Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄喉鹀（Emberiza elegans）发声控制中枢─—中脑背内侧核的纤维

用ＨＲＰ顺、逆行追踪方法，研究黄喉中脑背内侧核的中枢联系。将ＨＲＰ微电泳入中脑背内侧核，在同侧古纹状体粗核内见到密布的逆行标记细胞，在同侧延髓舌下神经核气管鸣管部出现了密集的标记终未，上述结果表明，中脑背内侧核接受古纹状体粗核的传入投射，由它发出的纤维投射至延髓舌下神经核气管鸣管部．因此中脑背内侧核是发声控制通络中的重要中继站。     

中国数学史断代研究的一项新成果：—《明清数学史论文集》简介

本文简介梅荣照主编的《明清数学史论文集》一书，对中国数学史开展断代专题研究，是我国数学史界继承并发展李俨、钱宝琮、严郭杰先生研究成果的宏大计划，持续近三十年，历来为国际科学史界所重视，文集收入论文15篇、附录2篇，其中严敦杰先生遗作7篇，本文对15篇论文逐一作了简介。     

网络环境对高校图书馆采购工作的新要求

阐述了网络环境下图书馆采购信息源的变化，提出了网络环境下对图书馆采购人员综合素质的要求，以及网络时代图书馆的采购原则。     

The Challenging Topics and Future Directions of the Research in Limnology and Watershed Sciences

Based on reviewing the problems in limnology and watershed sciences in meeting the national demands and the development of theories and methodology, this paper proposed some challenging topics to the sciences, covering the process of lake evolution and the quantitative analysis of human impacts, in -lake nutrient cycling an biogeo-chemical process, the process and mechanisms of material flow in lake-watershed system, digital watershed and the modeling of the surface process of lake -watershed, and ecosystem health and scientific management of lake-watershed.     

硅、铋离子鉴定方法的探讨

本文对现用叙材中硅、铋离子的鉴定方法进行了改进,改进后的鉴定方法既简单快速,又灵敏可靠.     

The behavior of the homozygous and heterozygous sub-types of rats which are genetically-selected for diabetes insipidus: A comparison with Long Evans and Wistar stocks

Several aspects of spontaneous and conditioned behavior (food and water intake, locomotion and emotionality, passive and active avoidance acquisition and retention) of standard (albino and pigmented) rats, and rats heterozygous (HEDI) and homozygous (HODI) for diabetes insipidus, are reviewed. As would be expected, HODI rats have been repeatedly found to consume far more fluid than either HEDI or control rats. Pigmented rats appear to be more active than albinos. HODI rats exhibit less marked emotional responses than do control rats, among which the pigmented ones exhibit the highest emotionality. Light aversion is more evident in albino than in pigmented rats. No differences are found among HEDI, HODI and normal Long Evans rats. It is quite difficult to provide a clear-cut statement concerning inter-strain differences in passive avoidance behavior, possibly because of the variety of techniques employed. In any case, HODI rats do not perform worse than normal controls do. In one-way active avoidance paradigms, pigmented rats perform better than albinos, and the performance of HODI rats does not differ from that of controls. In two-way avoidance paradigms, albinos appear to outperform pigmented rats. Once again, there are no obvious differences between HODI and control animals.In addition to indicating that HODI rats may actually be less emotional than the other groups of rats reviewed here, the studies described once again fail to confirm the previously alleged functions of vasopressin in memory consolidation.     

高校年轻干部培养选拔和教育的几点思考

培养和选拔德才兼备的年轻干部是高校改革和发展的重要保证。做好这项工作，必须转变观念，严格把握基本素质要求，健全用人机制，加强教育管理。     

牡丹与寒梅:以两种花卉阐释唐宋士人的差异

在中国古代,历来有花卉鸟兽抒情明志的传统。在特定历史时期中,某种自然物象同特定的情感和意义之间建立了相对稳固的关系,经过社会的认同,物象便转化为人的情感符号而失去了自身客观性质的特征而成为时代的一种标志。牡丹与寒梅就是唐宋两代士人给予充分观照的审美对象,前者艳绚丽、神采外放,代表了唐代建功立业、开张扬厉的时代精神;后者瞿瘦淡雅,外枯中膏,可与宋人淡泊收敛,质朴深微的心态相契合。唐人爱牡丹,宋人重寒梅,从两种花卉的分析中,可对唐宋的时代精神加以阐释。     

浅谈如何做好群众工作

通过回顾党的历史上关于群众工作的一系列决策决定,指出领导干部要进一步提高对做好群众工作重要性的认识;对做好群众工作中领导干部的要求做出阐述。