广东实施峰谷电价及其效果探讨

研究了广东省的峰谷电价政策及其实施效果。通过对佛山市某些典型大工业用户依据电价政策变化而进行的负荷调整情况的分析表明峰谷电价新政策在一定程度上促使了企业进行生产的重新安排以减少电费开支，并在总体上促进了电力消费。     

需求价格弹性理论在价格策略中的应用

需求弹性在企业经营中是一个非常重要的问题。本文首先论述了需求弹性的一般含义,由此分析需求弹性在市场预测中的应用和在企业价格决策中的重要性,以及如何制定企业的价格策略。     

Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

价格战的运用与应对研究

随着我国市场化改革的不断深入，价格战已经逐渐成为许多企业主动或被动频繁使用的策略。从产品生命周期，产品组合策略，产品边际成本等方面分析了运用价格战应考虑的因素，同时提出了应对价格战的措施和价格战向价值战转变的建议。     

岩土体渗透变形在坝基工程中的危害及防治

介绍了渗透变形的特征，危害及其影响因素，阐述了渗透变形的预测和防治方法。     

应用等维新息双向差分灰色模型进行趋势分析的新发现

本建立了最佳等维新息双向差分灰色模型，不仅拓宽了灰色预测的适用范围，而且还通过维数选择确定了最佳维数；使用最新数学工具软件MATLAB进行编程，同时通过对上证周指进行趋势分析，该等维新息预测能较准确地预测未来随机时间序列的涨、跌幅度。     

Windows环境下光伏水泵报价系统的实现

该文介绍了在Ｗｉｎｄｏｗｅ３．１环境下．利用ＭｉｃｒｏｓｏｆｔＣ（＋＋）及其基本类库（ＭＦＣ）开发光伏水泵报价系统的方法。该方法采用了面向对象技术，使软件具备可重用性。同时，ＭＦＣ类库的使用使复杂的Ｗｉｎ－ｄｏｗｓ应用程序的编程接口变得更容易。该方法对其它工程报价问题也具借鉴意义。     

我国工业重大灾害的Delphi预测方法及其应用──重大危险源辨识的德尔菲（Delphi）专家系统设计

文章针对我国工业企业重大灾害频繁发生的现实，运用Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ方法对人－机－环境系统中大量无法定量的危险源作出概率估算和危险度分级，为建立重大危险源辨识的定量与定性分析相结合的专家系统等做一些初步探讨。     

马尔柯夫链状预测的概率计算及拓广

提出了一种马尔柯夫链状预测中的概率计算新方法：状态划分矩阵法;具有模糊状态的马尔柯夫链的概率计算公式,并用实例计算作了说明。     

Predicting returns and volatility with macroeconomic variables: evidence from tests of encompassing

Tests of forecast encompassing are used to evaluate one‐step‐ahead forecasts of S&P Composite index returns and volatility. It is found that forecasts over the 1990s made from models that include macroeconomic variables tend to be encompassed by those made from a benchmark model which does not include macroeconomic variables. However, macroeconomic variables are found to add significant information to forecasts of returns and volatility over the 1970s. Often in empirical research on forecasting stock index returns and volatility, in‐sample information criteria are used to rank potential forecasting models. Here, none of the forecasting models for the 1970s that include macroeconomic variables are, on the basis of information criteria, preferred to the relevant benchmark specification. Thus, had investors used information criteria to choose between the models used for forecasting over the 1970s considered in this paper, the predictability that tests of encompassing reveal would not have been exploited. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.