Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

老龄产业发展战略的思考

论述新世纪发展老龄产业的意义、作用、制约因素和内容．目的在于通过老龄产业的发展来解决日趋严重的人口老龄化问题；并运用实证分析法阐明经济发展、计划生育、社会安定与人类进步的关系。     

甲烷与水分子氢键相互作用的理论研究

使用Gaussioan94程序包，在B3LYP／6—311G**基组水平上，对甲烷(CH4)与水分子(H2O)之间的所有相互作用方式进行优化．通过电子布居分析，发现在电子给予体O原子和电子接受体H原子间存在氢键，氢键的键长约为0．2574nm．振动模式分析表明，只有一种加合物是稳定的，势能面也证实了这一点．     

ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL ECONOMY GROWTH WITH THE THEORY OF DIFFERENTIAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS

In order to describe the interrelation forces among different regions during the economic growth, this paper introduces and analyzes the dynamical system model with the theory of differential systems dynamics. A practical example based on a simplified model is given to analyze the dynamical process of Sichuan economy growth.     

p-可分解群的一个定理

极小子群在有限群的研究中占据着重要的地位．本文利用了极小子群的弱c-正规性刻画了极小子群对有限群构造的影响，得出了p-可分解群的一个结果．     

文山州人口素质现状与人才开发的几点思考

从文山州人口的受教育程度可以反映出，文山州目前的人口素质现状是令人担忧的，在此基础平台上，文山州人才资源的学历结构、地域分布、民族分布、行业分布等存在着严重的不平衡，这种状况，极大地制约着文山经济社会的发展。为此，开发文山人才资源，尤其是盘活文山现有人才资源就具有重要的战略意义。     

高等师范学生教师职业技能训练及培养模式新论

高等师范学生的教师职业技能训练,自国家1995年《教师资格条例》颁布以来,虽在全国有关高校一度出现好的势头,但很快被我国高校扩招的形势冲淡了,目前情况令人担忧。因此,在我国高等教育发展的新形势下,从宏观上构建高等师范学生教师职业技能培养模式应是当务之急。     

求解随机变量数字特征的两种有效方法

求解随机变量的数字特征是数理统计中的一个重要课题，本文利用泰勒级数和条件数学期望给出了正态分布数字特征的求解方法，并将所得结果做了适当的推广。     

与年龄相关的非线性时变种群系统的L2(Q)-解

本文讨论与年龄相关的非线性时变种群系统（P）的l^2（Q）－解，为进一步研究种群系统的最优控制问题提供了必要的理论基础．     

西藏公务员工作满意度调查与分析

通过对西藏公务员工作满意度的调查,分析影响西藏公务员工作满意度的主要因素以及工作满意度体现在人口统计变量上的差异,并对此提出相应的对策建议。