基于BP神经网络的城市燃气月度负荷预测研究

应用MATLAB科学计算软件编制了对浙江省某城市燃气月度负荷的预测程序,建立了燃气月度负荷预测的BP神经网络模型,对模型进行训练后,利用它对该市燃气月度负荷进行了预测,预测结果的相对误差最在±6.34%以内,由预测结果可知该模型预测精度较高,完全可以达到工程实际应用的目标。     

用先进典型宣传推进高校社会主义荣辱观教育

在高校开展社会主义荣辱观教育的过程中,要注重发挥先进典型的重要作用。要精心树立先进典型,科学设计宣传内容,合理利用宣传形式,准确把握宣传时机,营造浓厚氛围,用有效的先进典型宣传推进高校社会主义荣辱观教育。     

Spatial dependence model with feature difference

This paper presents a new spatial dependence model with an adjustment of feature difference. The model accounts for the spatial autocorrelation in both the outcome variables and residuals. The feature difference adjustment in the model helps to emphasize feature changes across neighboring units, while suppressing unobserved covariates that are present in the same neighborhood. The prediction at a given unit incorporates components that depend on the differences between the values of its main features and those of its neighboring units. In contrast to conventional spatial regression models, our model does not require a comprehensive list of global covariates necessary to estimate the outcome variable at the unit, as common macro-level covariates are differenced away in the regression analysis. Using the real estate market data in Hong Kong, we applied Gibbs sampling to determine the posterior distribution of each model parameter. The result of our empirical analysis confirms that the adjustment of feature difference with an inclusion of the spatial error autocorrelation produces better out-of-sample prediction performance than other conventional spatial dependence models. In addition, our empirical analysis can identify components with more significant contributions.     

Multicategory Purchase Incidence Models for Partitions of Product Categories

We analyze multicategory purchases of households by means of heterogeneous multivariate probit models that relate to partitions formed from a total of 25 product categories. We investigate both prior and post hoc partitions. We search model structures by a stochastic algorithm and estimate models by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The best model in terms of cross‐validated log‐likelihood refers to a post hoc partition with two groups; the second‐best model considers all categories as one group. Among prior partitions with at least two category groups a five‐group model performs best. Effects on average basket value differ for the model with five prior category groups from those for the best‐performing model in 40% and 24% of the investigated categories for features and displays, respectively. In addition, the model with five prior category groups also underestimates total sales revenue across all categories by about 28%. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mathematical formalisms in scientific practice: From denotation to model-based representation

The present paper argues that ‘mature mathematical formalisms’ play a central role in achieving representation via scientific models. A close discussion of two contemporary accounts of how mathematical models apply—the DDI account (according to which representation depends on the successful interplay of denotation, demonstration and interpretation) and the ‘matching model’ account—reveals shortcomings of each, which, it is argued, suggests that scientific representation may be ineliminably heterogeneous in character. In order to achieve a degree of unification that is compatible with successful representation, scientists often rely on the existence of a ‘mature mathematical formalism’, where the latter refers to a—mathematically formulated and physically interpreted—notational system of locally applicable rules that derive from (but need not be reducible to) fundamental theory. As mathematical formalisms undergo a process of elaboration, enrichment, and entrenchment, they come to embody theoretical, ontological, and methodological commitments and assumptions. Since these are enshrined in the formalism itself, they are no longer readily obvious to either the novice or the proficient user. At the same time as formalisms constrain what may be represented, they also function as inferential and interpretative resources.     

Non-LTE恒星大气模型完全线性化原理

通过对Ｎｏｎ－ＬＴＥ的平面平行状恒星大气结构的数值模型完全线性化方法工作原理的介绍,阐述了恒星大气理论的工作原理和一般方法,重点说明了恒星大气数值方法的工作特点。     

延迟区间BAM神经动力学模型及鲁棒稳定性分析

给出了带轴突信号传输延迟的区间ＢＡＭ神经动力学模型（ＤＩＢＡＭ）,它是其他ＢＡＭ模型的推广,应用区间动力学系统的稳定性理论,并且构造适当的Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ函数,研究了ＤＩＢＡＭ的鲁棒稳定性,得到了一个充分条件,用几个具体例子进行了计算机模拟,结果表明所得的鲁棒稳定性条件的正确性。     

Making the abstract concrete: The role of norms and values in experimental modeling

Experimental modeling is the construction of theoretical models hand in hand with experimental activity. As explained in Section 1, experimental modeling starts with claims about phenomena that use abstract concepts, concepts whose conditions of realization are not yet specified; and it ends with a concrete model of the phenomenon, a model that can be tested against data. This paper argues that this process from abstract concepts to concrete models involves judgments of relevance, which are irreducibly normative. In Section 2, we show, on the basis of several case studies, how these judgments contribute to the determination of the conditions of realization of the abstract concepts and, at the same time, of the quantities that characterize the phenomenon under study. Then, in Section 3, we compare this view on modeling with other approaches that also have acknowledged the role of relevance judgments in science. To conclude, in Section 4, we discuss the possibility of a plurality of relevance judgments and introduce a distinction between locally and generally relevant factors.     

关于城市环境立法的若干思考

城市环境污染问题的解决离不开法律措施.城市环境具有公共物品、多价值性、滞后性和资源总量随交易而递减的特点,决定了城市环境立法具有社会法、涉及广泛利益冲突、科技色彩和涉及代际公平的特点.在立法模式上,强调精细化和发挥地方立法的作用,并注意诸法的整合,避免冲突和疏漏.在立法的内涵上,应健全公众参与机制和政策工具的多元化,从而提高立法的质量.     

煤矿生产经营决策支持系统

本文主要探讨煤矿生产经营决策支持系统MPMDSS的设计思想和构建方法, 文中介绍了MPMDSS数据库、模型库、方法库以及人机交互系统的功能特点和实现途径, 并着重阐述了MPMDSS的核心-煤矿生产经营分布式仿真模型的设计, 文中提出的一些设想和方法, 为MPMDSS的实施与开发打下了基础。