浅谈高校图书馆编目业务外包的实施

随着网络信息技术的快速发展,高校图书馆编目作业方式发生了根本改变。从编目外包的概念及发展状况出发,分析了高校图书馆实施编目外包的动因、优势及风险,提出了成功实施高校图书馆编目外包的策略。     

浅析中国零售业针对外国零售业的竞争策略

加入WTO后,我国零售业面临着更大的困难和挑战。阐述了中国零售业的现状及问题,分析了外国零售业在我国的发展现状及竞争策略,针对中国零售业遭遇强敌挑战和冲击,提出了我国零售业应该采取的竞争措施。     

面向过程再造的企业战略模拟系统研究

依据博弈论的思路并借助于人工神经网络的机理设计并实现了一个面向过程再造的企业战略模拟系统,该系统既为企业的战略制定与实施初步提供了一种无代价的实验手段,又验证了有关企业过程再造的主要理论假设,弥补了其实证研究的不足.并在一家企业得到了应用.     

Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle

Four methods of model selection—equally weighted forecasts, Bayesian model‐averaged forecasts, and two models produced by the machine‐learning algorithm boosting—are applied to the problem of predicting business cycle turning points with a set of common macroeconomic variables. The methods address a fundamental problem faced by forecasters: the most useful model is simple but makes use of all relevant indicators. The results indicate that successful models of recession condition on different economic indicators at different forecast horizons. Predictors that describe real economic activity provide the clearest signal of recession at very short horizons. In contrast, signals from housing and financial markets produce the best forecasts at longer forecast horizons. A real‐time forecast experiment explores the predictability of the 2001 and 2007 recessions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

数据挖掘技术在零售业中的应用

利用数据挖掘(DM)技术,从零售业的各种应用系统中采集数据,经条件分类,放到数据仓库里,进行数据多维度加工,最终透过数据找出人与物间的规律,从而更好地为客户提供服务.最后还谈到了数据挖掘在零售业中应用的广阔前景.     

商业模式创新分析——基于外部利益相关者视角

商业模式构成企业逻辑框架,同时也动态影响企业的整个运营流程,外部利益相关者作为情境变量,对商业模式价值的形成与创新有重要的影响作用。本研究将企业看作整体,通过分析政府机构、公众&社区、竞争性企业、互补性企业、供应商、消费者对企业的价值导向作用,并结合企业特征构建新的分析框架,从不同维度视角探索各类型企业在商业模式创新与外部利益相关者之间的作用关键点,为相关研究提供新的基础性研究框架。     

Enhancing survey‐based investment forecasts

We investigate the accuracy of capital investment predictors from a national business survey of South African manufacturing. Based on data available to correspondents at the time of survey completion, we propose variables that might inform the confidence that can be attached to their predictions. Having calibrated the survey predictors' directional accuracy, we model the probability of a correct directional prediction using logistic regression with the proposed variables. For point forecasting, we compare the accuracy of rescaled survey forecasts with time series benchmarks and some survey/time series hybrid models. In addition, using the same set of variables, we model the magnitude of survey prediction errors. Directional forecast tests showed that three out of four survey predictors have value but are biased and inefficient. For shorter horizons we found that survey forecasts, enhanced by time series data, significantly improved point forecasting accuracy. For longer horizons the survey predictors were at least as accurate as alternatives. The usefulness of the more accurate of the predictors examined is enhanced by auxiliary information, namely the probability of directional accuracy and the estimated error magnitude.     

Forecasting key US macroeconomic variables with a factor‐augmented Qual VAR

In this paper, we first extract factors from a monthly dataset of 130 macroeconomic and financial variables. These extracted factors are then used to construct a factor‐augmented qualitative vector autoregressive (FA‐Qual VAR) model to forecast industrial production growth, inflation, the Federal funds rate, and the term spread based on a pseudo out‐of‐sample recursive forecasting exercise over an out‐of‐sample period of 1980:1 to 2014:12, using an in‐sample period of 1960:1 to 1979:12. Short‐, medium‐, and long‐run horizons of 1, 6, 12, and 24 months ahead are considered. The forecast from the FA‐Qual VAR is compared with that of a standard VAR model, a Qual VAR model, and a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR). In general, we observe that the FA‐Qual VAR tends to perform significantly better than the VAR, Qual VAR and FAVAR (barring some exceptions relative to the latter). In addition, we find that the Qual VARs are also well equipped in forecasting probability of recessions when compared to probit models.     

通信公司社区综合业务管理系统的设计与实现

主要是利用VPN技术进行计算机网络组建.独立开发针对通信企业业务管理软件,来解决通信公司的社区业务管理.即用户装、移电话,112电话障碍、数据业务等,以解决《电信服务网》与《10060客户业务受理系统》相互独立所造成的业务脱节,提升企业管理水平.     

业务过程重组若干问题之探讨

业务过程重组是创造性地应用信息技术,以业务过程为导向,调整企业的各种业务流、组织结构,进行企业组织管理的全面创新．本文就业务过程重组的内涵、认识误区、与信息技术的关系和实施中的问题与发展前景进行探讨