The impact of economic growth in mortality modelling for selected OECD countries

The health of a population is affected by social, environmental, and economic factors. Pension providers and consultants, insurance companies, government agencies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how the economic growth will impact on the life expectancy of their population. Therefore, changes in death rates may occur due to climate and economic changes. In this study, we extend a previous study into excess deaths as a result of climate change to also provide a comprehensive investigation of the impact of economic changes using annual female and male data for 5 developed OECD countries. We find that there is strong negative relationship between mortality index, and climate and economic proxies. This model shows to provide better fitting and forecasting results both for females and males, and for all countries studied.     

双胎妊娠149例临床分析

目的：探讨双胎妊娠并发症的防治及最佳分娩方式．方法：对我院2003年1月至2006年12月期间住院分娩的149例双胎妊娠病例进行回顾性分析，并与同期住院分娩的8921例单胎妊娠做比较．结果：双胎妊娠的发生率为1．64％，妊高征、贫血和早产等发病率显著高于单胎妊娠，出生孕周及体重是影响围产儿预后的主要因素，经阴道分娩的双胎妊娠围产儿死亡率明显高于剖宫产者．结论：积极预防和治疗双胎妊娠并发症，选择合适的分娩时机和分娩方式对于降低双胎妊娠的围产儿病死率有重要意义．     

上海城市化过程中人群健康对环境胁迫的响应

对上海1990年至1999年城市转型期间全市、城区以及郊县居民的主要疾病死亡率进行分析,构造一个衡量城区居民和郊县居民人群健康对不同环境胁迫的响应指标“主要疾病相对死亡比”(RMR).结果表明循环系病、肿瘤、呼吸系病是威胁人群健康的前3位疾病,循环系病、肿瘤年死亡率居高不下逐步上升,呼吸系病年死亡率有所下降.城区和郊县居民之间主要疾病死亡率和主要疾病相对死亡比的差异,一定程度上反映了人群健康对不同环境胁迫的响应,但随着城市化进程加剧及其不断向郊县扩张,城区居民和郊县居民对环境胁迫的响应趋于一致,这也反映了城区与郊县环境的差别日渐缩小.将常规环境监测数据和历史流行病普查数据结合起来,可揭示环境胁迫对人群健康的累积效应,并为预测潜在环境风险提供基本资料.     

Interaction of salicylate and noise results in mortality of rats

Summary Survival as a function of salicylate dose and the intensity of environmental noise was investigated in 150 adult female pigmented rats. Rats were assigned to groups (n=6/group) defined by combinations of salicylate levels from 0- (saline) to 300 mg/kg, injected subcutaneously, and noise levels from ambient noise to 98 dB SPL, presented daily for 10-h periods for up to 17 days. Mortality occurred in groups exposed to the higher combinations of salicylate and noise.     

一例引起青石斑鱼严重死亡的病因探讨

在福建罗源一例寄生虫,细胞,病毒综合感染引起的青石斑鱼Epinephelus awoara严重死亡的病例中,发现一种寄生于病鱼脾脏的病毒可能是引起死亡的主要致病因子,经电镜观察,这种病毒粒子为多面球状体,其平面观为六角形,大小约200nm,类似于真鲷虹彩病毒（Iridovirus)和鳜病毒（Siniperca chuastsi virus),青石斑鱼感染该病毒而引起严重死亡的病例的目前尚未见报导。     

论寿险保单贴现的市场价格风险（英文）

讨论了寿险保单贴现作为投资产品的市场价格风险.用市场价格风险作为投资保单市场的参考,讨论如何选择保单等.事实上,市场价格风险相对较低,可能是最近几年寿险贴现市场下降的原因之一.     

不同时期美国白蛾蛹的死亡率研究

通过对聊城地区美国白蛾越冬代和第一代蛹进行死亡率、寄生率、性别比例的调查统计,研究了美国白蛾Hlyphantria cunea(Drury)的发生危害程度与不同时期蛹死亡率之间的关系.结果表明:2011年越冬蛹的死亡率比2010年上升27.1%、寄生率上升6%,雌雄性别比例由1.22下降至0.89,主要的寄生性昆虫天敌有舞毒蛾黑瘤姬蜂Coccygomimus disparis(Viereck)及两种未鉴定的昆虫,分别隶属于姬小蜂科和蝇科,并以舞毒蛾黑瘤姬蜂为优势种;2011年第一代蛹死亡率较越冬代低41%,未发现寄生天敌.分析认为美国白蛾有逐步被本地生态系统同化现象,可能与天敌数量种类增多、生态系统生态补偿机制等有关.     

缺血性肠病20例临床分析

目的分析缺血性肠病的临床特点,为急腹症、便血患者的治疗提供临床经验.方法收集2006年1月—2010年1月住院的经结肠镜、全腹CT、腹部彩超、血管造影等检查确诊的符合缺血性肠病临床特点的患者20例.结果5例患者进行手术切除治疗,其他均行内科保守治疗;1例在手术后3 d因肠坏死、感染性休克死亡,1例放弃治疗.结论对于中老...     

A stochastic proportional hazard model for the force of mortality

In order to avoid ‘frailty’ in deterministic assumptions concerning survival law, in this paper stochastic volatility in the force of mortality is considered. In particular, mortality rates are studied by means of a stochastic model of CIR type. A method for estimating its parameters is presented and an example of application, based on simulations of the process, is shown. Empirical results and comparison with a traditional model illustrate predictive performance and the flexibility of the model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of climate change on human health: Some international implications

The objective of this study is to discuss the potential impact of a global warming on various aspects of human health. Changes in heat-related mortality are estimated for four countries: the United States, Canada, the People's Republic of China and Egypt. In addition, the potential confounding impact of increased air pollution is considered. Finally, a framework to analyze two vector-borne diseases, onchocerciasis and malaria, which may spread if temperatures increase, is discussed. Our findings suggest that heat-related mortality is estimated to rise significantly in all four countries if the earth warms, with the greatest impacts in China and Egypt. The most sensitive areas are those with intense but irregular heat waves. In the United States, air pollution does not appear to impact daily mortality significantly when severe weather is present, although it seems to have a slight influence when weather conditions are not stressful.