Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.     

脂肪腈结构与凝聚型性能之间定量关系的研究

借助于分子拓扑学探讨了脂肪腈的凝聚型性能与分子结构之间的关系，提出一个结构基础明确的定量关系式．对乙腈到二十一烷腈的计算结果表明，沸点、密度和折光指数的计算值都很接近实验值．应用这一定量关系，不仅能够合理表征脂肪睛结构与凝聚型性能的关系，而且有助于揭示物质结构与性能关系之间的奥秘。     

Titius—Bode定则的发展,天体量子论和泛量子理论

太阳系的Titius-Bode定则可以发展为r_n=an~2,令α_1=0.042,n=3,4,5,6是类地行星;令α_2=1.2,n=2,3,4,5,6是类木行星。此时海王星、冥王星都是规则的,且适用于大多数卫星。由此可以完全类比于玻尔原子模型,并得出太阳系量子常数H=(αGM_⊙)~(1/2)和天体薛定谔方程。这样距离规则是行星演化时统计性的结果,宇宙中应普遍存在波粒二象性和形式相似而量子常数各不相同的泛量子理论。     

格值诱导空间的若干特征定理

讨论了格值诱导空间及相关的弱诱导空间和满层空间的代数特征和拓扑特征。     

层流液柱吸收法测定气体在液相中的扩散系数

采用射流吸收的简捷方法，通过测定由Ｓｈｏｕｔｈｗｅｌｌ型孔板所产生的截面速度均匀的层流喷射液柱所吸收的气体量，由渗透理论所导出的模型，可计算出一定温度、压力下的微溶气体在液相中的分子扩散系数Ｄ。在温度为３０～４５℃的范围，测试结果与文献值吻合良好．     

径向电磁离合器

一种新型结构的电磁离合器 ,可替代电磁联轴器。文中对这种离合器的工作原理、结构设计、参数选取和传动扭矩作了分析并给出了一种结构型式。试验样机证实了其工作原理的正确     

介观耗散互感耦合电路的库仑阻塞效应

给出了介观耗散互感耦合电路的量子化方法,并在介观电路中电荷量子化的基础上给出了介观耗散互感耦合电路的库仑阻塞条件.     

高校干部应具有与时俱进的思想素质

根据《讲话》中起统帅作用的基本观点之一:马克思列宁主义是与时俱进的科学,认识了“与时俱进”与“三个代表”的内在联系,提出了与时俱进的思想素质是高校干部应具备的基本条件,高校干部人事制度改革应按“三个代表”的要求加速深化.     

反馈网络中电位器对调节器性能的影响

通过对各种类型的调节器中含有电位器时传递函数的求解分析,得出接入电位器后对调节器的比例放大系数、微分时间常数及积分时间常数的影响结果,并使多种调节器在形式上得到了统一,根据需要可方便地调节电位器使其性能达到设计的需要.