关于振动模态参数识别的注记

回顾了关于整体拟合的分母多项式系数的争议,论证了Richardson文献中所提供的参数精度不高的原因并非源于Richardson的错误.指出一个经典考核算例的仿真传递函数生成公式不同于复模态理论提供的公式,讨论了两者之间的关系.表1,参9.     

Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Internal interactions within the human circadian system: the masking effect

Summary In the realm of human circadian rhythms, the masking effect is defined as the change in the course of deep body temperature induced by changes in the degree of physical activity, or by the alteration between sleep and wake. This effect is particularly obvious during internal desynchronization where the rhythms of deep body temperature, and the sleep-wake sleep-wake sleep cycle — i.e. one of the masking factors — run with different periods.Every sleep onset is accompanied by a rapid drop, and wake onset by a rapid rise in deep body temperature, each one with an overshoot of about 50% of the steady state variations. When rhythms are calculated, with the dominant temperature period as the screening period, exclusively from data obtained during sleep episodes, on the one hand, and from those obtained exclusively during wake, on the other, two average cycles emerge: the sleep temperature curve and the wake temperature curve. Both run in parallel but are separated by the masking effcct. As derived from many experiments, the mean masking effect amounts to 0.28±0.06°C. The masking effect also depends to some extent on the phase of the temperature rhtthm; it is larger than average around the temperature maximum and during the descending phase of the temperature cycle, where the alertness commonly is highest and the probability to sleep, in general, and the REM sleep propensity, in particular, are smaller than average. This also can be interpreted to indicate that the sleep temperature curve is phase advanced relative to the wake temperature curve; this, on the average, by 0.9±0.3 h.If the individually determined amount of masking is added to the temperature data obtained during sleep, or substracted from the temperature data obtained during wake, a temperature curve emerges that can be though of as being purified of the masking effect. Analyses of this artificial curve allow estimation of that part of the internal interactions uninfluenced by the masking effect. On the average, about half of the amount of interaction between the rhythm of sleep-wake and that of deep body temperature is explained by the masking effect, whereas the other half is oscillatory interaction. Both types of interaction are inherent and inseparable parts of the circadian clock mechanism, as can be deduced from model considerations.     

北京市SARS数学模型的建立与拟合

SARS对中国社会的发展产生了重大影响，本人经典的SIR模型为理论基础，以2003年4月21日至6月23日有关SARS的数据为参考资料，着重从教学的角度对SARS疫情进行了分析和拟合。结果表明，SIR模型能近似地描述SARS疫情的发展和变化。     

增长曲线模型关于共轭先验的BAYES分析

从贝叶斯观点利用共轭先验考查了增长曲线模型。得到了参数τ和协方∑的边缘后验分布，并在此基础上给出τ的后验估计、估计域和∑的后验估计。     

Semi‐Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve

We develop a semi‐structural model for forecasting inflation in the UK in which the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is augmented with a time series model for marginal cost. By combining structural and time series elements we hope to reap the benefits of both approaches, namely the relatively better forecasting performance of time series models in the short run and a theory‐consistent economic interpretation of the forecast coming from the structural model. In our model we consider the hybrid version of the NKPC and use an open‐economy measure of marginal cost. The results suggest that our semi‐structural model performs better than a random‐walk forecast and most of the competing models (conventional time series models and strictly structural models) only in the short run (one quarter ahead) but it is outperformed by some of the competing models at medium and long forecast horizons (four and eight quarters ahead). In addition, the open‐economy specification of our semi‐structural model delivers more accurate forecasts than its closed‐economy alternative at all horizons. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Steinitz class of elliptic curves with complex multilication

Let E be any elliptic curve having complex multiplication by the ring CK of integers of the quadratic number field K= Q(- D). Let H be the Hilbert class field of K. The Mordell-Weil group E(H) of H-rational points is a module over the Dedekind domain CK, its structure depends on its Steinitz class. Here the Steinits class is determined when D is any prime number. This result advances the result for the specific elliptic curves when D=10.A general theorem on structure of modules over Dedekind domain is also proposed.     

基于遗传算法和神经网络的远程减速机故障诊断系统的设计

通过对减速机故障形式的分析,采用BP神经网络建立故障诊断模型,利用遗传算法优化神经网络权值、阈值、网络结构,将遗传神经网络模型应用到远程减速机的故障诊断的设计中,比较单一的神经网络和遗传神经网络的训练误差曲线,得出遗传神经网络在训练速度和准确性上远远高于神经网络训练模型.     

桩极限承载力的Usher模型预测

为深化对桩承载性能的认识,选用生物领域的Usher生长曲线模型,对桩的桩顶荷载-桩顶沉降曲线(即Q-s曲线)进行拟合,并对其极限承载力进行预测.给出了Usher模型的建立与求解,并用于分析3根试桩(包括2根灌注桩、1根钢管桩)的实测资料.结果表明:Usher模型对3种类型的Q-s曲线有高的拟合精度;该模型拟合效果优于双曲线模型,特别是在曲线的末端;利用这些拟合方程式能对3种桩的极限承载力进行预测.     

非完整复曲线的坐标计算

复曲线两交点间未设置基线而采用两圆曲线的切线交叉连接,是高速公路中较特殊线路形式.本文通过对非完整复曲线的分析、研究,介绍了在进行此类复曲线放样前所用的坐标计算方法.