Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多平台基于方位时延差的目标运动分析

以拖曳阵列与本舰所构成的声纳系统为例 ,从双平台观点考虑 ,利用对目标的两方位及时延的量测为依据 ,研究了该系统的目标运动分析 (targetmotionanalysis,TMA)问题。采用了最大似然估计、扩展Kalman滤波(EKF)方法 ,实现了对目标运动参数的估计 ,并给出了它们的Cramer Rao低界 (CRLB)。通过仿真考察了参数变化对估计精度的影响。仿真结果表明上述方法具有较高定位精度。该方法适合于主、被动形式的多平台系统 ,且容易实现。     

影响牦牛初生重因素的系统分析

分析了影响牦牛初生重的六个因素和众多因子，母牦牛的产犊季节、牦牛的胎次、犊牛的性别对牦牛初生重影响最大；母牛的年龄、营养情况对初生重影响次之；放牧管理水平对初生重影响最小。     

对模糊随机向量凸集的定义及探讨

在模糊随机变量的基础上引入了模糊随机向量凸集的概念,给出了几个模糊随机凸集的例子.     

双势阱分子自发隧道效应的研究

用解析法对双势阱分子的自发隧道效应进行了研究,得到了粒子的自发隧道效应周期与能级裂距成反比关系,从而对隧道效应对双势阱分子激发态的稳定性贡献给予了积极的肯定.     

地下含水层热储井位置选择和布置

地下含水层热储开发技术面临一系列问题,寻找适合热储用的含水层和合理布置热储井是解决问题的第一步.综合考虑含水层的地质结构特征,适合热储的含水层应该是承压含水层,热储应该采用同层方式.单个热储井的影响半径可以通过热平衡和热扩散原理求得.合理布置热储井间的相对位置,可以有效抵消原有地下水的流动以及渗流系数不一致的影响.利用井之间的渗流耦合作用,在热储井之间布置调节井,主动控制热储水的波及范围,可以实现热储井布置的相对"紧凑".     

工作分析是人力资源管理的基础

针对现代企业人力资源管理的特点，阐述了人本管理的核心理念、工作分析的目的和作用，提出了把握工作分析的六大要点。     

Using Oil Analysis to Study the Wear Condition of Bearing in Trunnion of Convertor During/After Run-in Period

1Introduction Convertorisoneofthemainequipmentofsteel making.Thebearingsinthetrunnionofconvertorarecharacterizedby low speed,heavy loadandhuge dimension.Theyrevolve slowlywhenmoltensteelisaddedoremptied.Theirlife expectancyis20years.Incasetheyexperiencefailurein operation,theoutputoftheconvertorandeventhatofthe wholeproductlinewouldbeaffectedandhugelosswouldbe resultedin.Therefore,itisveryimportanttomasterthe workingconditionsofthebearings.Vibrationandoilanalyses aretwomaintechniquestomonito…     

Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

排球运动中的供能特点与营养补充

物质和能量代谢是人体各组织器官机能活动的基础，应用运动时物质和能量代谢规律指导训练期间的营养安排是非常有益的．通过对排球运动的特点进行分析，结合各供能系统的特点以及各种能量物质分解的先后关系，简要陈述排球比赛中的物质和能量代谢，分析了排球运动中疲劳产生的可能原因，有针对性地提出训练中的营养安排以及应当注意补充的几种营养物质。