Judging the probability that the next point in an observed time-series will be below,or above,a given value

We presented people with trended and untrended time series and asked them to estimate the probability that the next point would be below each of seven different reference values. The true probabilities that the point would be below these values were 0.01, 0.10, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 0.90 and 0.99. People overestimated probabilities of less than 0.50 and underestimated those of more than 0.50. Consequently, their subjective probability distributions were flatter than they should have been: people appeared to be under confident in their estimates of where the next point would lie. This bias was greater for the trended series. It was also greater in a second experiment in which people estimated the probability that the next item would be above the reference values. We discuss reasons for these effects and consider their implications for decision making.     

一个概率问题的级数解法

文中提出的概率问题，如果单凭概率论本身的知识很难解决，本文借助高等数学中的几何级数巧解这个概率问题，因而显得独特新颖。     

时间序列的谱分析法在叉车振动分析中的应用

本文用时间序列分析理论对叉车的振动进行了分析，提出了结构修改方案．对结构修改后的叉车进行测量，证明性能有所改善．     

Analyses of plasma reactive sputter deposition of CNx films by OES

Conclusion Adding Ar to the sputtering gas N₂ had influence upon the species distribution in the gas phase. Our experimental results suggest that the N-to-C ratio is not sensitive to the local binding states of elements in the CN_x films. In order to increase the percentage of one of desired bonding structures in the film it is relatively limited by means of optimizing the discharge parameters such as the voltage of graphite target and flow ratio of sputtering gases. Other methods such as physical and/or chemical treatments of deposition surface may be effective. As reported work shows, increasing temperature of substrate is useful to decomposition of parayanogen structure^[2] or impact of ions on deposition surface to formsp ³ bond structurer^[1]. It is believed that finding new methods of deposition surface treatments is worth further considering if we hope to deposit and increase one of desired percentage ofbond structure in the films.     

大系统递阶控制问题求解

利用Ｔａｙｌｏｒ级数性质将大系统递阶控制问题转化为代数方程的求解问题，并以算例表明了方法的有效性．     

随机转移矩阵与双无限环境中马氏链的构造及互通性

利用随机环境中的转移矩阵,解决了双无限环境中马氏链的构造问题,引入了互通和强互通概念,并在平稳环境的条件下,研究了互通和强互通的关系。     

轻子与夸克的复合自由度模型

本文提出了一个关于轻子与夸克的复合自由度模型,认为描述其内部自由度的群是SO_3SU_2SU_2~ASU_2~BSU_2~C。在此基础上对轻子与夸克进行了满意的分类。并利用复合对称性,除能得到SU_3~CSU_2U_1标准模型的结果外,还预言了三种超弱规范场的存在,而且这种超弱规范场的相互作用具有C～P破坏效应。     

基于序列LP的不等式组的解法及Matlab软件实现

给出了一个求解线性不等式组的序列LP方法，且当不等式组矛盾时，可找出不相容的不等式．文中阐述了序列LP的构造以及应用Madab软件予以实现的实例，     

N个不同部件串联而成的M/G/1可修排队系统

考虑服务台由N个不同部件串联而成的M/G/1可修排队系统,其中服务台正常当且仅当N个部件都正常.在假定每个部件的寿命服从指数分布,而故障部件的修理时间服从一般分布下,通过引入服务台的"广义忙期",提出了分析服务台有关可靠性指标的一种新方法,用该方法更加简洁的讨论了服务台的许多感性趣的可靠性指标,得到了一些重要的可靠性结果,推广了已有的结论.     

宏观串联经济系统的次优策略问题研究

本文扼要分析了宏观串联经济系统的控制策略,提出了国家经济增长——物价指数系统的问题,在建模基础上,得到了该问题的次优策略。文章认为,农轻重以0.045,0.087,0.084速度增长,国民收入积累资金以0.05速度增长,80年代中期之后,物价指数增长在0.01以内,国家完全可以达到本世末的经济目标。