能源供求予测模型

本文论述了三种予测能源需求的方法,并对其作了评价;提出了一种能源供应予测模型;最后对我省能源、经济、予测研究提出了建议。     

谈青少年业余运动员的力量训练

对青少年业余运动员力量训练的作用、影响因素和训练方法进行探讨,提出力量训练要针对青少年的身心特点和专项要求,长期坚持,重视质量,其效果取决于计划的系统性和训练方法的选择。     

某库岸滑坡稳定分析及治理措施研究

从地质条件出发,详细分析了滑坡的成因,以大型的岩土工程数值分析软件(ADINA)为研究手段,建立有限元计算模型,用强度折减的方法分析了滑坡体在初始工况、蓄水工况、暴雨工况、水位骤降工况和地震工况下的稳定情况,根据滑坡的失稳情况,在综合考虑的基础上,提出了削坡减载和地表排水相结合的治理措施,计算结果表明,治理措施是可行的,研究结果对设计和施工具有较大的参考价值.     

炼镁还原罐材质的成份设计

本文针对炼镁还原罐在使用条件下的破坏形式及对该材质的成份设计进行了分析 ,还原罐材质在具有单一奥氏体的基础上 ,进行良好的合金化处理是提高其抗蠕变性和热强性的有效方法 ,对提高材质的使用寿命起到良好的作用。     

Y32－300型四柱式压力机工作台的设计

利用弹性力学的变分原理，对Ｙ３２－３００型四柱式万能压力机主机工作台的强度和刚度进行了研究，并给出了估算其变厚度的实用方法。     

碱金属对焦炭反应性和反应后强度的影响

作者通过焦炭的浸碱试验，阐述了碱金属对焦炭反应性和反应后强度的影响，认为碱金属加速了焦炭的气化反应。显微组织研究表明，气化后的焦炭有明显的烧蚀现象。由此产生裂隙，形成许多脆弱薄壁的连通孔，导致焦炭强度下降，块度变小     

A ground‐level ozone forecasting model for Santiago,Chile

A physically based model for ground‐level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations—for low and high ozone impacts—with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two‐ and three‐days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国居民消费水平的中长期预测

根据全国1992－1999年居民消费水平的统计数据，采用灰色系统理论的数据预测及缓冲算子公理，结合定性分析，建立了GM（1，1）模型，预测了我国2000－2005年居民消费水平的发展前景。     

Forecasting trend output in the Euro area

This paper is an applied study about forecasting trend output and the output gap in the Euro area. The need for trend output forecasts is justified by an analysis of the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank. Trend output serves as a direct inflation indicator and helps to determine the reference value for money. For both purposes, trend output has to be forecasted. A permanent–transitory decomposition based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex‐ante point forecasts of trend output are computed and bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take estimation uncertainty into consideration. The uncertainty of trend output and the output gap is quite large and raises questions about their usefulness as indicators for monetary policy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fabrication and Application of High Quality Diamond-coated Tools

Diamond-coated tools were fabricated using Co-cemented carbide inserts as substrates by the electronically aided hot filament chemical vapor deposition (EACVD). An amount of additive in an acid solution was used to promote the Co etching of the substrate surface. The surface of the WC-Co substrate was decarburized by microwave plasma with Ar-H 2 gas. Effect of the new substrate pretreatment on the adhesion of diamond films was investigated. A boron-doped solution was brushed on the tool surface to diffuse ...