The role of macroeconometric models in forecasting and policy analysis in the united states

This article stresses how little is known about the quality, particularly the relative quality, of macroeconometric models. Most economists make a strict distinction between the quality of a model per se and the accuracy of solutions based on that model. While this distinction is valid, it leaves unanswered how to compare the‘validity’of conditional models. The standard test, the accuracy of ex post simulations, is not definitive when models with differing degrees of exogeneity are compared. In addition, it is extremely difficult to estimate the relative quantitative importance of conceptual problems of models, such as parameter instability across‘policy regimes’ In light of the difficulty in comparisons of conditional macroeconometric models, many model-builders and users assume that the best models are those that have been used to make the most accurate forecasts are those made with the best models. Forecasting experience indicates that forecasters using macroeconometric models have produced more accurate macroeconomic forecasts than either naive or sophisticated unconditional statistical models. It also suggests that judgementally adjusted forecasts have been more accurate than model-based forecasts generated mechanically. The influence of econometrically-based forecasts is now so pervasive that it is difficult to find examples of‘purely judgemental’forecasts.     

水分对头孢唑林钠药效的影响初探

用平衡湿度法测定了头孢唑林钠的临界相对湿度，在２０℃时约为６７％。同时，通过破坏性实验考察了水分对其药效的影响，初步结果表明，水分每增加１％，效价降低约０．５％。据此，提出了分装操作的若干注意事项。     

先验难度及其计算方法

本给出了先验难度值的定义及其性质，同时提出了一种计算先验难度值的方法。     

提高沥青混合料压实标准的分析

我国很多高速公路大量发生水损坏等早期病害,这与我国沥青路面施工规范规定的压实度标准偏低有直接的关系,通过分析,建议适应提高压实度标准,增加控制指标,以提高路面的使用寿命,满足高速公路建设的客观需要。     

从合助助词再论古汉语语气助词的功能

在语气助词合用之传统研究的基础上 ,进一步考察传信助词合用、传疑助词合用以及传信、传疑、传叹三者合用的不同情况 ,提出古汉语语气助词严格地遵循合用的三条原则 :传信助词合用是由弱至强的连锁排列 ;非同型语气助词合用是由易至难的排列 ;处于同一层面的语气助词不能合用。     

烯胺酰化／缩合-锅法构建5，6，7，8-四氢吡啶[4，3-d]嘧啶核心结构及其在5HT2A受体拮抗剂合成上的应用

报道了1条5HT2A受体拮抗剂的高选择性合成路线．烯胺酰化／缩合-锅法可用于有效构建5,6,7,8-四氢吡啶[4,3-明嘧啶核心结构,其中哌啶催化剂的使用对于这一新方法至关重要．     

中强地震预报综合评判物元模型及其应用

应用可拓方法,对一个固定地区某一时段建立了预报地震最大震级的多指标综合评判模型。初步结果说明该方法在中强地震预报中有较好的应用前景。     

绝对关联度及其应用

给出关联空间及其绝对关联度的概念,在此基础上,提出一种保持平移变换不变的绝对关联度计算公式。最后给出一个算例     

土地利用现状的灰色聚类分析研究

为了对土地进行定量、定位配置和适宜度评价,本文采用灰色系统理论中的关联度和模糊数学中的聚类分析相结合而形成的灰色聚类分析方法对土地的集约化程度和利用效益进行了研究,得出了土地利用效益与集约化程度成正相关的结论。     

基于改进灰色关联分析的仿真模型验证方法

为客观有效地进行仿真模型验证,降低灰色关联分析应用于模型验证的风险,构建了改进的灰色关联分析模型。分析了当前基于灰色关联分析的模型验证所存在的问题,针对仿真模型验证的特殊需要,综合考虑仿真模型输出和实际系统输出时间序列之间的相近性和相似性,提出了改进的灰色关联度模型,并证明了改进模型满足灰色关联四公理。最后通过实例的分析与比较验证了该模型的合理性和有效性。