高校图书馆大规模馆藏精准迁移模式探讨--以华北电力大学图书馆为例

书库藏书迁移的运作主要在于精心准备和周密筹划。详细介绍了华北电力大学图书馆利用汇文文献信息服务系统的强大分析功能并结合Excel软件的使用技巧,实现大规模馆藏迁移精准排架工作的经验。     

瓦克曼的技术女性主义思想评析

朱迪·瓦克曼在批判并借鉴技术社会学和传统女性主义技术理论的基础上,提出了技术女性主义主张。这一思想的理论前提是对技术决定论和本质主义性别观的解构;实质在于强调技术与性别的相互形塑;目标是试图避免陷入技术恐惧与技术崇拜的困境,并消解性别身份差异性与政治立场统一性之间的冲突及其给女性主义政治实践带来的挑战。     

公理·规则·公德——儒家私德与墨家公德之伦理辨析

通过对孔孟儒家私德伦理与墨子墨家公德伦理的比较研究,发现科学理性之缺失是儒家私德伦理陷入现代困境及其深层悖论的根源;而墨家科学理性的优势,在其兼相爱和交相利公德伦理体系建构中,起到了价值观和方法论的奠基作用。并指出:规则是社会公德的核心,遵循和崇尚规则以及公平竞争和合作,既是一种科学精神,又是一种公德精神,在当今中国社会发展和公德建设中亟待振兴。     

关于构建和谐社会若干问题的思考

构建社会主义和谐社会是新一届领导集体提出的重要战略思想,这具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。本文采用社会学方法,对构建和谐社会应注意的五个基本问题展开论证。对构建社会主义和谐社会提出了自己的一些看法。     

Correcting the January optimism effect

Each month, various professional forecasters give forecasts for next year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and unemployment. January is a special month, when the forecast horizon moves to the following calendar year. Instead of deleting the January data when analyzing forecast updates, I propose a periodic version of a test regression for weak-form efficiency. An application of this periodic model for many forecasts across a range of countries shows that in January GDP forecast updates are positive, whereas the forecast updates for unemployment are negative. I document that this January optimism about the new calendar year is detrimental to forecast accuracy. To empirically analyze Okun's law, I also propose a periodic test regression, and its application provides more support for this law.     

社会责任影响下研发创新与医药供应链协调决策

基于医药制造商和医疗机构同时关注消费者剩余视角,把研发创新和医保支付作为影响消费者效用的内生因素,刻画不同决策模型中社会责任对均衡结果的影响.研究表明:无论是医药供应链整体,还是医药制造商单独关注社会责任,都有利于提升研发创新能力;在非合作决策下,医药制造商积极履行社会责任可有效控制药品批发和零售价格,增加利益相关者的...     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

要素资源错配对企业创新的作用机制及实证检验——基于制造业上市公司的经验分析

本文构建理论模型分析了要素资源错配对企业创新的作用机理,并采用2012-2016年中国制造业上市公司数据实证检验了要素资源错配对企业创新的影响效果.研究发现:企业创新存在循环累积效应,要素资源错配是影响企业创新的重要因素,但劳动力和资本资源错配对企业创新具有不同的影响,整体而言,劳动力资源错配显著促进了企业创新.分地区来看,劳动力资源错配对企业创新的作用效果存在中东西部依次递减趋势,中部地区资本资源错配显著抑制了企业创新;分股权性质来看,国有企业和民营企业劳动力资源错配促进了企业创新,民营企业和外资企业资本资源错配抑制了企业创新;分行业来看,不同要素资源错配对企业创新存在行业差异.此外,企业规模、资本密集度、企业年龄和市场集中度也在不同程度上影响了企业创新.     

Nest architecture in polydomous grass-cutting ants (Acromyrmex balzani)

Acromyrmex balzani is a grass-cutting ant species frequently found in Cerrado areas. However, little is known about the architecture of the polydomous nests of this ant. Fifteen A. balzani nests located in a cerrado region in Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil, were studied. The polydomous nests were studied in three ways. First, we investigated the architecture in nests moulded with cement and without moulding. Second, we performed an aggressiveness test among workers in different subnests and nests. Third, we excavated the nest and collected the colony to measure the population, verifying the existence or not of a queen in all nests. A cement mould was made of seven nests to permit better visualization of internal structures such as chambers and tunnels. Eight nests were excavated without moulding and white neutral talc was used to highlight the parts of the nests. After excavation, the depth and dimensions (length, width and height) of the chambers were measured. The results showed that the nests had a single entrance hole whose structure consisted of straw and other plant residues in winter. Mounds of loose soil, if present, were found 6–48 cm from the hole. The number of chambers containing fungus ranged from one to five, with the first being found a few centimetres beneath the ground surface (4 cm) and the last up to a maximum depth of 160 cm. The length of the tunnels ranged from 12 to 28 cm. These tunnels were built in a vertical or inclined position, leading to the chambers. No waste chambers were found, with the waste being deposited externally. Additionally, the polydomous nests contained one to eight subnests. In the aggressiveness test, when concolonial workers were confronted, no aggressiveness was observed. In contrast, when allocolonial workers were confronted, there was a high incidence of aggression among them. Excavation of polydomous nests showed only one queen for each polydomous nest, i.e. subnests with a single queen. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the so far unknown nest architecture of the polydomous grass-cutting ant A. balzani.     

Taming theory with thought experiments: Understanding and scientific progress

I claim that one way thought experiments contribute to scientific progress is by increasing scientific understanding. Understanding does not have a currently accepted characterization in the philosophical literature, but I argue that we already have ways to test for it. For instance, current pedagogical practice often requires that students demonstrate being in either or both of the following two states: 1) Having grasped the meaning of some relevant theory, concept, law or model, 2) Being able to apply that theory, concept, law or model fruitfully to new instances. Three thought experiments are presented which have been important historically in helping us pass these tests, and two others that cause us to fail. Then I use this operationalization of understanding to clarify the relationships between scientific thought experiments, the understanding they produce, and the progress they enable. I conclude that while no specific instance of understanding (thus conceived) is necessary for scientific progress, understanding in general is.