加氢焦化汽油中正、异构烃的吸附分离及优化利用

采用5A分子筛吸附分离加氢焦化汽油中的正、异构烃。以正构烃为优质乙烯裂解原料,非正构烃为优质催化重整原料或高辛烷值汽油调和组分,考察了正构烃的吸附曲线。结果表明:与加氢焦化汽油相比,正构烃在相同的工艺条件下可使乙烯收率提高11%,吸余油的芳烃潜含量提高14%。模拟计算结果表明:吸余油的研究法辛烷值提高约30个单位,可作为高辛烷值汽油调和组分,该分子管理的工艺路线可显著提高加氢焦化汽油的利用效率。     

水泥混凝土路面板底脱空的原因及防治措施

根据水泥混凝土路面破坏情况的调查,分析了混凝土路面产生板底脱空现象的原因及其防治措施,对预防早期破坏,延长水泥混凝土路面的使用寿命具有指导意义.     

稀浆封层路面层间黏结性能试验研究

为了对稀浆封层层间黏结性能进行评价,自行设计了以改进的剪切仪为基础的试验方法,能较好地模拟路面真实受力情况.试验结果说明,随着温度的升高,稀浆封层与沥青碎石下面层之间黏结强度在减小;不同的路面层间处理措施对黏结强度均有明显的影响;采用较大公称粒径的沥青混合料,或者对路面做凿毛处理均可以有效提高层间黏结强度.     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

Forecasting VaR models under Different Volatility Processes and Distributions of Return Innovations

This paper provides clear‐cut evidence that the out‐of‐sample VaR (value‐at‐risk) forecasting performance of alternative parametric volatility models, like EGARCH (exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) or GARCH, and Markov regime‐switching models, can be considerably improved if they are combined with skewed distributions of asset return innovations. The performance of these models is found to be similar to that of the EVT (extreme value theory) approach. The performance of the latter approach can also be improved if asset return innovations are assumed to be skewed distributed. The performance of the Markov regime‐switching model is considerably improved if this model allows for EGARCH effects, for all different volatility regimes considered. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

员工隐私泄漏途径、危害及保护对策

针对员工在应聘、聘用以及解聘后都有可能面临各种隐私泄漏问题,总结目前员工隐私泄露的各种途径,以及隐私泄露对员工和企业所带来的危害,并参考国内外该领域知名学者之前的研究,从四个角度提出员工隐私保护对策.     

基于Bayes近似限法的串联系统置信区间的求解

运用基于Bayes的方法对红外空空导弹进行抗干扰性能评估时,只能分别得到导引头和导弹控制系统的抗干扰概率P<,g>、P<,c>及其置信区间,而难以求出导弹复杂系统的抗干扰概率在一定的置信度下的置信区间.针对该问题,提出用Bayes近似限的方法拟合导弹导引头、控制系统的整个串联系统的抗干扰概率的分布,得出该复杂系统的置信度为y的近似置信区间的求解公式,并给出导弹串联系统数字仿真中抗干扰概率的置信区间的求解实例,对该求解方法的正确性进行了验证.     

浅谈城市轨道交通工程施工中450t提运架设备架梁的应用

文章针对广珠城际轨道交通工程施工中450 t提运架设备箱梁架设施工方法、工艺及技术保证措施展开论述。     

护生实习出现护理差错的常见原因及防范措施

目的防范差错事故，为患者提供优质服务。方法对护理临床教学存在三个方面的问题和实习护生存在四个方面的问题，分析护生临床实习中护理差错常见原因，并提出防范措施。结果临床带教老师、护生法律意识淡薄是引起差错事故的主要原因。结论只有加强临床带教老师和护生的管理，加强医疗安全教育，提高法律意识，才能降低实习中差错的发生率。     

论产业竞争情报策略联盟

阐述了产业竞争情报策略联盟的概念,结合实际案例论述了策略联盟的实施措施,分析了产业竞争情报联盟的特点、实践形式及相关问题,对我国发展这一联盟模式提出了建设性意见。