孪生组合恒等式(十七)——Fibonacci幂级数与Lucas幂级数类型

笔者提出一对孪生幂级数,即Fibonacci幂级数∑∞n=0fnkxn与Lucas幂级数∑∞n=0lnkxn,这里fn为Fibonacci数,ln为Lucas数,k为正整数.它们有相同的收敛区间,应用代入法求出它们的级数和,从而获得孪生组合恒等式.此外,证明孪生数集{fnk}与{lnk}有相同的递推关系式.     

Enhancing survey‐based investment forecasts

We investigate the accuracy of capital investment predictors from a national business survey of South African manufacturing. Based on data available to correspondents at the time of survey completion, we propose variables that might inform the confidence that can be attached to their predictions. Having calibrated the survey predictors' directional accuracy, we model the probability of a correct directional prediction using logistic regression with the proposed variables. For point forecasting, we compare the accuracy of rescaled survey forecasts with time series benchmarks and some survey/time series hybrid models. In addition, using the same set of variables, we model the magnitude of survey prediction errors. Directional forecast tests showed that three out of four survey predictors have value but are biased and inefficient. For shorter horizons we found that survey forecasts, enhanced by time series data, significantly improved point forecasting accuracy. For longer horizons the survey predictors were at least as accurate as alternatives. The usefulness of the more accurate of the predictors examined is enhanced by auxiliary information, namely the probability of directional accuracy and the estimated error magnitude.     

一种解决混联系统组合爆炸问题的贝叶斯网络

针对传统三层节点贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network,BN)在系统可靠性分析中的组合爆炸问题,提出了一种适用于复杂混联系统的级联BN建模方法.首先,在引入s类(f类)节点基础上建立了描述并联(串联)逻辑的信息通路模型,进而通过为通路模型各节点赋予同逻辑的条件概率参数,提出了构建并联(串联)系统等价级联BN的方法;其次,结合"超级方框"的概念分析了将典型串并联、并串联系统转化为等价级联BN的方法,并基于系统可靠性框图(RBD)相关矩阵,设计了将复杂混联系统转化为等价级联BN的算法-Generate-Chain-BN;最后,分别建立了某混联系统RBD的等价三层节点BN和级联BN模型,对两种BN进行了对比计算.理论和实例分析均表明,本文建立的级联BN可将原三层节点BN的空间和时间复杂性由指数级降到线性级,解决了三层节点BN固有的组合爆炸问题,可成为复杂混联系统可靠性分析的有效手段.     

环的弱正则性

首先引入弱正则理想的概念,得到了弱正则理想的一些性质,接着讨论了半群环的弱正则性.     

Type-A半群的表示

给出了Type-A半群的表示,将文献[1]中著名的Vagner表示定理推广到Abandant半群中.证明了如果S是一个半群,则存在一个集合X及S到PJ(X)的单同态.     

简单管水力系统水击的级数解析解

针对简单水力系统的基本方程,考虑阀门按线性关闭历时规律的初始条件和边界条件,利用该偏微分方程组的形式解,推导出时间关于系统末端水击的一阶线性微分方程,从而求解了系统末端水击的隐式解析解.进一步从数学上将水击分解成均具有级数解的两部分,利用三角级数展开的方法分别求解其级数解,最后给出了水击级数解析解的表达式.     

范尔概周期函数

利用三角多项式给出范尔概周期函数新形式的定义,并证明两个定义方式的等价性。通过新形式的定义研究范尔概周期函数的傅立叶级数和帕塞瓦尔等式。     

包含Lucas序列的无穷级数和

利用一些函数的Fourier级数展开式求出了包含Lucas序列的若干无穷级数和.     

Fibonacci型数列及其性质

利用Fibonacci数和Lucas数的基本性质构造了一类Fibonacci型数列,并对它的生成函数及有关性质进行研究,得到了一些结果.     

Short‐term salmon price forecasting

This study establishes a benchmark for short‐term salmon price forecasting. The weekly spot price of Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon is predicted 1–5 weeks ahead using data from 2007 to 2014. Sixteen alternative forecasting methods are considered, ranging from classical time series models to customized machine learning techniques to salmon futures prices. The best predictions are delivered by k‐nearest neighbors method for 1 week ahead; vector error correction model estimated using elastic net regularization for 2 and 3 weeks ahead; and futures prices for 4 and 5 weeks ahead. While the nominal gains in forecast accuracy over a naïve benchmark are small, the economic value of the forecasts is considerable. Using a simple trading strategy for timing the sales based on price forecasts could increase the net profit of a salmon farmer by around 7%.