变截面悬臂空心圆柱的冲击动力特性

变截面悬臂空心柱是一类在工程中有着广泛应用的特殊结构。为了研究其在冲击荷载作用下的动力特性,通过准静态极限分析与冲击动力学理论,对其在等厚度与变厚度两种情形下的冲击响应展开研究。定义了荷载位置参数与塑性铰位置参数,并根据荷载位置参数给出了塑性铰位置的判定条件。利用动量定理与动量矩定理推导了悬臂端加速度的表达式以及塑性铰位置参数的控制方程。根据分布惯性力与剪力的微分关系以及剪力与弯矩的微分关系分别推导了剪力和弯矩的表达式;分析了荷载位置参数对塑性铰位置参数与悬臂端加速度的影响,以及塑性铰位置参数对悬臂端加速度的影响。算例结果表明：悬臂端加速度与塑性铰位置参数的本文解与数值解吻合良好;塑性铰位置参数随荷载位置参数的增大而增大,且二者关系几乎呈线性;悬臂端加速度随荷载位置参数、塑性铰位置参数的增大而减小。可见当冲击荷载明显超过固定端的静态极限荷载,且荷载位置参数小于临界荷载位置参数时,变截面悬壁空心柱将在柱中产生塑性铰。因此,出于结构可靠性考虑,工程中应对此类问题予以重视。     

基于D*算法的场面滑行动态规划研究

研究了机场场面滑行路径动态规划问题.基于三种滑行冲突约束,建立了使航班总体滑行时间最短的动态优化模型.改进了传统的D*算法,提出了基于时间权值的冲突预测和代价修正函数.案例计算相比Dijkstra算法得到的结果减少了203s,有效减少总滑行时间,提高场面运行效率.该算法不仅可以用于滑行路径的初始规划,也适用于场面实时滑行引导的实施.     

能源需求的支持向量机预测

对灰色、神经网络和支持向量机的三个预测模型进行了研究,以某城市的1999-2006年能源需求为例,对能源需求进行了预测.经过比较,支持向量机的预测方法精度较高.     

钢框架结构抗震性能分析

对单榀单跨钢框架结构单元在不同地震波、不同地震加速度作用下的抗震性能进行了有限元对比分析.结果表明,对于同一种地震波,随着输入波加速度的提高,顶点位移增大;钢框架在不同地震波作用下滞回性能良好,表明钢框架结构具有良好的抗震性能.     

1000t起重船扒杆结构强度有限元分析

采用MSC/Nastran对扒杆结构在4种工况下的强度进行了有限元分析,介绍了有限元模型建模方式、计算工况以及许用应力的计算,并对计算结果进行了分析.结果表明扒杆结构各主要构件强度均满足规范要求,并可作为改进设计的参考.     

灰色预测模型的改进

用提高原始数据列光滑度的方法来提高GM模型的精度,从而改进灰色模型,并从理论上证明了该方法比对数函数变换、开方变换、对效函数开方的复合变换、指数函数及指数函数开方的复合变换等已有提高光滑度的方法更有效,笔者提出的“幂函数一指数函数”复合变换很大程度上提高了灰色模型的预测精度,使许多原本不能用灰色模型预测的问题得到解决。     

基于LSTM神经网络的短期轨道预报

针对基于动力学模型的轨道预报方法对卫星自主轨道预报与大量非合作目标轨道预报中存在建模成本过高和缺少目标空间环境信息的问题,提出一种基于误差数据驱动的神经网络轨道预报方法.该方法在解析法动力学模型的基础上,使用长短期记忆神经网络对历史轨道预报的误差进行学习,预测未来短期动力学模型的预报误差,以此对预报结果进行修正.选用A...     

Evaluating volatility and interval forecasts

A widely used approach to evaluating volatility forecasts uses a regression framework which measures the bias and variance of the forecast. We show that the associated test for bias is inappropriate before introducing a more suitable procedure which is based on the test for bias in a conditional mean forecast. Although volatility has been the most common measure of the variability in a financial time series, in many situations confidence interval forecasts are required. We consider the evaluation of interval forecasts and present a regression‐based procedure which uses quantile regression to assess quantile estimator bias and variance. We use exchange rate data to illustrate the proposal by evaluating seven quantile estimators, one of which is a new non‐parametric autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity quantile estimator. The empirical analysis shows that the new evaluation procedure provides useful insight into the quality of quantile estimators. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance of GARCH models in forecasting stock market volatility

This paper studies the performance of GARCH model and its modifications, using the rate of returns from the daily stock market indices of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) including Composite Index, Tins Index, Plantations Index, Properties Index, and Finance Index. The models are stationary GARCH, unconstrained GARCH, non‐negative GARCH, GARCH‐M, exponential GARCH and integrated GARCH. The parameters of these models and variance processes are estimated jointly using the maximum likelihood method. The performance of the within‐sample estimation is diagnosed using several goodness‐of‐fit statistics. We observed that, among the models, even though exponential GARCH is not the best model in the goodness‐of‐fit statistics, it performs best in describing the often‐observed skewness in stock market indices and in out‐of‐sample (one‐step‐ahead) forecasting. The integrated GARCH, on the other hand, is the poorest model in both respects. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An intelligent business forecaster for strategic business planning

In this paper an intelligent business forecaster for strategic business planning is presented. The forecaster is basically a multi‐layered fuzzy rule‐based neural network which integrates the basic elements and functions of a traditional fuzzy logic inference into a neural network structure. It has also been shown to be superior to two commercially available business forecasters in terms of learning speed and forecasting accuracy. This paper presents the architectural design of the intelligent business forecaster and the results of a study that has been carried out to compare its performance with that of the others. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.