Function approximation for incompletely specified regression models

This report extends earlier work by Brailovsky on regression theory and methodology, giving particular emphasis to function approximation for incompletely specified models. The interest here is with situations where the form of the regression relation is not known in advance. We discuss several difficulties that arise in using local approximation and linear regression methods, and propose ways to overcome these problems. To aid the data analyst in developing a suitable model, an illustrative table is derived for determining the number of initial explanatory functions justifiable for a given prespecified confidence level. The general approach formulated here is illustrated with an application to medical data. Relevance to classification and possible extensions are discussed.     

Beyond heuristics and biases: A contingency model of judgemental forecasting

The conflicting viewpoints about the quality of judgemental forecasts are examined and a model is proposed that attempts to resolve the conflict. The model sees forecasts as contingent upon the repertory of forecasting strategies that the forecaster brings to the forecasting task, the strategy that he or she selects as a function of the characteristics of the task, and the rigour with which he or she applies the strategy as a function of the motivating characteristics of the environment in which the task is encountered. The implications of differences in subjects' and experimenters' assumptions about which strategies are appropriate in experimental studies are examined, as are the implications of the differences between the motivating aspects of experimental and applied settings on both performance and on the generatizability of the results of experiments to applied judgemental forecasting.     

多媒体数据库管理系统MBASE－I的结构和语言

介绍多媒体数据库管理系统Ｍｂａｓｅ－Ｉ的系统结构、功能和语言特征，并论述其内核软件的构造特点及主要工作原理。     

灰色GM模型及其应用

灰色ＧＭ模型及其应用刘希强（聊城师范学院灰色系统研究所，山东２５２０００）ＧｒｅｙＭｏｄｅｌｓａｎｄＩｔｓＡｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｓＬｉｕＸｉｑｉａｎｇ（ＬｉａｏｃｈｅｎｇＴｅａｃｈｅｒｓ’Ｃｏｌｌｅｇｅ，Ｓｈａｎｄｏｎｇ２５２０００）Ａｂｓｔｒａｃｔ...     

模糊建模与控制的神经网络方法及其仿真研究

本文提出了一种复杂系统模糊建模及控制的神经网络方法。利用改进的ｐｉ－ｓｉｇｍａ 网络，对模糊规则的结论参数和隶属函数进行在线修正，实现模糊规则的自组织。这种方法被用于降水量预报和机器人解耦控制，取得了满意的仿真结果。为增强神经网络仿真算法的快速性，本文采用了一种基于向量的数据结构，并用标识阵指示神经元的连接状态，以实现有效的内存运算。     

盆地数值模拟的研究现状及发展

盆地数值模拟是目前世界上评价沉积盆地的油气资源远景的重要方法,它的产生标志着油气资源评价工作由传统的定性描述上升到定量描述的新高度。通过计算机技术把地质、地球物理、地球化学等多方面的概念模型变为数学模型,得到定量的结果。虽然由于石油地质理论尚有一些不成熟之处,获得参数的精度也存在一定问题,但它仍然是一种很有发展前景的定量评价方法。文中指出了这种方法的发展方向。     

枣步曲的生物特性及预测初探

文章对枣树害虫枣步曲进行了研究，经过试验观察，对枣步曲的生物学特性、发生年变化主导因子及预测进行了初探。     

BEAM法地质预报系统在中国TBM施工中应用

TBM施工中,为了及时有效地探明前方地质条件,引进了国外IBM施工中已广为采用的BEAM探测法,并对在我国TBM工程中首次使用的情况进行了介绍。BEAM法以电法测试为基础,技术人员在TBM设备及洞壁上安装电极发射电流和进行观测处理,通过监视器实时评价和显示出前方地质情况的好坏。该方法的优势是可以进行实时观测和判断围岩情况,对TBM顺利及安全施工有很大的指导作用。在我国TBM施工中推广应用BEAM探测法具有很大的实际意义和价值。