Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

Forecasting VaR models under Different Volatility Processes and Distributions of Return Innovations

This paper provides clear‐cut evidence that the out‐of‐sample VaR (value‐at‐risk) forecasting performance of alternative parametric volatility models, like EGARCH (exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) or GARCH, and Markov regime‐switching models, can be considerably improved if they are combined with skewed distributions of asset return innovations. The performance of these models is found to be similar to that of the EVT (extreme value theory) approach. The performance of the latter approach can also be improved if asset return innovations are assumed to be skewed distributed. The performance of the Markov regime‐switching model is considerably improved if this model allows for EGARCH effects, for all different volatility regimes considered. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

员工隐私泄漏途径、危害及保护对策

针对员工在应聘、聘用以及解聘后都有可能面临各种隐私泄漏问题,总结目前员工隐私泄露的各种途径,以及隐私泄露对员工和企业所带来的危害,并参考国内外该领域知名学者之前的研究,从四个角度提出员工隐私保护对策.     

基于Bayes近似限法的串联系统置信区间的求解

运用基于Bayes的方法对红外空空导弹进行抗干扰性能评估时,只能分别得到导引头和导弹控制系统的抗干扰概率P<,g>、P<,c>及其置信区间,而难以求出导弹复杂系统的抗干扰概率在一定的置信度下的置信区间.针对该问题,提出用Bayes近似限的方法拟合导弹导引头、控制系统的整个串联系统的抗干扰概率的分布,得出该复杂系统的置信度为y的近似置信区间的求解公式,并给出导弹串联系统数字仿真中抗干扰概率的置信区间的求解实例,对该求解方法的正确性进行了验证.     

浅谈城市轨道交通工程施工中450t提运架设备架梁的应用

文章针对广珠城际轨道交通工程施工中450 t提运架设备箱梁架设施工方法、工艺及技术保证措施展开论述。     

护生实习出现护理差错的常见原因及防范措施

目的防范差错事故，为患者提供优质服务。方法对护理临床教学存在三个方面的问题和实习护生存在四个方面的问题，分析护生临床实习中护理差错常见原因，并提出防范措施。结果临床带教老师、护生法律意识淡薄是引起差错事故的主要原因。结论只有加强临床带教老师和护生的管理，加强医疗安全教育，提高法律意识，才能降低实习中差错的发生率。     

论产业竞争情报策略联盟

阐述了产业竞争情报策略联盟的概念,结合实际案例论述了策略联盟的实施措施,分析了产业竞争情报联盟的特点、实践形式及相关问题,对我国发展这一联盟模式提出了建设性意见。     

SWIFT伽玛暴的谱延迟距离指示器

早期研究发现,BASTE长暴的相对谱延迟RSL是一个有用的宇宙距离指示器。本文从SWIFT卫星数据中,挑选10个单脉冲长伽玛暴(T90>2.6)作为样本,对样本进行降噪和去除背景,用交叉相关函数分析1,3能道的谱延迟,通过拟合研究各脉冲参数Asymmetry,Fm,Fp,tm,FWHM,τ31和相对谱延迟的关系,发现相对谱延迟和红移具有很好的相关性,这充分表明SWIFT长暴的相对谱延迟仍然是一个很好的红移指示器。     

三维Franck-Condon因子的代数表示及其应用

基于多振动模混合下任意维Franck-Condon重叠积分封闭表示,推导出三维四振动模Franck-Condon重叠积分的解析表示式;凭借厄米多项式的求和形式,给出计算三维四振动模Franck-Condon因子的一般代数公式,且应用于研究甲醛分子光电子能谱的强度分布及振动结构.对于D2CO+(~A2B1)-D2CO(~X1A1)离子化过程,通过Franck-Condon因子计算,得到光电子能谱的谱线相对强度,理论上计算出光电子能谱图,且与实验光电子能谱符合的较好.     

大学生考试作弊行为探析及预防对策

大学生作弊现象越来越普遍,作弊的方式也越来越多样化,而考试是检验教学质量的重要标准,为了保证良好的教学秩序和教学质量,必须要预防大学生作弊。文章从学生作弊的内因和外因进行了分析,并提出解决大学生作弊问题的对策。