Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种测试圆度的新算法

轴承的外圆环、内圆环是否圆以及圆的程度如何,都会对使用轴承的机械设备产生很大的影响,但是它们是否圆,靠肉眼是很难观察出来的,我们只能用仪器进行测量,假设仪器测量的结果是准确的或者误差是确定的,由于算法不合理,可能本来是圆的但得到的结果却是不圆的,这样就把本来是合格的产品当作废品处理了,这是不应该出现的问题,本文提供了一种新的算法来解决此问题.     

两个数学建模问题的探讨

探讨了两个在教科书中作为例题的数学建模问题，一个是关于渔业生产的，另一个关于体育训练，对于前者，提出一个更为合理的解法；对于后者，则提出其中数学推导上的错漏并得出新的结论。     

耦合拟不动点定理

根据耦合拟不动点和上半连续算子的定义，讨论了在一定连续条件下集值混合单调算子的耦合拟不动点存在性问题，证明了，若A是非空弱闭值上半连续增算子，则A存在不动点以及若A是非空弱闭值上半连续混合单调算子，则A存在偶合拟不动点等结论．     

二阶非线性微分方程解的振动性与渐近性

讨论了一类二阶非线性微分方程解的振动性与渐近性,得到了该方程有界解的振动性与渐近性的新的充分条件,改进并推广了已有的结果。     

磁粉制动器的滑差功率研究

首先用理论方法对经过结构优化的磁粉制动器的滑差功率进行了计算，然后在自行设计、安装的实验台上对其进行了温升实验，所得理论计算值和实测值的一致性较好，在此基础上确定了它的额定滑差功率线图。     

一种高阶有理H-F插值逼近算子(Ⅲ)

本文构造了一类有理Hermite-Fejer插值算子,并给出了该算子和逼近阶。     

过阻尼振子系统中役使原理与绝热近似的关系及适用条件的探讨——线性情况(Ⅰ)

本文指出,《协同学》中将绝热近似与役使原理等同是不妥的,前者只是后者的特例。为此给出了役使原理的新表述,并探讨两者的关系。由此可将H.Haken的理论推广于非绝热近似的情形。 应用役使原理于过阻尼振子系统中,探讨绝热近似的适用条件,引进高级绝热近似的概念,并探讨其适用条件。由此可见考虑时滞。     

Changes in erythrocyte membrane lipid composition affect the transient decrease in membrane order which accompanies insulin receptor down-regulation

We have recently demonstrated, using electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy, that insulin receptor internalization in response to insulin incubation (down-regulation) in human erythrocytes is accompanied by a transient decrease in membrane order, as measured by the 2T order parameter. Since membrane lipids play such an important role in receptor internalization, we investigated the possible effects that an alteration of the normally-occurring lipid profile might have on down-regulation and the concomitant transient decrease in membrane order. Consequently, human erythrocytes enriched with cholesterol and erythrocytes from cirrhotic patients were examined, because both of these groups of cells have a higher cholesterol/phospholipid molar ratio (CH/PL) than controls. The 5-nitroxystearate spin label, which inserts into the lipid bilayer of cell membranes, was used to monitor changes in 2T for a 3-h period at 37°C. We report here that both cholesterol-enriched and cirrhotic erythrocytes do not down-regulate, as demonstrated by binding assays, and that they do not show the typical transient decrease in membrane order observed in controls. The results seem to indicate that a more ordered membrane inhibits internalization of the insulin receptor in erythrocytes, and that an increase in membrane disorder is necessary for insulin receptor down-regulation.     

自然伽玛曲线上的“海侵针”及其地质意义

自然伽玛曲线上的尖锥状～针状特高异常—“海侵针”,常可指示海侵作用与海相层的存在:“阵发式”海退与“振荡式”海退则是含煤岩系形成过程中两类常见的利于聚煤的海退类型.