反演海底参数的不确定性对声传播损失预报的影响

浅海混响反演海底声学参数的结果通常被直接用于计算(预报)声传播损失(TL),而很少考虑参数反演结果的不确定性对TL预报的影响.首次采用后验预报概率方法分析浅海混响垂直相关反演海底参数结果的不确定性对TL预报的影响.一次海上实验数据处理的结果表明:3个不同深度、1～5km传播距离内,500～800Hz频段相干TL在相干极大值附近其后验预报概率分布较为分散,而在其他区域较为集中,相应的最大90%置信区间(CI)超过20dB,整体距离上的平均90%CI也超过6dB;相同条件下非相干TL的后验预报概率均很好地收敛于最优值,相应的最大90%CI不超过5dB,距离平均90%CI小于3dB.     

基于遗传算法的嵌入式仿真的系统辨识与控制优化

数字随动(伺服)系统因具有非线性、不确定性和时变性,难以精确地建立系统的数学模型,由此对设计高性能的控制器造成困难.遗传算法因其隐含并行性、全局搜索等优点,在优化问题领域得到了很好的应用,但遗传算法简单应用于如数字随动系统这样的控制系统在线闭环辨识或参数优化时,会面临大量重复实验成本高、实验时间过长引起系统不稳定等实际问题.针对以上困难,提出一种基于嵌入式仿真的系统辨识方法,采用遗传算法进行数字随动系统同步在线闭环模型参数辨识与控制参数寻优.经过在数字随动系统实物环境下实验,证明了该方法的有效性.     

软件可靠性关键参数判定的矩估计方法

已有的基于结构的软件可靠性研究中大多假设建模参数为已知常量,导致模型忽略了参数估计的统计特征对于系统可靠性的影响.针对该问题,提出一种基于矩估计的软件可靠性关键参数判定方法,该方法通过分析基于结构软件可靠性模型的特点,建立各建模参数的矩估计量与系统可靠性预测结果之间的关系,量化各参数对于系统可靠性的影响,判定关键参数.为系统可靠性控制、系统结构优化及软件测试资源最优化分配等问题的解决提供了理论支持,通过对两个实际软件系统的分析验证了方法的有效性.     

具有漂移特征的退化可靠性评估方法研究

针对具有参数漂移特征的产品, 首先采用随机扩散理论描述其参数漂移规律, 并建立了参数漂移模型. 在此基础上, 提出了基于参数漂移特征的退化补充样本容量的确定方法, 建立了基于退化观测数据和补充样本数据的产品退化可靠性评估模型. 最后, 通过对某传感器电压数据进行处理, 说明了该方法得到的可靠性估计结果具有较好的精度和稳健性, 与工程实际相符.     

Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time‐Varying Parameters

Hidden Markov models are often used to model daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time‐varying behavior have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time varying. It is shown that a two‐state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time‐varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time‐varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one‐step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

External synchronization of two dynamical systems with uncertain parameters

External synchronization is addressed as two or more dynamical systems with synchronous motions, which is also regarded as master-slave system. In this paper, two dynamical systems, one employs a hysteretic term to model the friction phenomenon, the other involves a hardening stiffness component with the third order of displacement due to flexible deformation, are controlled to converge to the same trajectory. The control strategy is extended from feedback control for all parameters known to adaptive contro...     

Two new species of Bonnetina tarantulas (Theraphosidae: Theraphosinae) from Mexico: contributions to morphological nomenclature and molecular characterization of types

Two new species of tarantulas from Mexico are described and illustrated: Bonnetina tenuiverpis and Bonnetina juxtantricola, from the states of Mexico and Guerrero, respectively. Male palpal bulbs, tibial apophyses and spermatheca are among the most taxonomically informative characters. Male bulb microstructure is revealed from scanning electron microscopy; both new and homologous structures to other Theraphosinae genera are identified and described. Nomenclatural changes for male tibial apophyses are also proposed. The holotype male and allotype female of one of the species are molecularly characterized and matched from CO1 partial sequence.

http://zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:BBDBBEDE-6983-4F5C-B34C-4622DF494C84     

压力传感器的硅玻静电键合

针对MEMS压力传感器封装关键技术,从结构仿真和工艺参数等方面研究了一款压力传感器的硅玻静电键合问题,旨在减小封接对压力传感器芯片输出性能的影响。设计并制作键合装置,进而完成实验,最终优化键合温度,电压等参数值,验证最佳温度350~C,理想电压范围500～900V。     

长周期光纤光栅模式与耦合系数的研究

从耦合模理论出发,采用三层介质光纤模型,用数值计算的方法分析了长周期光纤光栅纤芯模和包层模的有效折射率,一阶低次包层模的耦合系数随波长以及阶次的变化关系.研究发现,低次包层模的最大耦合系数对应的模次随波长增大而减小,不同光纤参数下耦合系数随波长变化的规律不同.耦合系数直接影响到光栅透射谱损耗峰峰值,这对长周期光栅的设计有一定的参考价值.     

一种处理高浓度渗滤液的新工艺研究

为了提高矿化垃圾生物反应床对渗滤液有机物和氮类污染物的处理能力,在充分结合准好氧结构优势和矿化垃圾生物反应床特点的基础上,提出了准好氧矿化垃圾生物反应床处理渗滤液的工艺。单周期渗滤液处理实验和按L9（3^4）运行的正交实验结果表明：在矿化垃圾有效高度为900mm,温度为20—35℃,运行周期为1—3d,水力负荷为5～32L／（m^3·d）,COD负荷为210-1280g/（m^3·d）的条件下,COD、氨氮和总氮的去除率分别能达到98％、94％和80％以上;渗滤液回灌后,水质和水量分剐在9h和24h后趋于稳定;随着运行时间的延长,渗滤液优先流会增加;在保温状态下,冬季的处理效果优于夏季。该技术不但解决了其他类型矿化垃圾生物反应床总氮去除效率不高的难题,还具有较好是渗滤液减量化效果。