随机和认知混合不确定系统的全局灵敏度分析方法

为计算具有随机不确定性和认知不确定性的混合不确定系统灵敏度,提出一种基于证据理论和条件概率理论的全局灵敏度分析方法.用证据理论对认知不确定性变量进行表征,并提出两种基于证据理论的随机采样方法,包括一次随机抽样法和二次随机抽样法.运用条件概率理论,提出存在认知不确定性条件下混合不确定系统的Sobol'全局灵敏度指标,经过理论推导给出一阶灵敏度及总灵敏度的计算公式,并设置单循环的拟蒙特卡罗方法实现灵敏度的近似数值计算.开发了灵敏度分析程序,并给出了典型应用实例.实例表明,新方法的分析结果正确,计算工作量可控.     

Dark matter,the Equivalence Principle and modified gravity

Dark matter (DM) is an essential ingredient of the present Standard Cosmological Model, according to which only 5% of the mass/energy content of our universe is made of ordinary matter. In recent times, it has been argued that certain cases of gravitational lensing represent a new type of evidence for the existence of DM. In a recent paper, Peter Kosso attempts to substantiate that claim. His argument is that, although in such cases DM is only detected by its gravitational effects, gravitational lensing is a direct consequence of Einstein's Equivalence Principle (EEP) and therefore the complete gravitational theory is not needed in order to derive such lensing effects. In this paper I critically examine Kosso's argument: I confront the notion of empirical evidence involved in the discussion and argue that EEP does not have enough power by itself to sustain the claim that gravitational lensing in the Bullet Cluster constitutes evidence for the DM Hypothesis. As a consequence of this, it is necessary to examine the details of alternative theories of gravity to decide whether certain empirical situations are indeed evidence for the existence of DM. It may well be correct that gravitational lensing does constitute evidence for the DM Hypothesis—at present it is controversial whether the proposed modifications of gravitation all need DM to account for the phenomenon of gravitational lensing and if so, of which kind—but this will not be a direct consequence of EEP.     

基于粗糙集和证据理论的决策规则提取

提出一种基于粗糙集和证据理论的两阶段决策规则提取算法, 该算法首先利用粗糙集中属性缩减的思想, 找出每条规则中的重要条件属性集合, 然后再基于证据理论中证据结合的思想进一步去掉重要条件属性集中的冗余条件属性, 从而得到最终的决策规则. 所给算法简化了属性集的约简, 对高维数据也是可行的. 实验结果表明, 利用该算法能够挖掘出高质量的决策规则.     

On the empirical equivalence between special relativity and Lorentz׳s ether theory

In this paper I argue that the case of Einstein׳s special relativity vs. Hendrik Lorentz׳s ether theory can be decided in terms of empirical evidence, in spite of the predictive equivalence between the theories. In the historical and philosophical literature this case has been typically addressed focusing on non-empirical features (non-empirical virtues in special relativity and/or non-empirical flaws in the ether theory). I claim that non-empirical features are not enough to provide a fully objective and uniquely determined choice in instances of empirical equivalence. However, I argue that if we consider arguments proposed by Richard Boyd, and by Larry Laudan and Jarret Leplin, a choice based on non-entailed empirical evidence favoring Einstein׳s theory can be made.     

Decision fusion recognition based on modified evidence rule

A modified evidence combination rule with a combination parameter λ is proposed to solve some problems in D-S theory by considering the correlation and complement among the evidences as well as the size and intersection of subsets in evidence. It can get reasonable results even the evidences are conflicting. Applying this rule to the real infrared/millimetre wave fusion system, a satisfactory result has been obtained.     

西部中心城市可持续发展的评价--以西宁市为例

运用可持续发展的有关理论，建立了城市可持续发展的评价指标体系，选择了评价方法及模型．应用主客观综合集成赋权法对西宁市1995—2002年的可持续发展状况进行了纵向评价，揭示了制约因素并提出了相关对策．认为发展经济(并注重经济增长的质量)以增强经济实力，为可持续发展打下坚实的经济基础，是西部中心城市可持续发展的首要任务．     

基于D-S证据理论的多源遥感图像目标数据联合关联算法

以遥感图像目标识别结果为主,结合卡尔曼滤波器获得的目标运动状态估计结果,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的目标数据联合关联算法.蒙特卡罗模拟实验结果表明,该方法稳定性较强,适合于对海上船舶等遥感图像目标的持续跟踪.     

基于D-S证据推理的车辆导航系统地图匹配算法

研究地图匹配算法中的匹配道路的选择问题,提出基于D-S证据推理理论的地图匹配算法.根据D-S证据推理的基本原理,结合车辆行驶情况,给出当前时刻车辆位置信息和方向信息的基本概率分布函数的设计方法.按照D-S合成公式,对位置和方向信息进行融合,并根据融合结果选择匹配道路.在设计方法中,引入位置信息和方向信息的可靠性参数.仿真结果表明,该方法是行之有效的,通过适当地调整可靠性参数的值,就能识别出车辆所在的道路.     

宋代文献与《汉语大词典》书证匡补

《汉语大词典》是集古今汉语语词之大成的词典，为学术的发展提供了很大的方便。但美中不足的是词语的溯源失误太多，而在宋代文献方面尤其严重。笔者谨就平时读书所及展列部分材料如次，以引起使用《汉大》者注意，且为《汉大》的修订略作贡献。     

两种新的DS合成法则仿真近似算法

DS合成法则计算时间复杂度是影响DS理论广泛应用的主要原因之一,介绍了几种著名的近似算法,并分析了它们的优劣性,指出了这些方法的存在的问题。给出了两种新的仿真近似算法,这两种新方法不需要预先限定焦元的个数,计算过程直观、方便,结果合理。仿真试验结果表明,这两种方法的计算结果和Bayesian方法非常接近,但不存在Bayesian方法的不合理之处。对几种算法作了进一步分析研究,给出了三种算法间的关系。