经济预测方法的应用

运用多种经济预测方法,对长春市公路客运量进行预测,经过综合分析,确定出预测年度长春市公路客运量的预测值。     

Realism on the rocks: Novel success and James Hutton's theory of the earth

In this paper, I introduce a new historical case study into the scientific realism debate. During the late-eighteenth century, the Scottish natural philosopher James Hutton made two important successful novel predictions. The first concerned granitic veins intruding from granite masses into strata. The second concerned what geologists now term “angular unconformities”: older sections of strata overlain by younger sections, the two resting at different angles, the former typically more inclined than the latter. These predictions, I argue, are potentially problematic for selective scientific realism in that constituents of Hutton's theory that would not be considered even approximately true today played various roles in generating them. The aim here is not to provide a full philosophical analysis but to introduce the case into the debate by detailing the history and showing why, at least prima facie, it presents a problem for selective realism. First, I explicate Hutton's theory. I then give an account of Hutton's predictions and their confirmations. Next, I explain why these predictions are relevant to the realism debate. Finally, I consider which constituents of Hutton's theory are, according to current beliefs, true (or approximately true), which are not (even approximately) true, and which were responsible for these successes.     

基于均匀化理论的复合材料热膨胀系数预测方法

建立了基于均匀化理论的复合材料热膨胀系数预测方法。给出了预测热膨胀系数的细观均匀化问题的形式及其有限元求解过程。利用该方法预测了空心材料和单向纤维复合材料的热膨胀系数。所得结果与理论分析结果和实验值吻合较好，说明该方法是可靠的。     

球形空心材料导热性能预测研究

研究了球形空心材料的导热性，给出了空心材料导热性与基体材料导热性及空心体分比间的关系。首先，将均匀化方法应用预测空心材料的导热性方面，并用该方法以图形方式给出了材料导热性同空心体分比间的关系；蕨，利用自洽模型和广义自洽模型给出了预测空心材料导热性的表达式。结果比较表明，这些方法给出了非常接近的结果，特别是均匀化方法和广义自洽方法的结果几乎的相同的。指出了Ｔｚｏｕ的关于球形空心材料导热性关系式的错误     

Testing weak rationality of forecasts with different time horizons

Starting with conventional tests for weak rationality, we show how additional tests can be performed if predictions with different time horizons are commonly used in them. Next, we show that most of these tests can still be applied if the structure of the economic system changes but only some of them if the true system is unknown. Finally, these tests are applied to the semi-annual one-and two-step predictions of the group of five leading economic research institutes in the Federal Republic of Germany. For the two-step predictions we find more evidence against the rational expectations hypothesis than for the one-step predictions.     

短纤维增强复合材料刚度系数预测

运用已开发的计算机软件,模拟了短纤维增强复合材料的微观组织结构,预测了在机械载荷作用下13种复合材料样品的刚度系数.采用数理统计中的回归分析方法对预测结果进行分析后发现:每种复合材料样品的刚度系数C11,C12,C44均随着增强相材料体积份额φ的增大而增大,它们之间有很好的线性回归关系;此外,对于不同类型的复合材料样品,复合材料刚度系数与组分材料的刚度系数、弹性模量及各向异性比之间均呈现有规律的数值对应关系,而基体材料的平均晶粒尺寸D对复合材料刚度系数几乎没有影响.     

淮南市区浅层地下水动态特征及其预测

本文根据淮南市区浅层地下水的动态监测资料,分析研究了市区浅层地下水动态变化规律及其影响因素。在此基础上进行了市区浅层地下水动态的预测,取得了较好的实际效果。     

油轮波浪载荷直接计算法探讨

应用引进的规则波中船舶运动及载荷计算程序“ＮＳＲＤＣ”,结合自编的不规则波程序“ＩＲＪＹＪ”,以６５０００ ＤＷＴ油轮为例,对波浪载荷进行了直接计算。并根据以我国沿海台站与随船测量风浪资料建立的设计波高计算式,对波浪载荷长期预报进行了探讨。     

智能模糊控制器

给出了一种智能模糊控制器的设计方法。这种控制器由专家系统形式的智能协调器、连续模糊控制器、模糊预估器及模糊前馈控制器几部分构成,在专家系统的协调下,通过开环与闭环相结合、位置与增量相结合的调节方式,给出了接近最优的控制策略.仿真结果也证实了这一点。     

应用逻辑信息法对某超基性岩带含矿性的预测

本区研究程度较低,区内已知岩体16个,其中仅一个岩体具工业价值镍矿。作者借用国内其它地质条件可对应的少数含矿岩体作为模型,用所需模型较少的逻辑信息法进行统计,研究时引进了含矿度(H),求得了储量与含矿度间的回归方程,并用此方程预测得15个岩体的镍资源量。