How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?

In this paper, we propose a framework to evaluate the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists using micro data from the euro area Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the use of evaluation measures which take account of the entire predictive densities, and not just the probability assigned to the outcome that occurs. Overall, we find considerable heterogeneity in the performance of the surveyed densities at the individual level. However, it is hard to exploit this heterogeneity and improve aggregate performance by trimming poorly performing forecasters in real time. Relative to a set of simple benchmarks, density performance is somewhat better for GDP growth than for inflation, although in the former case it diminishes substantially with the forecast horizon. In addition, we report evidence of an improvement in the relative performance of expert densities during the recent period of macroeconomic volatility. However, our analysis also reveals clear evidence of overconfidence or neglected risks in expert probability assessments, as reflected in frequent occurrences of events which are assigned a zero probability. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real‐Time Forecasts of Inflation: The Role of Financial Variables

We present a mixed‐frequency model for daily forecasts of euro area inflation. The model combines a monthly index of core inflation with daily data from financial markets; estimates are carried out with the MIDAS regression approach. The forecasting ability of the model in real time is compared with that of standard VARs and of daily quotes of economic derivatives on euro area inflation. We find that the inclusion of daily variables helps to reduce forecast errors with respect to models that consider only monthly variables. The mixed‐frequency model also displays superior predictive performance with respect to forecasts solely based on economic derivatives. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于数据手套的逼真虚拟手的实现

在基于头盔、数据手套的虚拟现实系统中虚拟手的实现效果十分重要,传统的虚拟手模型将手掌和各手指分割为多个刚体,当虚拟手运动时在刚体连接处产生重叠或裂缝,严重影响了沉浸感。在此根据虚拟手的运动特点对其进行整体建模,并快捷地对数据手套采集的原始关节数据进行校正,在可编程图形硬件上利用顶点混合算法将校正后的数据作用于虚拟手模型来产生皮肤变形,在满足实时性的同时提供了逼真的视觉效果。最后还通过搭建实验系统验证了所述方法的可行性。     

公共交通实时控制模型研究

研究了实时控制模型 ,即对照中途站行车时刻表与车辆实际到达本站的时间 ,对车辆实施控制 ,保证线路的行车间隔和各车辆的载客量均匀正常 .论文重点讨论了实时调度的控制模型 ,然后给出了实例进行说明.     

一种通用的分布式实时数据显控方法

提出了基于控制文件的通用分布式实时数据显控方法,给出了其总体逻辑结构及数据显控总流程,描述了显示数据与控制文件中显示控制说明项的对应关系,最后给出了一种高效、灵活、易扩充的控制文件实现方法。     

我国房地产税收体系研究

房地产税收体系是我国税收体系的重要组成部分。从房地产税收体系、房地产税负水平、房地产课税环节、房地产收费水平四个方面,对我国及国外典型国家房地产税收现状进行了分析,并从我国房地产实践的总体情况和发展趋势出发,提出了房地产税收体系调整和优化方案。     

金融危机背景下影响购房者消费心理之因素探析

分析了金融危机大背景下影响我国消费者购房心理的主要因素,阐述了目前国家推动房地产行业健康发展所出台的优惠政策,提出从消费者层面恢复购房者信心的一些想法。     

泰安市房地产投资对GDP影响的实证研究

房地产业由于具有较强的前向、后向和旁侧关联度，已经成为我国产业链中重要的支柱产业之一。本文以Eviews6．0为平台，运用计量经济模型对泰安市GDP增长与房地产投资之间的关系进行了实证分析。同时探讨了关于房地产投资风险与控制，并针对当前形势提出了对房地产投资风险防范与控制建议。     

关于投资债券收益的分析

给出了一次还本付息债券和定期付息到期还本债券的实际收益率的计算方法，并给出了一些实例分析。     

Research on Construction Knowledge Resources Framework of Real Estate Enterprises

<正>Many studies have shown that knowledge resources have been the real source of innovation and competitiveness of real estate enterprises.Therefore,it is the basic work to establish the real estate enterprise knowledge resources framework for implementing knowledge management(KM),and it should be given enough attention.A sort of the real estate enterprise knowledge resources framework system has been built in this paper based on the thought of Clark Henderson' s enterprise knowledge classification,and the contents have been analyzed and expounded.Thus,the real estate enterprises can grasp clearly the basic contents of its knowledge resources,then depict the knowledge system,in the end the solid foundation should be settled for implementing knowledge management.