Testing Interval Forecasts: A GMM‐Based Approach

This paper proposes a new evaluation framework for interval forecasts. Our model‐free test can be used to evaluate interval forecasts and high‐density regions, potentially discontinuous and/or asymmetric. Using a simple J‐statistic, based on the moments defined by the orthonormal polynomials associated with the binomial distribution, this new approach presents many advantages. First, its implementation is extremely easy. Second, it allows for a separate test for unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage hypotheses. Third, Monte Carlo simulations show that for realistic sample sizes our GMM test has good small‐sample properties. These results are corroborated by an empirical application on SP500 and Nikkei stock market indexes. It confirms that using this GMM test leads to major consequences for the ex post evaluation of interval forecasts produced by linear versus nonlinear models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

回复与再结晶退火对新型HSn701黄铜组织及性能的影响

设计了一种新型HSn70-1黄铜合金,其冷拉拔加工率为55%.应用偏光显微镜、X射线衍射仪、扫描电子显微镜、显微硬度计、万能材料试验机和电化学工作站等设备,研究了不同的退火温度对新型合金显微组织和性能的影响.结果表明：加入少量Sn,Al,P,Ni合金元素构成了新型HSn70-1合金,合金元素以固溶体的形式存在于晶粒内部,其组织为α单相;合金在不同温度下保温2 h,200℃时发生应变时效,300~450℃为再结晶过程,450~550℃为晶粒长大阶段,550~600℃晶粒基本完全长大.随着退火温度的升高,合金的硬度、抗拉强度和屈服强度逐渐降低并趋于缓慢,其伸长率变化相反;合金自腐蚀电流密度、失重率逐渐降低并趋于稳定;开路电位逐渐变大,最后趋于稳定,新型HSn70-1黄铜的耐腐蚀性逐渐变好.     

农村初中英语阅读理解的实验研究——不同生词密度与主题熟悉性对阅读的影响

阅读材料的生词密度及主题熟悉性两因素对农村初中英语阅读理解有影响。实验结果表明:(1)生词密度对于阅读理解有较大影响,生词密度越大,阅读理解越差;(2)主题的熟悉性对于阅读理解也有较大影响,内容越不熟悉,阅读理解越差;(3)生词密度与主题熟悉性之间存在显著的交互作用;(4)在各种处理水平上,男女生的阅读成绩不存在显著的差异。本研究结果不仅证实了生词密度与主题熟悉性对阅读理解的影响,而且对于阅读教学也提出了几点有益的启示。     

微波辅助萃取的微波吸收系数与吸收功率密度

微波吸收系数和吸收功率密度是反映微波辅助萃取效率的两个重要参量,前者代表了溶液对微波能的整体吸收比率,后者代表了溶液中某一点处微波能转化为热能的强度.文中根据微波在介质中的传播规律,导出了微波吸收系数与溶液复介电常数间的关系式;并以微波与物质相互作用的基本原理为基础,导出了微波吸收功率密度与物质复介电常数以及空间位置间的量化关系式.所得结论可为微波辅助萃取中溶剂的选择以及特定溶剂中微波频率的选择提供理论参考.     

Studies on induction hardening of powder-metallurgy-processed Fe-Cr/Mo alloys

Induction hardening of dense Fe-Cr/Mo alloys processed via the powder-metallurgy route was studied. The Fe-3Cr-0.5Mo, Fe-1.5Cr-0.2Mo, and Fe-0.85Mo pre-alloyed powders were mixed with 0.4wt%, 0.6wt%, and 0.8wt% C and compacted at 500, 600, and 700 MPa, respectively. The compacts were sintered at 1473 K for 1 h and then cooled at 6 K/min. Ferrite with pearlite was mostly observed in the sintered alloys with 0.4wt% C, whereas a carbide network was also present in the alloys with 0.8wt% C. Graphite at prior particle boundaries led to deterioration of the mechanical properties of alloys with 0.8wt% C, whereas no significant induction hardening was achieved in alloys with 0.4wt% C. Among the investigated samples, alloys with 0.6wt% C exhibited the highest strength and ductility and were found to be suitable for induction hardening. The hardening was carried out at a frequency of 2.0 kHz for 2-3 s. A case depth of 2.5 mm was achieved while maintaining the bulk (interior) hardness of approximately HV 230. A martensitic structure was observed on the outer periphery of the samples. The hardness varied from HV 600 to HV 375 from the sample surface to the interior of the case hardened region. The best combination of properties and hardening depth was achieved in case of the Fe-1.5Cr-0.2Mo alloy with 0.6wt% C.     

金红石TiO2(011)表面的理论研究进展

基于密度泛函理论 (DFT) 的第一性原理 (First-principles) 计算方法,就金红石TiO₂(011)表面在理论方面的研究进展做了介绍.首先,通过阐述研究金红石TiO₂(011)表面的必要性和实验在其结构方面的研究进展,介绍了金红石TiO₂(011)表面的电子结构和光学性质,指出并验证了该表面对可见光有较强的响应能力.随后,介绍了金红石TiO₂(011)表面的缺陷和杂质,指出吸附H原子和形成O缺陷后还能显著增强其在红外区的红外吸收.在此基础上,不仅从理论上提供了一些传统实验所无法提及的数据资料,还弥补了相关实验在微观领域研究中的不足.最后,就目前金红石TiO₂(011)表面研究中存在的问题做了展望,指出金红石TiO₂(011)表面各种表面现象的微观本质是未来研究的重点内容.     

基于一类二元多小波函数的密度估计

基于独立同分布的随机样本提出了一类二元多小波密度估计的方法。首先,给出了线性多小波估计器;然后,在Besov球（B_p,m^s（M））上给出了线性估计在积分均方误差（MISE）意义下的收敛上界,并给予证明;最后,通过仿真和实例数据进行实验验证,说明方法和估计的有效性。     

R型半胱氨酸体系电荷转移百分数的理论计算

采用密度泛函理论中的CAM-B3LYP方法, 在6-31G(d)基组水平上优化气相条件下R型半胱氨酸(R-Cys)分子的几何构型, 理论研究电子激发过程中R-Cys体系片段间的电荷转移特征, 并基于弛豫与非弛豫激发态密度计算片段间的电荷转移百分数. 结果表明: 对于SH片段, S0到S3的电荷转移百分数为57.96%; 对于COOH片段, S0到S1~S5各激发态的电荷转移百分数均为负值, 二者电荷转移的定性结果一致; 对于NH2片段, S0到S1和S4的电荷转移百分数分别为6.98%和31.45%.     

石墨烯在锂离子电池材料中大有可为

锂离子电池是一种典型的可充电电池,在储能技术领域占主导地位,应用极为广泛。近年来,科技发展对锂离子电池提出了更高要求,包括高能量密度、高安全稳定性等,驱动着电池材料与结构不断创新发展。研制石墨烯基复合正极负极材料,是极为活跃的方向。在此,对锂离子电池的结构、面临的突出挑战以及石墨烯基正极和负极材料研究前沿进行了介绍,重点围绕石墨烯增强电极材料电学特性的基本原理和复合材料制备技术作了阐述,也提出了未来发展动向。     

LNQD样本最近邻密度估计的相合性

本文在LNQD样本下研究最近邻密度估计的相合性,给出弱相合性、强相合性、一致强相合性以及它们的收敛速度的充分条件,同时研究了失效率函数估计的一致强相合性。