Paternal allocation of sequestered plant pyrrolizidine alkaloid to eggs in the danaine butterfly,Danaus gilippus

Summary Pyrrolizidine alkaloid sequestered by adult maleDanaus gilippus from plants is transferred in large measure to the female at mating, and by the female to the eggs. The eggs, presumably, are protected as a result. The male's courtship pheromone, danaidone, derived from the sequestered alkaloid, may function to advertise the male's alkaloid-donating capacity.Acknowledgments. Paper Nr. 89 of the series Defense Mechanisms of Arthropods. Study supported by NIH (Grants AI-02908 and AI-12020; Predoctoral Traineeship to DED), Hatch funds (191-7416), the Bache Fund (National Academy of Sciences, to DED), and the Theodore Roosevelt Memorial Fund (American Museum of Natural History, to DED). We thank M. Weingarner and J. Miller forD. gilippus collection, J. Boggan for technical assistance, and the staff of the Archbold Biological Station, Lake Placid, Florida, for assistance and hospitality. One of us (DED) is indebted to M. D. Achey, who by demonstrating nuptial cardenolide transfer in the monarch butterfly [Honors Thesis, Amherst College, Amherst, Massachusetts (1979)] raised the possibility that other plant metabolites might be similarly transferred in danaines.Deceased July, 1985. This paper is affectionately dedicated to his memory.     

Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle

Four methods of model selection—equally weighted forecasts, Bayesian model‐averaged forecasts, and two models produced by the machine‐learning algorithm boosting—are applied to the problem of predicting business cycle turning points with a set of common macroeconomic variables. The methods address a fundamental problem faced by forecasters: the most useful model is simple but makes use of all relevant indicators. The results indicate that successful models of recession condition on different economic indicators at different forecast horizons. Predictors that describe real economic activity provide the clearest signal of recession at very short horizons. In contrast, signals from housing and financial markets produce the best forecasts at longer forecast horizons. A real‐time forecast experiment explores the predictability of the 2001 and 2007 recessions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the Predictive Content of Autoregression Residuals: A Semiparametric,Copula‐Based Approach to Time Series Prediction

This paper proposes an adjustment of linear autoregressive conditional mean forecasts that exploits the predictive content of uncorrelated model residuals. The adjustment is motivated by non‐Gaussian characteristics of model residuals, and implemented in a semiparametric fashion by means of conditional moments of simulated bivariate distributions. A pseudo ex ante forecasting comparison is conducted for a set of 494 macroeconomic time series recently collected by Dees et al. (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2007; 22: 1–38). In total, 10,374 time series realizations are contrasted against competing short‐, medium‐ and longer‐term purely autoregressive and adjusted predictors. With regard to all forecast horizons, the adjusted predictions consistently outperform conditionally Gaussian forecasts according to cross‐sectional mean group evaluation of absolute forecast errors and directional accuracy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种新的异构无线接入网垂直切换方法

为了提高异构无线网络中垂直切换的准确度、减少连接掉线,提出了一种新的垂直切换方法.该方法改进了基于RSS的切换触发机制,并且采用基于模糊逻辑的归一化量化决策算法,从可用的接入网中选择最优的切换目标网络.为验证方法的可行性,采用由UMTS和WLAN构成的仿真场景.仿真结果表明,提出的方法通过平衡用户的偏好、网络状态和系统性能,有效地选择了最优的网络;同时,在垂直切换次数和切换掉话率方面优于其他方法.     

混合核函数对支持向量机分类性能的改进

通过对核矩阵的计算和研究,从理论上对常用的核函数进行了评估.在此基础上,通过实验仿真证实了通过优选后的核函数所组成的混合核函数对支持向量机分类性能的改善,为核函数的选择提供了参考.     

高光谱遥感图像最优波段选择方法的研究进展与分析

随着成像光谱仪的发展日益成熟,高光谱遥感图像的研究已进入到一个新的阶段--对获取的高光谱数据进行有效处理和利用的阶段。目前的处理方法主要集中在对高光谱图像的数值分析处理上,比如大气校正、降低数据维数、信息提取、分类与目标探测等方面。高光谱图像相邻的波段之间一般具有较大的相关性,并不是所有的波段对于后续处理都有着同等的重要性,通过选择最优波段而组成新的高光谱图像空间,在不损失重要信息的条件下可以代表其他波段的信息。因而需要在更合理的数学模型的指导下,按照一定的准则,来决定最佳波段的选择问题。对目前国内外高光谱图像的各种波段选择方法进行了综合归纳和分析,力图为高光谱图像处理寻找突破点,加强此领域的研究力度。     

Nd:YAG激光器横模选择的实验研究

本文用简单的方法测量了Nd:YAG棒的热焦距和小信号增益系数;提出了Nd:YAG连续激光器选择基横模的有效设计方法,并对这种选模技术作了实验研究,最后从理论和实验上证实,采用平—平腔加小孔尤阑选择基横模,必须根据热焦距和小信号增益系数正确设计谐振腔参数,否则加小孔光阑是徒劳无益的。     

马惠线储罐沉积水中常用管线钢的腐蚀性对比

【目的】通过腐蚀评价进行合理选材,预防新建长输原油管道内腐蚀。【方法】通过腐蚀失重实验,研究X42、X52、X60、X65和X70共5种常用管线钢在马惠线储罐沉积水中的腐蚀行为,并结合SEM和XPS表面分析技术分析其腐蚀产物特性。【结果】随着温度的升高,5种管线钢腐蚀速率先升高后降低,在48℃时腐蚀速率最高。随着流速的增加,腐蚀速率先升高后降低,在流速为0.18m/s时腐蚀速率最大。在静态下,不同钢级管线钢腐蚀速率差别不大,钢级较高的管材点蚀倾向性较高;而在流动的腐蚀环境中,钢级较高的管材耐蚀性相对较高。【结论】综合考虑管线钢的耐腐蚀、耐冲蚀和耐点蚀性能,在马惠线内腐蚀环境中建议选用X60和X65钢。     

Improving moving average trading rules with boosting and statistical learning methods

We present a system for combining the different types of predictions given by a wide category of mechanical trading rules through statistical learning methods (boosting, and several model averaging methods like Bayesian or simple averaging methods). Statistical learning methods supply better out‐of‐sample results than most of the single moving average rules in the NYSE Composite Index from January 1993 to December 2002. Moreover, using a filter to reduce trading frequency, the filtered boosting model produces a technical strategy which, although it is not able to overcome the returns of the buy‐and‐hold (B&H) strategy during rising periods, it does overcome the B&H during falling periods and is able to absorb a considerable part of falls in the market. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

改进的模糊一致矩阵决策方法及其应用

对基于模糊一致矩阵的决策方法目前尚存在的不足之处,如模糊优先关系矩阵的元素不能体现相应两个对象之间优劣的差异程度、满足条件a的最小值不容易确定、计算优度值进行单指标排序的方法有待改进等进行了分析,从模糊优先关系矩阵的构造、模糊一致矩阵的转化、排序方法等方面对基于模糊一致矩阵的决策方法进行了改进.将改进后的决策方法用于方案优选的实际问题,进行实证分析.分析结果表明,改进后的决策方法能更好地反映参评对象的实际情况.