Sea surface temperature records of core ZY2 from the central mud area in the South Yellow Sea during last 6200 years and related effect of the Yellow Sea Warm Current

Sea surface temperature (SST) records in the South Yellow Sea during the last 6200 years are reconstructed by the unsaturation index of long-chain alkenones (K 37 U ’) in sediment core ZY2 from the central mud area.The SST records varied between 14.1 and 16.5°C (15.6°C on average),with 3 phases:(1) A high SST phase at 6.2-5.9 cal ka BP;(2) A low and intensely fluctuating SST phase at 5.9-2.3 cal ka BP;and (3) A high and stable SST phase since 2.3 cal ka BP.Variation of the SST records is similar to intensity of the Kuroshio Current (KC),and corresponds well in time to global cold climate events.However,the amplitude of the SST response to cooling events was significantly different in different phases.The SST response to global cooling event was weak while the KC was strong;and the SST response was strong while the KC was weak.The difference in amplitude of the SST response is possibly caused by the modulation effect of the Yellow Sea Warm Current which acts as a shelf branch of the KC and a compensating current induced by the East Asia winter monsoon.The warm waters brought by the Yellow Sea Warm Current cushion the SST decrease induced by climate cooling,and both the Kuroshio and East Asian winter monsoon play important roles in the modulation mechanism.The SST records display a periodicity of 1482 years.The same period was found in the KC records,indicating that variation of the SST records in the central South Yellow Sea is strongly affected by KC intensity.The same period was also found in Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic and Arabian Sea sediment cores,showing a regional response of marine environmental variability in the East China Seas to that in the global oceans.     

The methodology of quantitative assess economic output of climate change

A method is introduced in this paper to study the effect of future climatic change on the economy. The researchers determine the economic output of climate change from historical data, and provide a method to quantitatively predict economic output of climate change by an economic-climatic model. A historical reciprocating examination is used to analyze output data for various crops in eight agricultural areas in China and meteorological data from 160 observatories in China from 1980 to 2000. The results show that the methods used are reasonable to a certain extent and good in application.     

Changes in physical features of Glacier No. 1 of the Tianshan Mountains in response to climate change

This study analyzes the changes in glacier zones and snow composition of Glacier No.1 in the Tianshan Mountains of China since 1961,and their possible relations with climate.It is found that precipitation dominated the snow composition and that air temperature and precipitation controlled the distribution of glacier zones,but interannual change in precipitation had a relatively large effect on glacier zones and snow composition during 1963–1981 (P10) and 1963–1989 (P11).However,during 1982–2007 (P20) and 19...     

A high-resolution environmental change record since 19 cal ka BP in Pumoyum Co,southern Tibet

A 380-cm-long sediment core was acquired from the deep water area of Pumoyum Co, southern Tibet. Twenty-five plant residue samples were selected, and organic carbon stable isotopes were obtained using the AMS ¹⁴C chronological method. The ¹⁴C age and carbon reservoir effect were calibrated with surface sedimentation rate measurements using ²¹⁰Pb dating. Results showed that the core sediment deposited over 19 cal ka BP. Based on a multi-proxy analysis of TOC and IC contents, grain size and pollen assemblage data, the palaeoclimatic evolution of Pumoyum Co was reconstructed since the last glacial. Pumoyum Co was a shallow lake prior to 16.2 cal ka BP; although the glacier around the lake began to melt due to increasing temperatures, climate was still cold and dry. In the interval of 16.2–11.8 cal ka BP, the sedimentary environment fluctuated drastically and frequently. Two cold-events occurred at 14.2 and 11.8 cal ka BP, and these may correspond to the Older Dryas and the Younger Dryas events, respectively. After 11.8 cal ka BP, Pumoyun Co developed into the deep lake as it is now. The lake water temperature was relatively lower at that time because of influx of cold water from glacial meltwater entering the lake. As a result, the multi-proxy indicators showed no sign of warm conditions. Comparisons between the sedimentary record of Pumoyum Co with that of other lakes of the same age in southern Tibet indicate a warmer climate following the last deglaciation influenced the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. These results imply that the southwest Asian monsoon gradually became stronger since the deglaciation during its expansion to the inner plateau. The glacial-supplied water of the lake responded sensitively to cold-events. The entire southern Tibet region was dominantly influenced climatically by the southwest Asian monsoon during the Holocene.     

楚雄市气候变化及对水资源的影响

利用楚雄市1961～2010年50 a的气候和水资源等资料,分析了楚雄市近半个世纪以来气候的变化及其对径流、水资源变化的影响.分析结果表明:50 a来楚雄市各季和年平均气温均呈上升趋势,年平均气温以0.33℃/10 a速率上升,冬季平均气温增暖速率最为显著;近50 a来楚雄市年降水量有增多的趋势,以21.26mm/10 a的速度在递增.春季和夏季降水量增加较多;而冬季和秋季平均降水量则呈缓慢增多的趋势.水资源总量、地表水径流量、地下水呈减少趋势.     

温室气体稳定目标下部门减排责任分解方法

为了探讨气候变化背景下温室气体排放权分摊机制这一研究难点,综述了温室气体减排责任分解方法的研究现状,遵循"共同但有区别的责任"思想并利用WRE稳定性廓线和IEA/SMP交通模型,开发了SMP-WRE模型。应用该模型建立了一种产业部门具体减排责任的分解方法,并以中国轻型车部门为例,展示了该方法的实现过程。结果表明:全球轻型车的基准排放是目标排放的2~4倍,说明轻型车部门实现450×10-6和550×10-6的CO2稳定水平难度很大。目标分解后的地区排放变化率欧美国家较小、中国较大,原因是欧美汽车市场规模饱和,而中国汽车正爆发式增加,排放增加不可避免。     

跳-斜度变点估计的强收敛速度

对至多只有一个跳-斜度变点的模型,利用滑窗方法研究了独立误差分布条件下变点估计的强、弱相合性,以及强、弱收敛速度等统计推断问题.     

京津冀地区耕地变化分析及未来趋势预测

利用京津冀地区耕地面积统计资料为基础,采用耕地资源变化率计算方法和灰色预测法,分析和预测了该地区耕地的变化及趋势.研究结果表明:1985-2007年京津冀地区耕地总面积呈波动下降趋势,总共减少924.3 k hm2,多年平均变化率为-0.59%.耕地的三种类型之中,旱地和水田面积几乎年年减少,多年平均变化率分别为-3.57%和-0.73%,而水浇地的面积在大部分年份都有所增加,多年平均变化率为0.85%.2020年,京津冀地区的耕地总量将从2007年的6 531.61 k hm2减小至6 164.4 k hm2,耕地总面积平均每年减少0.44%,即28.7 k hm2.旱地和水田将继续保持较高的减少率,平均每年分别减少2.57%和0.84%.而水浇地的预测结果为2007年至2020年间每年稍增0.17%.在未来的十几年中,尽管耕地减少的速率减缓,但是京津冀地区耕地保护的压力依然很大.     

秦岭地区土地利用/土地覆被变化趋势分析

对秦岭地区三期TM影像进行解译,通过建立土地利用转移矩阵和一套数理统计模型对土地利用/土地覆被变化进行分析.结果显示:1990～2007年间,秦岭地区以林草地为主,前期除建设用地增加外,其他用地面积有少量的减少.后期的变化较前期来说更明显,耕地急剧减小,林草地快速增长,建设用地和水域增加,未利用地减少.总体上来说,19...     

从工业文明走向生态文明的契机——气候危机的哲学反思

全球气候博弈的实质是各国在承认地球资源和承载能力有限的前提下力图在未来世界能源、资源分配和温室气体排放空间的分配中获得尽可能大的份额。美国与中国的个案分析表明:气候公地的悲剧源于博弈主体对于自身短期利益的追求及对人类根本利益的忽视。具体说来,发达国家受制于自由民主制度放纵的内部博弈,而发展中国家则更多的受制于国际体系的无政府状态与不平等现状下外部博弈引发的安全需求。气候危机将人类带入困境的同时也加速了人类从工业文明迈向生态文明的进程。公地悲剧的出路在于强化国家在应对气候方面的作用;加强转型时期政策的系统性;以政治上的预防原则对应吉登斯悖论;国际社会对于责任认定的公平化。