A ground‐level ozone forecasting model for Santiago,Chile

A physically based model for ground‐level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations—for low and high ozone impacts—with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two‐ and three‐days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国居民消费水平的中长期预测

根据全国1992－1999年居民消费水平的统计数据，采用灰色系统理论的数据预测及缓冲算子公理，结合定性分析，建立了GM（1，1）模型，预测了我国2000－2005年居民消费水平的发展前景。     

Forecasting trend output in the Euro area

This paper is an applied study about forecasting trend output and the output gap in the Euro area. The need for trend output forecasts is justified by an analysis of the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank. Trend output serves as a direct inflation indicator and helps to determine the reference value for money. For both purposes, trend output has to be forecasted. A permanent–transitory decomposition based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex‐ante point forecasts of trend output are computed and bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take estimation uncertainty into consideration. The uncertainty of trend output and the output gap is quite large and raises questions about their usefulness as indicators for monetary policy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

耗散准模腔场与激子相互作用的量子统计性质

研究了耗散准模腔场与激子相互作用的量子统计特性 ,给出了当腔场初始处于真空态而激子处于真空态与粒子数态大于 2的叠加态时的腔场与激子能量交换的表达式。研究结果表明 ,激子和腔场可以呈现亚泊松分布状态 ,激子与腔场之间的关联是经典的 ,不存在Cauchy Schwartz不等式的偏离现象。     

相对论带电粒子经典多体问题

为建立相对论经典等离子体统计力学作准备，讨论了相对论带电粒子经典多体问题，重点分析相对论流线分布函数和动力学方程组。     

大众健美操的"应赛"训练

本文试就大众健美操短期集训这种常见的“应赛”现象，探讨教练员在训练前应把握要素和训练中应遵循的原则。     

对厦门市教育布局调整工作的几点建议

教育经费投入不足与教育资源浪费并存 ,是制约教育发展的主要因素之一。如何做好教育布局调整工作 ,进一步促进教育资源优化配置 ,已成为摆在我们面前的一个大课题。本文通过分析厦门市教育布局调整工作的现状 ,提出做好厦门市教育布局调整工作的几点建议。     

欧氏空间上的随机覆盖及其应用

运用Borel—Cantelli引理，改进并推广了Jean-Pierre Kahane在单位圆周上关于随机覆盖的结果，得到了在高维欧氏空间上关于随机覆盖的类似结果。且运用这些结果研究了多指标复Fourier-Redemacher级数与某些函数空间的关系，得到了多指标复Fourier—Redemacher级数几乎处处属于L^∞及几乎处处属于C的等价性。     

学生成绩分布与一种简便的评估试卷命题质量的方法

利用统计分析方法，对辽宁师范大理科学生成绩分布情况进行了分析；给出了一种评估试卷命题质量的简便易行的方法一用正态曲线拟合的方法，实际证明，效果很好。     

煤炭销售调运结算查询系统的实现

针对我国煤炭销售管理的现状，基于计算机网络技术，提出了一种高效、科学、可靠的现代化销售管理方案，利用其提供的强大的查询功能和方便的操作界面，可以彻底改变传统的手工操作方式，实现销售管理的现代化。介绍了由合同签订、铁路调运、财务结算和综合信息查询组成的销售管理系统方案的功能、设计目标、数据流程和软件实现方法。