预应力混凝土曲线梁的静力计算

按等代荷载法将空间预应力等效为竖向荷载和径向荷载,利用能量变分原理,推导出曲线梁竖向和径向的基本微分方程、边界条件,并求得相应的闭合解。通过算例比较,结果吻合较好。分析了中心角、曲率变化对曲线梁的内力影响,得到有益的结论。     

基于过程神经网络的短期负荷预测

针对目前常用方法在解决负荷预测问题时,结果往往难以达到工程要求精度的现状,利用过程神经网络输入为时间函数以及预测精度高的特点,建立了基于过程神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测模型;给出了模型的结构,基于函数正交基展开的离散数据拟合方法以及模型的学习算法.针对东北某地区电网的日负荷数据,进行了模型训练和负荷预测正确性的研究.结果表明,所建立的预测模型对负荷的预测准确率高,优于BP神经网络负荷预测模型的预测结果.     

Forecasting economic indicators using a consumer sentiment index: Survey‐based versus text‐based data

Given the confirmed effectiveness of the survey‐based consumer sentiment index (CSI) as a leading indicator of real economic conditions, the CSI is actively used in making policy judgments and decisions in many countries. However, although the CSI offers qualitative information for presenting current conditions and predicting a household's future economic activity, the survey‐based method has several limitations. In this context, we extracted sentiment information from online economic news articles and demonstrated that the Korean cases are a good illustration of applying a text mining technique when generating a CSI using sentiment analysis. By applying a simple sentiment analysis based on the lexicon approach, this paper confirmed that news articles can be an effective source for generating an economic indicator in Korea. Even though cross‐national comparative research results are suited better than national‐level data to generalize and verify the method used in this study, international comparisons are quite challenging to draw due to the necessary linguistic preprocessing. We hope to encourage further cross‐national comparative research to apply the approach proposed in this study.     

Enhancing survey‐based investment forecasts

We investigate the accuracy of capital investment predictors from a national business survey of South African manufacturing. Based on data available to correspondents at the time of survey completion, we propose variables that might inform the confidence that can be attached to their predictions. Having calibrated the survey predictors' directional accuracy, we model the probability of a correct directional prediction using logistic regression with the proposed variables. For point forecasting, we compare the accuracy of rescaled survey forecasts with time series benchmarks and some survey/time series hybrid models. In addition, using the same set of variables, we model the magnitude of survey prediction errors. Directional forecast tests showed that three out of four survey predictors have value but are biased and inefficient. For shorter horizons we found that survey forecasts, enhanced by time series data, significantly improved point forecasting accuracy. For longer horizons the survey predictors were at least as accurate as alternatives. The usefulness of the more accurate of the predictors examined is enhanced by auxiliary information, namely the probability of directional accuracy and the estimated error magnitude.     

电力系统优化控制中运行时段的最优划分

研究了用于电力系统短期优化控制的日负荷曲线最优划分的方差最小化数学模型,提出了采用Hooke-Jeeves直接优化法的寻优策略.最优时段划分为电力系统经济运行与控制的实用化提供了基础.算例计算结果证明了所提最优划分模型及算法的有效性.     

具有感载比例阀的轻型客车制动系统分析及实验验证

文章建立了具有感载比例阀的轻型客车制动系统分析模型,对轻型客车制动系统的制动性能、制动踏板力、制动稳定性及其前后制动力的匹配进行了详细地分析;以HFC6500A1轻型客车为例进行了理论计算和实验验证。理论计算和实验结果基本吻合,证明了所建模型的正确性。     

土钉瞬态应力动力特性对比研究

基于探索性的洞室土钉支护试验,概述了洞室土钉支护抗动载试验的基本情况,并给出了洞室拱顶土钉的测试数据。依照实验现象,考察对比了毛洞段与土钉支护构措段的瞬态应变和炸药药量的关系,及其两者的瞬态应变和加载次数的关系,构措段具有较好的降低应变的能力。依照一维粘弹性理论对拱顶土钉进行了Maxwell模型的参数拟合;并用此模型确定了土钉用建筑钢的动力粘性因数,其与前拟合公式者相近。     

预应力水冲桩抗裂性能研究分析

某码头工程下部结构采用预应力水冲锤击桩,试桩过程中发现,在贯入度较大的情况下桩身多处产生横向裂缝,使桩尖无法达到设计标高。为分析产生裂缝原因,通过静荷载试验的方法检验桩身的抗裂性能;结果表明张拉控制应力未达到设计值,是导致桩身产生环向裂缝的主要原因;提出适当调整预应力,能够有效地解决预应力水冲桩桩身裂缝的问题。     

剪切荷载对裂隙渗透性影响研究现状

综述了剪切荷载对裂隙岩体渗流特性影响的研究现状,认为:目前这方面的研究主要采用室内试验和数值模拟2种方法.室内试验方法可以准确地得到剪应力和裂隙渗透系数的关系,但对试验仪器精度的要求比较高,试样的制作比较复杂,试验的可重复性差;数值模拟方法能够定性地模拟出剪应力对裂隙渗透性的影响,但裂隙的宽度、走向、密度和长度等参数较难确定.总结了剪切过程中裂隙岩体渗透系数的变化规律,即:剪胀发生前,裂隙渗透系数随剪切位移的增加而减小;剪胀发生后,裂隙渗透系数随剪切位移的增加急剧增大,达到峰值位移后裂隙渗透系数趋于稳定甚至会减小.指出了需要进一步研究的问题:剪切荷载作用下裂隙变形和破坏规律;不同法向荷载作用下剪切荷载对裂隙渗透性的影响;裂隙岩体本构关系;等等.     

基于递推最小二乘改进算法的洪水预报模型研究

由递推最小二乘算法估算出的自回归系数在一定条件下具有最佳的统计特性,但在实际应用中,这种方法往往难以动态地把握水文现象的动态特性.为提高自回归洪水预报模型的精度,分别用衰减记忆、有限记忆及2种算法相结合的方法对基本的递推最小二乘算法进行改进,并利用这几种改进算法对白马寺水文站的实测径流序列进行了模拟演算.结果表明,这3种改进的递推最小二乘算法,都可以使自回归洪水预报模型取得较好的预报效果,但实际应用时应根据不同预报的侧重点选择相应的算法.