Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.     

Titius—Bode定则的发展,天体量子论和泛量子理论

太阳系的Titius-Bode定则可以发展为r_n=an~2,令α_1=0.042,n=3,4,5,6是类地行星;令α_2=1.2,n=2,3,4,5,6是类木行星。此时海王星、冥王星都是规则的,且适用于大多数卫星。由此可以完全类比于玻尔原子模型,并得出太阳系量子常数H=(αGM_⊙)~(1/2)和天体薛定谔方程。这样距离规则是行星演化时统计性的结果,宇宙中应普遍存在波粒二象性和形式相似而量子常数各不相同的泛量子理论。     

水分子振动逆问题研究

在ＨＯＨ角弯曲柔度极大的条件下，计算得到了能完全准确预测Ｄ＿２Ｏ分子简正频率的Ｈ＿２Ｏ分子柔度，并讨论了Ｈ＿２Ｏ分子的简正模式。     

Simulation and Experimental Analysis of Super High-Speed Grinding of Ductile Material

This study aims to reduce the work-affected layer of the machined surface by carrying out the grinding at the speed over static pr o pagation speed of plastic wave of ductile materials and also aims to clarify suc h super high-speed machining mechanism.This paper reports on the result obtain ed through the molecular dynamics simulations and experiments on the super-spee d grinding below and beyond static propagation speed of aluminum.From the simul ation results,it is verified that the plastic deformation ...     

反馈网络中电位器对调节器性能的影响

通过对各种类型的调节器中含有电位器时传递函数的求解分析,得出接入电位器后对调节器的比例放大系数、微分时间常数及积分时间常数的影响结果,并使多种调节器在形式上得到了统一,根据需要可方便地调节电位器使其性能达到设计的需要.     

拓扑分子格的弱分离公理

本文是文［１］的继续，我们以Ｑ－远域为工具，首先引入和研究了拓扑分子格的ＳＴｉ分离公理（ｉ＝－１，０，１，２，３，４）。其次我们引入了Ｓ－不定序同态和Ｓ－同胚序同态等概念，给出了它们的若干特征性质。最后我们得到了各种ＳＴｉ分离公理是Ｓ－同胚序同态下保持不变的性质。     

Molecular dynamics study on the structure I helium hydrate

A 368- water molecule structure I gas hydrate, encased by the number of helium (He) molecules ranging from two to twenty-two, are calculated by molecular dynamical simulations. The potential TIP4P (transferable intermolecular potentical with four sites) is used for water interactions and Lennard-Jones for He-He and He-water interactions. He molecules do not affect the water lattice and can stabilize the hydrate when their concentration is small. A trough signature of He encased is found at 80～90 meV in the phonon density of states. He molecules prefer to be more off-center in 51262 cages. Heavier isotope He are energetically favorable to be filled in cages.     

不对称D—A反应区域选择性及其理论解析

本文以教学研究为基础,系统研究不对称D—A反应区域选译性规律,并运用前线分子轨道理论,采用图解量子化学方法予以理论解析。     

Superhydrophobicity on Micro-and Nanostructured Polyolefin Surfaces:an Experimental and Theoretical Study

1 Results Simultaneous micro-and nanostructuring was prepared on polyolefin surfaces by injection molding.The molds were made of electropolished aluminum foil where the micropatterns were structured with a custom made robot.Nanopatterns were subsequently created on the molds by oxidizing the aluminum surface electrochemically in polyprotic acid.The preparation technique allowed simultaneous control of the dimensions of the micro-and nanostructures.Structuring has a remarkable effect on the contact angle...