低电阻率PTCR热敏陶瓷材料的研制

采用草酸盐和铵盐溶液法制备ＰＴＣＲ热敏陶瓷的前驱体（Ｂａ＿ｘＳｒ＿（１－ｘ））ＴｉＯ＿３和（Ｂａ＿ｙＰｂ＿（１－ｙ））ＴｉＯ＿３，加入半导化剂Ｓｂ＿２Ｏ＿３、或Ｎｂ＿２Ｏ＿５，以及ＡＳＴ剂（Ａｌ＿２Ｏ＿３、ＳｉＯ＿２和ＴｉＯ＿２）等，研制成功低电阻率（ρ≈１０Ω．ｃｍ）　的ＰＴＣＲ热敏陶瓷产品。     

刑罚目的、刑事一体化与短期自由刑——价值基础与现实反思

短期自由刑的行刑效果一直遭受质疑。但事实上,报应、一般预防、特殊预防均是现代刑罚目的所在,刑罚运作的不同阶段各有侧重。这正是短期自由刑存在的价值基础。刑事一体化必须创造结构合理、机制顺畅的刑法实践,短期自由刑的构造与运作模式正与之契合。     

降水预测的模糊权马尔可夫模型及应用

中长期降水量的预测是气象科学的一个难点问题，论文首先基于降水过程存在大量不确定性、不精确性的特点，应用模糊有序聚类的方法建立降水丰桔状况的分级标准；然后针对降水量为相依随机变量的特点，采取以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重，用加权的马尔可夫链来预测未来降水的丰桔变化状况；在此基础上，根据模糊集理论中的级别特征值，计算出具体的降水量；最后以山西省河曲水文站近50年的降水资料为实例，对该方法进行了具体的应用，收到了较为满意的结果，从而为提高中长期降水量预报的精度提供了一条值得探索的途径。     

Combining multiple forecasts given multiple objectives

This paper is concerned with expanding the decision support capabilities of computerized forecasting systems. The expansion allows for the systematic combination of multiple forecasts and the explicit consideration of multiple objectives in the forecast selection process. The methodology used is multiple objective linear programming. Selecting an individual forecast based upon a single objective may not make the best use of available information for a variety of reasons. Combined forecasts may provide a better fit with respect to a single objective than any individual forecast. Even if an individual forecast does provide a good fit with respect to a single objective, a combined forecast may provide a better fit with respect to multiple objectives. An example is used to illustrate the expanded decision support system, its outputs and their properties.     

若尔盖地区湿地萎缩、草地退化沙化与北方沙尘干旱地区因果关系探索

分析若尔盖高原盆地的地质地貌、高原特有的热力学特性、流经此地的季风与控制北方干旱区的西风带的相互关系以及环境退化后下垫面改变引起的地空传递关系变化等因素；对近半个世纪以来若尔盖的降雨等气候条件与北方地区的干旱沙尘天气发生情况进行对比分析，发现北方地区的干旱风沙天气与若尔盖的降水频率存在很大程度上的相互关系。表明沙化中的若尔盖地区是一个潜在的沙源地，并有可能通过季风影响到我国北方主要干旱地区的干旱程度。在研究卫星图片、大量的气象资料的基础上，设计出了探索若尔盖地区与我国北方干旱沙尘地区关系研究的野外考查路线。并组成了多学科的联合研究小组展开了研究工作。     

The use of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP in the short run: an application to the G7 countries

The delayed release of the National Account data for GDP is an impediment to the early understanding of the economic situation. In the short run, this information gap may be at least partially eliminated by bridge models (BM) which exploit the information content of timely updated monthly indicators. In this paper we examine the forecasting ability of BM for GDP growth in the G7 countries and compare their performance to that of univariate and multivariate statistical benchmark models. We run four alternative one‐quarter‐ahead forecasting experiments to assess BM performance in situations as close as possible to the actual forecasting activity. BM are estimated for GDP both for single countries (USA, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy and Canada), and area‐wide (G7, European Union, and Euro area). BM forecasting ability is always superior to that of benchmark models, provided that at least some monthly indicator data are available over the forecasting horizon. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting the price of crude oil via convenience yield predictions

The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield, which can be derived from the cost‐of‐carry relationship. In a recursive out‐of‐sample analysis, forecast accuracy at horizons within one year is checked by the root mean squared error as well as the mean error and the frequency of a correct direction‐of‐change prediction. For all criteria employed, the proposed forecasting tool outperforms the approach of using futures prices as direct predictors of future spot prices. Vis‐à‐vis the random‐walk model, it does not significantly improve forecast accuracy but provides valuable statements on the direction of change. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

连续双向拍卖机制下的短期价格行为分析

建立描述限价指令市场中连续双向拍卖交易机制下短期价格动态变化的理论模型.通过对该机制下的几个特征变量包括最佳(高)买价、最佳(低)卖价、买卖价差、成交价格和成交概率的分析揭示连续双向拍卖机制下的短期价格行为,并着重探讨其均衡性质包括成交价格所收敛到的竞争均衡及达到均衡的时间.研究结果表明建立的理论模型能较好地刻画连续双向拍卖机制下短期价格的动态演进特征,进而印证连续双向拍卖交易机制能快速收敛到竞争均衡从而产生很高的价格发现效率的相关结论.     

夏季青藏高原与东亚及热带的降水廓线差异分析

利用热带测雨卫星上测雨雷达的探测结果,考察了青藏高原与东亚及热带地区降水廓线的异同.结果表明高原深厚弱对流降水为高原上最主要的降水类型,占降水总样本近90%,而对总降水量的贡献超过70%,其雨顶高度接近海拔13 km,最大降水率出现在近地面.高原与陆面(非高原地区)及洋面的降水廓线差异主要表现在:①高原上缺少陆面和洋面上的层云降水;②高原深厚对流降水云团在垂直方向上只有2层,难以从平均廓线中辨认深厚降水云团中的冰水混合层和冰晶过冷水层;③高原深厚强对流降水在垂直方向的厚度受到了"压缩",平均最大厚度约10 km,显著小于陆面及洋面地区的平均厚度;④高原深厚弱对流降水平均廓线斜率大于其他地区对流降水平均廓线斜率,表明8 km以上的降水率垂直变率大,由此将释放出更多的潜热,造成显著高于周边地区的对中高层大气的加热.     

Community Climate Model 3模拟夏季极端降水的初步分析

采用累积频率的统计方法和Community Climate Model 3(CCM3)模拟的10年逐日降水结果,分析了模拟的夏季极端降水事件的时空分布特征.结果表明,CCM3模拟的极端降水阈值的大值区主要在我国黄河和长江流域的上游、印度半岛及其邻近海域和孟加拉湾及其北部地区.CCM3能够模拟出我国长江流域极端降水量与极端降水日数显著增加的趋势.对极端降水平均强度、降水日数以及极端降水量与总降水量比值的经验正交函数(EOF)分析可知,我国大部分地区的极端降水基本呈现同相变化,且以长江和黄河中游地区较为显著.CCM3模式基本能够模拟出观测到的极端降水阈值与总降水、极端降水日数及其距平的高空间相关性.