Mortality effects of temperature changes in the United Kingdom

Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659–671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature‐related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better‐fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed.     

Diet composition of an invasive population of Lithobates catesbeianus (American Bullfrog) from Argentina

The American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus has been introduced around the world, with invasive populations reported from almost all South American countries. A population of this species was introduced in the Calingasta department of San Juan province, which is an arid environment in western Argentina. This work provides information on the dietary composition of an invasive population of L. catesbeianus, and compares the degree of dietary overlap between adults and juveniles. Stomach contents of 169 bullfrogs (82 adults and 87 juveniles) were analysed. Adults consumed 40 prey taxa and Hymenoptera (Insecta) was the most numerous prey item (41.8%), followed by Araneae (13.6%) and Aeglidae (13.4%). Juveniles consumed 29 prey taxa and Hymenoptera constituted the highest percentage in prey number (77.2%). The trophic overlap niche index at the same level shows a value of 0.64 overlap in dietary community between adults and juveniles of this bullfrog. Aeglidae was volumetrically the most important trophic item (25.4%), followed by Anura (25.02%). Our results showed that cannibalism in bullfrogs is more common than the consumption of native anurans, coinciding with that reported in other populations of introduced bullfrogs. The high similarity in the diets of both size classes and the association between the size of the predator and prey suggest that the impact caused by bullfrogs throughout their ontogeny is high and probably has an impact on their prey. Freshwater crabs are the main items in the diet of Lithobates catesbeianus in other introduced populations and are usually the most conspicuous at our study site. The crabs in freshwater ecosystems are part of the lowest trophic level in the food chain. The major threats to the southern region’s freshwater crabs include deforestation, farming and exotic species. Lithobates catesbeianus has a generalist diet and high overlap between adults and juveniles.     

Non-invasive genetic study and population monitoring of the brown bear (Ursus arctos) (Mammalia: Ursidae) in Kastoria region – Greece

The brown bear (Ursus arctos) in Greece is considered endangered but little is known about the genetic status and the exact size of local populations. Non-invasive genetic sampling was used in this study to investigate the genetic diversity and genetic structure of the brown bear population in the Kastoria region (northwest Macedonia, Greece) and to estimate its population size. Estimation of demographic parameters was based on innovative, well-evaluated methods that can provide estimates from a single sampling session. DNA was extracted from hairs, scat and blood samples and subsequent amplification of 10 microsatellite loci allowed the identification of a minimum number of 75 living bears in the study area while the mark–recapture-based analysis resulted in a point estimation of 219 individuals. Relatively high diversity values, lack of heterozygosity deficiency as well as estimated effective population size, support the Kastoria bear population having good conservation status.     

Dark matter,the Equivalence Principle and modified gravity

Dark matter (DM) is an essential ingredient of the present Standard Cosmological Model, according to which only 5% of the mass/energy content of our universe is made of ordinary matter. In recent times, it has been argued that certain cases of gravitational lensing represent a new type of evidence for the existence of DM. In a recent paper, Peter Kosso attempts to substantiate that claim. His argument is that, although in such cases DM is only detected by its gravitational effects, gravitational lensing is a direct consequence of Einstein's Equivalence Principle (EEP) and therefore the complete gravitational theory is not needed in order to derive such lensing effects. In this paper I critically examine Kosso's argument: I confront the notion of empirical evidence involved in the discussion and argue that EEP does not have enough power by itself to sustain the claim that gravitational lensing in the Bullet Cluster constitutes evidence for the DM Hypothesis. As a consequence of this, it is necessary to examine the details of alternative theories of gravity to decide whether certain empirical situations are indeed evidence for the existence of DM. It may well be correct that gravitational lensing does constitute evidence for the DM Hypothesis—at present it is controversial whether the proposed modifications of gravitation all need DM to account for the phenomenon of gravitational lensing and if so, of which kind—but this will not be a direct consequence of EEP.     

环境污染时生物种群的控制问题

本文研究一类受环境污染的单种群系统．本文将毒素输入率作为控制变量，研究线性化单种群系统的最小范数控制问题，给出了一个单种群系统最小范数控制元的存在性定理．     

软件定义网络下两阶段大象流识别算法

目的 针对数据中心网络(Data Center Network, DCN)中数据流量多导致大象流与老鼠流识别精确度低的问题,提出一种基于软件定义网络(Software Defined Networking, SDN)下两阶段大象流识别算法。方法 将SDN与DCN结合,第一阶段,采用高斯分布动态阈值优化算法,通过对数据包阈值的设定,计算大象流误检率与漏检率,不断优化得到最优阈值,以此识别出可疑大象流;第二阶段,在依据流传输速率与流持续时间精确得到大象流的基础上,提出阈值约束、流量检测机制、Count计数器等三方面改进对大象流识别阈值下限的约束,将网络中大象流的数据量与流持续时间进行周期内阈值计算,提高大象流的识别精确度。结果 实验结果表明：算法与已有相关算法相比,第一阶段可疑大象流平均字节数比网络流平均字节数多11.3%;不同阈值下的算法准确度提高1.7%,不同网络流量下的大象流平均检测时间降低至6 ms以内。结论 软件定义网络下两阶段大象流识别算法在第一阶段具有较强的大象流识别能力,同时算法的精确度有所提高,大象流的平均检测时间降低,提高了网络质量,能为进行网络流量调度策略的进一步研究...     

时滞种群动力系统的线性化振动

本文利用文献［２］中作者得到的线性化振动定理研究了种群动力学中出现的几类方程解的振动性，推广和改进了文献中的许多结果。     

中锋背篮接球进攻技术分析

本文研究了中锋背篮接球进攻技术的思维程序和行为步骤。     

刚体平衡问题再研究

以刚体的平衡方程为理论依据推断出刚体在各种运动状态下能否处于平衡状态，并导出处于平衡状态所满足的运动学条件；同时对刚体在平面力系作用下平衡条件的等价条件作了证明。