Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Aspirin-like drugs may block pain independently of prostaglandin synthesis inhibition

Summary Using flurbiprofen, a chiral anti-inflammatory and analgesic 2-arylpropionic acid derivative, the enantiomers of which are not converted to each other (less than 5%) in rats or man, we obtained evidence that prostaglandin synthesis inhibition is primarily mediating the anti-inflammatory activity but prostaglandin synthesis independent mechanisms contribute to the analgesic effects. Thus, the S-form inhibited prostaglandin synthesis, inflammation and nociception in rats. The R-form had much less effect on prostaglandin synthesis and did not affect inflammation. It did, however, block nociception in rats almost as potently as the S-form. S-flurbiprofen, in contrast to the R-form, was clearly ulcerogenic in the gastrointestinal mucosa. These results indicate additional molecular mechanisms of analgesia and suggest the use of R-arylpropionic acids as analgesics.     

基于神经网络的建筑行业投标报价研究

在建筑行业的投标报价过程中，如何在众多的信息中选出对最终报价影响较大的几项因素以及如何确定这些因素与最终报价之间的关系是一个棘手的问题．论文针对这两大难题提出了基于神经网络技术的解决方法．首先根据贡献变量分析理论确定出影响报价结果的9个报价因素，从而建立起基于神经网络的报价模型，然后在所确定模型的基础上改进传统的BP算法，进一步提高网络的泛化能力．从实际应用的结果可以看出，经过变量选择后所确定的报价因素是合理的，改进学习算法后的网络的泛化能力也有了很大的提高．     

基于模糊神经网络方法的新构造控水专家系统

在对大量野外地质资料统计和综合分析基础上，依据地质专家在新构造领域的理论知识和成功经验，运用模糊数学理论和神经网络理论相结合的方法，提出一种用线性单元并联实现非线性划分的神经元网络模型，并研制出相应具有较强推理能力和学习功能、广泛用于非定性系统数据处理的专家系统，该系统经实例验证具有较强的适用性。     

慢性萎缩性胃炎与正常胃活检组织RNA分布的研究

采用异硫氰酸荧光素（FITC）标记的核糖核酸酶（FITC－RNase）作为探针，结合半薄切片技术，观察了慢性萎缩性胃炎与正常胃活检组织中RNA的分布变化，结果表明：慢性萎缩性胃啖腺体细胞内RNA明显减少，分布部位与正常胃腺体细胞差异较大，这些结果于慢性萎缩性胃炎的病理诊断提供了一些依据，对进一步从分子水平上研究慢性萎缩性胃炎的病理变化及其与胃癌的关系具有一定的意义。     

Non-Minimum Phase Nonlinear System Predictive Control Based on Local Recurrent Neural Networks

Abstract: After a recursive multi-step-ahead predictor for nonlinear systems based on local recurrent neural networks isintroduced, an intelligent PID controller is adopted to correct the errors including identified model errors and accumulatederrors produced in the recursive process. Characterized by predictive control, this method can achieve a good controlaccuracy and has good robustness. A simulation study shows that this control algorithm is very effective.     

基于灰色系统与神经网络的航材消耗广义加权函数平均组合预测模型研究

建立了航材消耗的灰色系统预测模型与神经网络预测模型，同时给出了一种新的具有广泛代表性的组合预测模型－－广义加权函数平均组合预测模型及其加权系数的参数估计方法，并利用此方法建立了基于灰色系统与神经网络的航材消耗广义加权函数平均组合预测模型，最后以实例说明了其预测效果。     

钢液定氧测头响应时间和热平衡态

本文分别研究了ＺｒＯ２（ＭｇＯ）固体电解质管头壁厚，参比电极量对定氧测头响应时间的影响，得出了以ＺｒＯ２管头壁厚为０．６０－０．８０ｍｍ，Ｃｒ／Ｃｒ２Ｏ３参比电极加入量为４０－６０ｍｇ所组成的定氧测头响应速度最快，同时采用了“双偶法”对定氧测头在工作过程中的热平衡态进行了研究。结果表明：氧浓差电池中的传热是响应过程的控速步骤，氧电势曲线上峰值的产生是起源于电池中的热平衡态。     

一种基于模糊神经网络的自适应模糊辨识方法

基于改进的T-S模型，提出一种自适应模糊神经网络模型(AFNN)。首先，基于模糊竞争学习算法确定系统的模糊空间和模糊规则数，并得出每个样本对每条规则的适用程度。其次，利用卡尔曼滤波算法在线辨识AFNN的后件参数。AFNN具有结构简洁，逼近能力强，能够显著提高辨识精度，并且辨识的模糊模型简单有效。最后，将该AFNN用于非线性系统的模糊辨识，仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性。