二项分布Bayes鉴定试验次数的选择与分析

讨论了二项分布的可靠性Bayes鉴定试验方案问题。在试验样本量一定的条件下,充分利用验前信息弥补现场试验信息的不足,从平均后验风险角度制定了成败型系统可靠性鉴定试验的Bayes方案。密切结合工程试验,从生产和使用双方的实际风险的角度,研究分析了Bayes可靠性鉴定试验与评估的联系与差异。最后,与传统的鉴定试验方案进行了分析比较,明确了Bayes方法的使用范围,对于工程试验方案的选择具有实际的指导意义。     

基于支持向量机元模型的随机鲁棒设计

随机鲁棒设计是一种基于蒙特卡洛仿真的优化设计方法.通常情况下,对于复杂仿真模型的随机鲁棒设计时间开销很大.为减小随机鲁棒设计过程中的时间开销,使用参数最优的最小二乘支持向量机替代仿真模型进行随机鲁棒设计.使用标准粒子群优化算法搜索支持向量机参擞和控制器参数的寻优.通过一个基准测试问题证明了该方法的可行性.     

Designing a Hybrid Intelligent Mining System for Credit Risk Evaluation

In this study, a novel hybrid intelligent mining system integrating rough sets theory and support vector machines is developed to extract efficiently association rules from original information table for credit risk evaluation and analysis. In the proposed hybrid intelligent system, support vector machines are used as a tool to extract typical features and filter its noise, which are different from the previous studies where rough sets were only used as a preprocessor for support vector machines. Such an approach could reduce the information table and generate the final knowledge from the reduced information table by rough sets. Therefore, the proposed hybrid intelligent system overcomes the difficulty of extracting rules from a trained support vector machine classifier and possesses the robustness which is lacking for rough-set-based approaches. In addition, the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid intelligent system is illustrated with two real-world credit datasets.     

Participatory Sustainability Impact Assessment: Scientific Policy Advice as a Social Learning Process

This paper deals with the development of scientific policy advice by providing a methodology to foster a social learning process. The methodology, called participatory Sustainability Impact Assessment (pSIA), aims to structure complex problem situations, to clarify interests and basic assumptions, to interpret scientific studies, to develop impact assessment, and to explore sensitivity of uncertainty and lack of information. In pSIA workshops the participants are supposed to build conceptual models with different modelling methods, like System Dynamics, Value Chain Analysis, and Morphological Analysis. A case study is presented that describes a workshop series with political as well as academic actors, applying the pSIA approach to an impact assessment of Economic Partnership Agreements between the European Union and the Eastern and Southern Africa Region.

轿车市场短期需求的多层次灰色预测方法

本文提出一个新的实用多层次灰色预测方法,并用此方法预测了中国轿车产品短期市场需求     

晋中榆社县云竹河流域土地整理规划研究

应用多目标规划和模糊综合评价方法对晋中榆社县云竹河流域大型土地整理工程进行规划 ,得出三个供选方案 .通过对三个方案的综合评价 ,选出一个最优方案作为整理区的实施方案 ,并对实施方案进行了全面的分析.     

汛限水位动态控制方案优选方法及指标体系研究

基于汛限水位实时动态控制的新理念,提出汛限水位实时动态控制方案的决策方法及其实施步骤.引入洪水与兴利连续长系列调节方法并采用PowerBuilder 8.0开发相应的系统软件计算水库的兴利效益,给出汛限水位动态控制风险率和风险损失的定义与计算方法.在此基础上,选取部分兴利效益指标和风险控制指标构建汛限水位实时动态控制决策方案优选的多指标评价体系.最后以大连市碧流河水库为例,采用多目标模糊模式识别理论模型对汛限水位动态控制方案进行优选计算,进而确定了水库实时调度过程中汛限水位动态控制的满意决策方案.     

基于VaR的多阶段存货风险衡量方法

VaR(风险价值)方法在金融管理中作为一种衡量风险的有效手段,得到了越来越广泛的应用. 探讨VaR方法应用于存货的风险控制,通过将存货区分为单一阶段存货和多阶段存货,借助VaR的方法,讨论了多阶段存货管理中的风险衡量问题;介绍了存货管理中与VaR方法有关的基本概念;通过VaR方法的运用,建立了随机需求下的多阶段存货决策模型,并采用解析方法得到了VaR值的分布范围,为有效度量多阶段存货风险提供了期望最大收益(或最大成本)的界值.     

有机物分子量分布特点对BAF-O3-BAC净水工艺的评价

采用曝气生物滤池(BAF)、气浮和臭氧生物活性炭(BAC)联用技术对太湖原水进行试验.有机物分子量分布测定结果表明:曝气生物滤池单元对分子量小于0.5 kD(道尔顿)的有机物去除率最高,其次是分子量介于1～3 kD的有机物;气浮单元对分子量大于100 kD的有机物去除率最高;臭氧氧化单元对分子量大于3 kD的有机物去除率较高,而对于小于3 kD的有机物不但不能去除,反而有所增加;生物活性炭单元对分子量小于10 kD的有机物均能有效去除,分子量越小,去除率越高.综合评价认为:曝气生物滤池、气浮和臭氧生物活性炭联用技术处理微污染水源水的净水工艺是合理的.     

大气质量评价决策支持系统

以阜新市污水处理厂建设过程对周边大气环境的影响评价为例,采用从定性到定量的综合集成方法和Visualc＋＋编程技术,把决策理论基本知识引入到环境评价工作中,对此交叉领域展开深入研究,建立了大气质量评价决策支持系统（AA-DSS）a研究结果表明,该系统简单、实用且易于维护,大大缩短了大气质量评价工作流程,提高了工效,同时为决策理论在整个环境质量评价中的推广应用奠定了基础。