Kolmogorov系统x=x(a0-a1x+a2xn-1-a3xn+a4xn-1y),y=y(b1xn-b2),(a0,a1,a2,a3,b1,b2>0,a0a1=a2a3,a4≠0,n≥3且n∈N)进行了研究.当a4>0时系统在第一象限内不存在极限环;当a4<0时讨论了系统平衡点的稳定性态,系统无环的充分条件以及在第一象限内存在唯一稳定极限环的条件.     

An Algorithm to Identify Positive Cycles in GPRs

The purpose of this paper is to identify cycles,and in particular positive cycle(s),in anactivity network under generalized precedence relations(GPRs).An algorithm is provided to searchfor such cycle(s).An improved depth-first search is adopted.An efficient arc-oriented representationis used in the algorithm to save on computer storage requirement.     

(Ⅲ)m=0型二次系统的极限环问题,(Ⅱ)

本文讨论了在条件0＜l＜(1)/(2), n＜0下,(Ⅲ)m=0型二次系统的极限环问题,证明了该系统在某些条件下最多只有一个极限环.     

实现经济周期的良性循环——宏观政策调节的目标

分析了经济周期出现的原因及其表现形式，并对改革开放以来我国经济所经历的三次周期性波动及目前正处于的第四次经济波动的原因与所采取的宏观经济政策进行了实证分析。     

克星循环的探讨

本文就克星循环现象,在全序关系下讨论,给出克星循环出现可能性概率,循环核的结构形式,以及处理克星循环的方法。