不确定条件下不同交货期窗口的Flow Shop调度

研究了具有不同交货期窗口的Flow Shop的提前／拖期调度问题，并考虑了处理时间的不确定性。采用三角模糊数表示不确定性信息，引入两种模糊运算，建立了问题的模糊规划模型，并采用“中间值最大隶属度”的算法将模糊规划模型转化为清晰的非线性规划模型。针对清晰的数学模型提出了基于遗传算法的优化方法，最小化对所有工件提前／拖期惩罚。最后，大量仿真实验验证了算法的有效性。     

Optimal Restoration Scheduling of Damaged Networks Under Uncertain Environment by Using Improved Genetic Algorithm

The purpose of this research is to propose an early restoration for lifeline systems after earthquake disasters. The previous researches show that the optimization of the restoration schedule by using genetic algorithm (GA) is powerful. However, those are not considering the uncertain environment after earthquake disasters. The circumstances of the damage at devastated areas are very changeable due to the aftershock, fire disaster and bad weather. In addition, the restoring works may delay by unexpected accidents. Therefore, it is necessary to obtain the restoration schedule which has robustness, because the actual restoring works could not progress smoothly under the uncertain environment. GA considering uncertainty (GACU) can treat various uncertainties involved, but it is difficult to obtain the robust schedule. In this study, an attempt is made to develop a decision support system of the optimal restoration scheduling by using the improved GACU.     

钢筋砼构件抗裂失效不定性及其可靠度模糊概率分析

本文利用概率论和模糊数学．分析影响结构构件抗裂失效的不定性因素．将构件抗裂失效认为是一复杂模糊随机事件．并提出了相应的可靠度模糊概率分析模型．最后本文结合算例介绍了用此模型计算抗裂失效概率Ｐ或可靠指标β的具体方法和步骤，其结果满足工程设计要求．     

B2C电子商务质量不确定性定价机制设计及其优化

在不确定性定价下,电子商务企业事先承诺,当提供的产品或服务为劣等质量时将给予顾客一定的价格折扣,消费者根据公开可获得的历史数据来确定企业产品质量表现概率并做出购买决策。研究了企业的私有信息和企业与市场在产品质量信念上的区别对定价方案选择的重要作用,表明质量不确定性定价是降低质量不确定性在B2C电子商务中负面影响的有用机制。当市场低估了企业的表现时,不确定性定价合约是有价值的;对于企业的最优方案是:对不良表现提供完全价格折扣,而对合格表现相应地给予更高的价格。     

没有brick-wall的黑洞熵

采用由广义不确定关系得到的新的态密度方程，研究了球对称退化背景下黑洞的熵．结果表明：利用新的态密度方程，不通过任何截断可以消除brick-wall模型出现的发散，进而得到了黑洞熵与黑洞视界面积成正比的结果．     

两块平行全反射平面之间的电磁真空涨落

考虑了两块平行的全反射平面之间的真空电磁场涨落，计算了真空涨落对带电试验粒子运动的影响，发现两块板的真空涨落对试验粒子运动的影响比一块板的影响更明显、更容易测量。     

控制系统仿真的新问题：模型不确定性

本文从解决模型不确定性的角度研究了控制系统仿真问题。首先，讨论了把模型不确定性引入控制系统仿真的必要性，然后阐述了一种全新的观点：控制系统仿真应该是鲁棒辨识与鲁棒控制的有机结合     

物理实验结果的不确定度表示

讨论了物理实验教学中引入不确定度的必要性及其评定方法，并在一个实例中分析了实验结果的不确定度表示方法。     

地区分销系统的成本优化模型及应用

研究需求不确定下由一个地区分销中心和多个零售商组成的地区分销系统，系统中地区分销中心和多个零售商都采用周期检查的最大库存水平策略(order-up-to Level policy)．首先，生成了最终顾客的不确定需求数据．然后，分别给出了有限计划水平内地区分销中心和各个零售商的成本模型，在此基础上建立了地区分销系统的独立决策优化模型和联合决策优化模型，并给出了这两类模型的求解方法．最后，通过算例表明，该地区分销系统存在“第一最优”(first-best)解，即零售商所做出的最优决策从整个地区分销系统的角度看也是最优的。     

To combine or not to combine? issues of combining forecasts

This paper addresses issues such as: Does it always pay to combine individual forecasts of a variable? Should one combine an unbiased forecast with one that is heavily biased? Should one use optimal weights as suggested by Bates and Granger over twenty years ago? A simple model which accounts for the main features of individual forecasts is put forward. Bayesian analysis of the model using noninformative and informative prior probability densities is provided which extends and generalizes results obtained by Winkler (1981) and compared with non-Bayesian methods of combining forecasts relying explicitly on a statistical model for the individual forecasts. It is shown that in some instances it is sensible to use a simple average of individual forecasts instead of using Bates and Granger type weights. Finally, model uncertainty is considered and the issue of combining different models for individual forecasts is addressed.