Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

低温二维电子气体的比热容

运用闭路格林函数方法，得到了二维电子气体热力学势的表达式，同时还得到了新的交换项，这个交换项可以化为已知的由虚时方法得到的表达式，但在低温下它没有奇异性，这表明，虽然闭路格林函数方法和虚时方法在总体上是等价的，但在一些技术细节上前者优于后者，此外，从导出的热力学势出发计算了二维电子气体在低温下的比热容。     

基于代理的校园网计费管理系统

根据目前Cernet校园网典型结构,设计了一种适应性广、通用性强的校园网计费管理系统,探讨了使用代理服务器进行计费的主要功能和工作流程.     

高阶相关调制分类原理、判决门限与仿真研究

信号的自相关函数由傅里叶变换与其功率谱相联系。Beidas和Weber揭示了自相关函数与似然函数的关系 ,并建立了高阶相关调制分类方法。推导了用信号高阶相关代替似然比进行MFSK调制分类的基本原理 ,推导了截断似然比检测性能分析的基本公式 ,研究了高阶相关调制分类门限设置方法 ,进行了MFSK调制分类计算机仿真试验。结果表明该方法是可行的 ,并可望用于其它问题中。     

相对论多时间非平衡态系综

提出了在狭义相对论框架中合理的新的相对论多时间非平衡态系综．依此系综，多时间关联的非均匀体系和均匀体系的关联动力学理论可以严格地建立起来．它比传统的多时间系综理论简单、方便．     

老式油压材料试验机测试系统的技术改造

对老式油压材料试验机进行技术改造的方案是利用原试验机结构框架和加载系统。改进落后的测试系统使其达到现代科技水平。本文论述了进行改造的项目、工作原理、实施方法。方案一经买施．对拥有大量老式油压材料试验机的我国．其社会效益和经济效益都将是十分可观的。     

Analysis of Pyrolysates for Phenol Formaldehyde Resin by Py-GC/MS

Pyrolysis of phenol formaldehyde resin has been investigated by Pyrolysis Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectroscopy at the different temperatures from 500℃ to 750℃. Its composition of pyrclysates has been analyzed. Several compounds, especially benzene, toluene, p-xylene could only be formed above 500-550℃. Howerver, peak intensities for some pbend derivatives were decreased at the higher temperature. During pyrolysis, for thermo-setting phenol formaldehyde resins, polymeric chain scissions take place as a successive removal of the monomer units from the polymeric chain. The chain scissions are followed by secondary reactions, which leads to a variety of compounds. Addition reactions can also take place among the double-bond compounds during pyrolysis.     

驻波实验的计算机模拟

利用计算机进行驻波实验模拟,给出了驻波实验的计算机模拟源程序,为在计算机上进行物理实验教学、演示实验以及课件制作提供编程的依据.     

Using Oil Analysis to Study the Wear Condition of Bearing in Trunnion of Convertor During/After Run-in Period

1Introduction Convertorisoneofthemainequipmentofsteel making.Thebearingsinthetrunnionofconvertorarecharacterizedby low speed,heavy loadandhuge dimension.Theyrevolve slowlywhenmoltensteelisaddedoremptied.Theirlife expectancyis20years.Incasetheyexperiencefailurein operation,theoutputoftheconvertorandeventhatofthe wholeproductlinewouldbeaffectedandhugelosswouldbe resultedin.Therefore,itisveryimportanttomasterthe workingconditionsofthebearings.Vibrationandoilanalyses aretwomaintechniquestomonito…     

沉积盆地侵入岩区的异常“温度场、压力场和地球化学场”与油气的关系——以东营凹陷纯西辉长岩为例

通过岩石学、有机地球化学等分析 ,发现纯西辉长岩周围烃源岩具有有机质含量极低、高熟和裂缝发育以及油气比较丰富等特征 .研究表明 ,其根源是辉长岩形成的特殊温度场、压力场和地球化学场 ;辉长岩形成的异常高温大大促进了烃源岩热演化 ,并提高了生烃量 ;高压产生的大量裂缝为烃源岩排烃和油气聚集提供了通道和储集空间 ;而辉长岩带来的深源氢对烃源岩起到加氢作用 ,扩大了生烃量